Jonathan Sanchez - Sanchez didn't last long on Wednesday, going just 3.2 IP while giving up 6 ER, 6 hits, and 3 BB while striking out 4. The risk profile for Sanchez has remained consistent all year long: Quality Start % <50% (13-for-28 to be exact), high ERA of 4.71, with the potential for high K totals in any given game with a K/9 of 8.96 (about 1 K shy of a strikeout an inning). He's had a DL stint this year and hasn't been able to go deep into the game since coming off the list, making him a risky start going forward. His next start comes against the Rockies on Tuesday. While he's on-pace to be a 2-start pitcher, the Giants could juggle-it-up and start Kevin Correia in his place to finish the season. In other words, don't consider his 2-start status a foregone conclusion just because of timing.
Stephen Drew - A 4-hit night puts a fire next to Drew's name for now. For the season, Drew has really improved over last year's results. The SS is hitting .287 with an .815 OPS, 0.62 FPI, 18 HR, and 60 RBI. That's quite the improvement from last year's .238 average, .680 OPS, 0.49 FPI, 12 HR, and 60 RBI. In fact, while he received a ton of hype in his first full season last year, I believe his performance out of the SS slot has been under-valued and he should be recognized for a solid fantasy season. His value is going way up heading into 2009 as he now can hit for power and average out of a weak SS position.
Ryan Doumit - Doumit is finishing the season strong as he proves to be a top-10 fantasy catcher heading into 2009. His numbers are good enough or just about any position as he posts a 0.70 FPI for 2008 with an .863 OPS and .323 average. For September, he's been just as good, hitting .326 with 12 RBI and a .389 OBP. If you were fortunate enough to grab Doumit for cheap throughout the season, you are definitely benefiting from surprise catcher value this year (and it could be enough to be launching you to a championship). Thinking about 2009, it will be difficult to name too many catchers who will have his value.
Matt Kemp - The HR is coming, but when? Kemp had 9 HR from July 1st to August 31st, but has not hit one since August 30th. That's 53 straight ABs without a HR, making him a great candidate (considering the law of average) for him to hit one REALLY soon. A 4-for-5 night on Wednesday certainly seems like a good starting point for him to find a groove. If I was a betting man, I would say he has a few long-balls in his bat over the final couple of weeks. With this slump, his HR/AB has dropped to 38.4, but heading into September it was more like 32.4.
JJ Hardy - Hardy had only one multi-hit game in September heading into Wednesday. He now has two. He went 3-for-5 with a double and an RBI, raising his September average to .224. Even with his low average, Hardy has 4 solo HR and and a .463 slugging. In total, Hardy is a modest average, high power guy who should yield some decent value in 2009 drafts after back-to-back seasons of 24+ HR. His HR/AB rates have been really consistent year-over-year, despite streakiness throughout both seasons. In 2007, Hardy average a HR for every 22.8 AV and is dead-on this year with a 22.3 rate. Same goes for average as he finished last year at .277 and is currently at .281 this year.
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