First Pitch – Value Picks – September 10th, 2008
As Joe alluded to yesterday, our focus after this week will start to shift towards next year for those in keeper formats, which means this will be the final Value Picks column of the 2008 season. Hopefully this section has brought some valuable insight for those in all formats and opened your eyes to a waiver wire find that led to a post-season run. By now I’m sure you know the drill, we’ll attempt to identify players that are owned in less than 10% of public leagues, but can potentially help in formats of any size. I’ll highlight one player at each position along with a two start pitcher recommendation for the following week. With the season winding down rosters become a bit more flexible as we become more focused on unlocking a hot streak rather than unlocking long-term potential, so players on current hot streaks with favorable upcoming schedules become prime targets. Let’s see what we can find this week and hopefully close out the season on a strong note!
Catcher – Pablo Sandoval
I wanted to find someone new to tout this week I really did… but he’s STILL only owned in about 17% of leagues so I don’t really know what to do anymore. He’s hitting .358/.375/.519 and making contact at a 90% clip. He’s shown good power with a 10% extra base hit rate and he’s playing everyday because despite being Catcher eligible he’s playing 1B and 3B as well. Sandoval also has the good fortune of not having a single off day over the next two weeks, meaning plenty of opportunities to swing the bat (something he’s doing quite well). I honestly believe he’s the best guy I could recommend, so despite writing about him incessantly for the last 2+ weeks I’m going back to the well again. If Sandoval isn’t available in your league and you’re looking for help elsewhere both John Baker and Gerald Laird are nearly available in every league and they’re each hitting quite well. I like Sandoval the most but both Baker and Laird are getting largely ignored while producing like Top 15 backstops, they deserve to be owned.
First Base – Lyle Overbay
Overbay’s stock still hasn’t rebounded from a dreadful 2007 that came directly after a breakout 2006. We fantasy owners sure can hold a grudge and that has to be a big part of the reason Overbay’s owned in just 13% of leagues, because the production this year (especially in the 2nd half) hasn’t been that bad. Overbay’s hit .289/.361/.491 in the 2nd half along with 8 HR’s, 24 Runs, and 28 RBI’s in 47 games, extrapolate that over a full season and it’s a respectable .289-83-24-96 line. Overbay’s got a nice remaining schedule this week with 5 remaining games in hitter-friendly ballparks, including a double header on Saturday, (CHW, BOS) and then gets the tattered Orioles staff for games to start Week 24. The Jays lineup has been improved of late as well with Rios finding his power stroke again and Vernon Wells back healthy and swinging a nice bat, which is bringing Overbay’s run production back in line with where he’s been in the past. He’s healthy, hitting well, and has a favorable schedule ahead of him and for a guy that is a career .280 hitter with 20 HR power and 80-90 RBI potential over a full season he needs to be owned in far more than 13% of leagues.
Second Base – Asdrubal Cabrera
“We playing mulligans today?” That might be a common phrase amongst most Indians players come October but one more than all the rest would really like a Mulligan on his start to the season. Asdrubal Cabrera was AWFUL at the beginning of the season hitting just .184/.282/.247 before being demoted. But since being recalled Cabrera’s been a completely different player hitting .328/.410/.493 and posting a solid .68 EYE and 9.4% extra base hit rate. Cabrera’s got a double-header ahead of him as well which gives him a tasty 5 game in 4 days schedule with all 5 of those games coming against mediocre pitching staffs in Baltimore and Kansas City. Cabrera doesn’t appear to be slowing down here in September as he’s gone 12-22 with a 1.00 EYE in 7 games. He’s another guy who is red hot, has a great schedule ahead of him, and he even comes with some multi-position flexibility that allows him to be plugged in around the diamond.
Shortstop – Felipe Lopez
More multi-position eligibility fun for those looking for SS help! Remember when Felipe Lopez was a 20-20 candidate posting a .838 OPS in Cincinnati? Yeah, that was a long time ago… but Lopez after bouncing around a bit has found an everyday role with the Cardinals and as seemingly every re-tread the Cardinals get their hands on has immediately started producing. As a Cardinal Lopez has hit .382/.435/.539 in his first 76 AB’s, scoring 16 Runs in 24 games and swiping 3 bases already! He finishes this week in Pittsburgh and starts next week off in Cincinnati which makes for 6 consecutive favorable matchups after these next two mid-week games against the Cubs in which he faces Lilly and Harden. If you’re looking for a guy you can plug in for a number of positions and one that has a good upcoming schedule Lopez makes for a nice add after Thursday’s tilt with the Cubs. He’s owned in just 4% of leagues right now, so he’s out there and readily available to make a late-season contribution in Runs, Avg, and SB’s.
Third Base – Chase Headley
I have to do it… my love for Chase Headley and with his ownership at just 17% has me re-focusing everyone’s attention on an undervalued top prospect. Plus 3B is a bit weak at the moment so Headley’s my pick! The young 3B/OF has struggled with plate discipline of late but he’s collecting hits, hitting over .300 in September and collecting multi-hit games in half of his September games. He had a mini-streak in August that made me think he was busting out and some of that was aided by a trip to Colorado where he went 5-11 with 3 BB’s in 3 games. Well a look ahead at the Padres schedule has Headley heading to Colorado again to start next week after a 4 game set against the Giants struggling rotation (with the exception of Cy Lincecum), and that set in Colorado is followed by 3 more in Washington which should provide some more favorable matchups as well. That’s a 3 series stretch against teams in the bottom third of the league in ERA and OPS allowed, which should provide Headley, who I like to call Longoria-lite, with a strong 9 game stretch that should catapult him into a hot streak to finish the season.
Outfield – Nelson Cruz
A guy with a career minor league line of .298/.367/.539 and a 2008 line of .342/.429/.695 had to start hitting at the big league level at some point, and it appears that time is now. Cruz has been an absolute monster since getting recalled from AAA, hitting .326/.404/.609 and most impressively he’s doing it with pretty good plate discipline posting a .67 EYE. He’s only striking out in 19.5% of his AB’s which is a HUGE improvement for a guy that struck out in nearly 30% of his major league AB’s before this year. His upcoming schedule is a difficult one with Morrow and then the Angels staff for the rest of this week, but his incredible production needs to be owned in way more than the 10% of leagues he’s currently owned in.
Two Start Pitcher – Brandon Morrow
It feels like I’m coming full circle here after suggesting Morrow as a relief pitcher likely to take over the closer’s role in this space a few months ago, now I’m recommending him as a tremendous two start option next week. Morrow’s owned in 37% of ESPN Leagues which jumped after his incredible debut and I expect that number to keep rising as more owners look to Morrow for his 2 starts next week. Morrow may not be in the same class as Joba Chamberlain in terms of prospect status, but he’s not far away and that’s the easiest comparison I can come up with. Morrow’s got a tremendous ceiling working off a terrific fastball that sits at 94-97 and can touch 100 with good late movement, and he has good enough command of his secondary pitches to keep hitters off balanced. He pitches in a tremendous home park and next week, though on the road, gets two bottom-feeder offenses in KC and OAK. There isn’t a format I wouldn’t start Morrow in next week and I think he’ll be among the best options in all of fantasy for Week 24. For the 63% of you out there that can still go grab him, do so now and reap the benefits for the championship drive.
Well that's it for the Value Picks for this week and for the 2008 season. Hopefully this section helped find some waiver wire gems that became staples of a championship run. If you have any suggestions on how to revise our format or any comments on the types of things you'd like to see covered in this space please feel free to write in. We take your comments and suggestions very seriously and do our best to tailor our service to our loyal subscriber base.
