Its the first week of head-to-head playoffs and if you're like me, you're stressed. But hopefully, you have pulled-out to an early lead and can start thinking about cruising into Week #2 with a little momentum. This certainly doesn't mean you can relax. Now is as important as ever to manage your team efficiently, effectively, and smartly.
A couple of weeks ago I took a stab at identifying 2 start pitchers for the Fantasy Week beginning August 25th that could help your fantasy team pull-out a late-season category or two to help propel you into the playoffs. Obviously, its tough enough stressing over my own fantasy team. So to give my "advice" for all of our subscribers at an integral time in the fantasy season definitely caused me to bite a nail or two that week. Luckily, that week's Value Picks had relatively good results. Here's how it looked:
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Jair Jurrjens: No decisions, 1-for-2 in quality starts, 9.00 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, K/9 of 8.0
Wandy Rodriguez: 1 W, 0 L, 1-for-2 in quality starts, 0.78 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, K/9 of 10.0
Jeff Francis: 1 W, 0 L, 2-for-2 in quality starts, 1.93 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, K/9 of 5.1
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Zach Miner: Changed to only one start week - 1 W, 0 L, 1-for-1 in quality starts, 1.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, K/9 of 3.0
Scott Baker: 1 W, 1 L, 2-for-2 in quality starts, 2.84 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, K/9 of 5.0
Zack Greinke: Changed to only one start week - No decisions, 1-for-1 in quality starts, 0.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, K/9 of 7.5
Total for 6 pitchers: 10 GS, 60.1 IP, 2.69 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 4-1 record, K/9 6.6, quality start 80% (8-for-10).
Not bad. So, let's try to catch lightning in a bottle once again and shoot for comparable results. Once again, 2-start pitcher value picks for next fantasy week starting September 8th, 2008. Again, make sure to check Lyle's 14-day Expected Pitching Rotations document for the most up-to-date pitching probables.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers - 9/8 @ SD, 9/14 @ Col) - Kershaw was win-less in back-to-back starts and was sent down to Triple-A at the end of August. He was then recalled from Las Vegas only to hurl 7.0 IP, 3 ER to earn the W against the Padres yesterday. He'll face San Diego again next week and there's plenty of reason to believe the 20-year-old prospect will continue to deliver. He's 6 for his last 8 in quality starts, going 3-2 during those starts with a 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9 (K/I of 0.95). And, after being sent down to Triple-A, his ownership percentages are hovering around 50%, leaving plenty of room for a possible cheap free agent pick-up.
Randy Wolf (Houston Astros - 9/9 vs Pit, 9/14 vs. ChC) - Wolf is always inconsistent when it comes to posting quality starts. But he's just coming off a quality one against the Cardinals, hurling 6.0 IP and giving up just 1 ER on 3 hits. For fantasy owners, Wolf puts up solid K numbers, averaging a K/9 this season of 7.9 (K/I of 0.88). If nothing else, he should get you K's and his first start against Pittsburgh should be favorable enough to weather the potential volatile start against the Cubs.
Jorge Campillo (Atlanta Braves - 9/9 vs Col, 9/14 @ NYM) - There are relatively few options this time around for the NL, so I might be reaching with Campillo. After all, he has had 5 consecutive starts without a quality one. But, he he has yet to face the Rockies this season, adding the element of surprise to the Colorado lineup. As for the Mets, he has a cumulative 8.0 IP against them this season (6.0 starting, 2.0 in relief) and has given up only 3 hits and no runs. His one start was a quality one back in May and he earned the W.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Jeremy Sowers (Cleveland Indians - 9/9 @ Bal, 9/14 vs. KC) - Sowers has given up 4 ER or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. In August, he has one terrible start that is throwing off his numbers just a little (its a 7 ER, 3.2 IP outing against Texas). Back that out, and he has a 4.70 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He's not a K, only average a K/9 of 3.1 in August, but two favorable match-ups against the Orioles and the Royals makes him a decent value pick option out of the potential list from the AL.
Nick Blackburn (Minnesota Twins - 9/9 vs KC, 9/14 @ Bal) - Blackburn's ownership % has steadily increased from the 20% level to the current level of 60% throughout the season. And, with two nice match-ups against weaker teams of the Royals and the Orioles, he becomes an interesting match-up at a very important time. For the season, he has a 3.75 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and a K/I of about 0.50. He's only 50% in quality starts this month (3-for-6) which is likely keeping owners away due to inconsistency, but he's a decent calculated pick based on a healthy blend of opposing match-up and the fact he pitches for a playoff contending team.
Zach Miner (Detroit Tigers - 9/8 vs Oak, 9/14 @ Chi) - Let's try this one again. His last start was a quality one and he'll get to face the worst offensive team in the league in the Oakland A's to start-off the week. Compared to the remaining options, Miner becomes a solid value pick, even despite a potentially unfavorable start the following Sunday against the White Sox.
-- Joe
