Last week, Drew and I dedicated two First Pitch articles to fantasy keepers. We solely focused on hitters in both the AL (found here) and Drew's NL analysis (found here). This week, we'll focus on the same premise but turn our attention to the pitcher's mound. As a reminder, we will specifically cite players in their few years of the Big Leagues that will either maintain or increase in fantasy value going into 2009. The list will include starters, closers, and maybe even a few really valuable middle-relievers for that ever-elusive hold statistic. As a side note, this is my last First Pitch of the season. Just wanted to thank all of our loyal readers for asking great questions, challenging our opinions throughout the year, and providing suggestions to keep Insider Baseball the best fantasy site on the Web.
Scott Baker (Scott Baker) - Scott Baker is the second Twins pitcher to make this list (other than Francisco Liriano). After this season's performance, he at least deserves consideration to be carried-over to 2009. In 158 IP, Baker is 9-4 with a 3.69 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and a 7.3 K/9. His quality start % is 16-for-26 (62%), ranking 25th in the big leagues in QS% for pitchers with at least 20 GS or more. One alarming note for Baker that has been well-documented throughout the year is his GO/AO rate of 0.57. In other words, he gives up almost twice as many air-out as ground-ball outs, which has led to a rather high 1.14 HR/9. At that GO/AO rate, the long-ball will catch-up with him at some point. But for now, young keeper-worthy SP are rare and Baker deserves to at least make this list as someone to ponder.
Jesse Carlson (Toronto Blue Jays) - Probably the least-known guy on this list, Jesse Carlson has made a big splash in leagues valuing the Hold. In 67 appearances for the Blue Jays this season, Carlson has 19 holds while posting a 1.74 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a K/I of 0.93. He has nasty stuff and should be the main setup guy for BJ Ryan heading into 2009. With a history of injury problems for Ryan, Carlson has the potential to grab the closer's role in 2009 as well if Ryan is unable to stay healthy for the full-season. While most other leagues will simply let Carlson dip back into free agency (if they have heard of him to begin with), those leagues with the Hold metric should consider Carlson, in his first season in the big leagues, a talent who has keeper value heading into 2009.
Joba Chamberlain (New York Yankees) - Spin the wheel and try to guess what role Joba will play for the 2009 New York Yankees. Its really anyone's guess at this point whether he will be a middle-reliever setup guy for Mariano Rivera, a starter, or maybe even the closer if Rivera gets injured at some point. If you're in a league that counts Holds, this is a no-brainer. You will get certainly get Holds out of Joba, who converted 18 this year while splitting time between the bullpen and the rotation. My guess is that the Yankees, who will likely lose a couple of this year's starters to free agency or retirement, will put Joba in the rotation. As a starter in 2008, Joba hurled 65.1 IP and posted a 2.76 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a K/9 of 10.2. His dominance since Day 1 has been extremely impressive and if he does become a starter, he will definitely be a big-time impact fantasy player in some capacity next season.
Matt Garza (Tampa Bay Rays) - Garza has been floating around since 2006 so technically this is his 3rd year, but this is the first year where he posted over 100 IP. In fact, Garza has started 29 games in 179.2 IP, averaging over 6.0 IP per outing while earning 11 wins on a 3.66 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Not bad for his first "full" season in a big-league uniform. I'm a little concerned by a low K/BB of 2.2 and GO/AO of just 1.01 (especially in Tampa Bay), but his K-Rate is still an ok 6.3 K/9. He's not my top pick as a keeper, but definitely worth consideration since he is only 24-years old and has plenty of room for growth.
Phil Hughes (New York Yankees) - Much of Phiil Hughes' season was cut-short this season due to a rib injury, but that doesn't keep him from being a big-time talent with a ton of potential heading into 2009. Its almost best not to walk through his 2008 numbers, as I believe they are convoluted and don't tell the real story about his potential as a future ace (and 26.0 total innings is hardly an indication of what is to come). He's considered to have future ace potential, which makes him too valuable to simply release him to the free agency fantasy pool.
Jon Lester (Boston Red Sox) - In Lester's first season of 100+ innings pitched, he has been absolutely fantastic for the Red Sox and for fantasy owners. He has a 15-6 record, a 3.26 ERA, and a 1.30 WHIP. He has logged a ton of innings at a young age (204.1 IP this season and counting) which is always a preliminary concern for potentially wearing-out over the long-run, but there are no signs of that happening. Pitching for a great team with decent strikeout potential (K-rate of 6.5), he's a no-doubt keeper consideration.
Francisco Liriano (Minnesota Twins) - Francisco Liriano was kind of "tossed to the side" this season as he sat out all of 2007 and some of 2008 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. While he hasn't been as dominant (yet) as he was a couple of years ago, the 70+ innings he has posted have shown signs that the old Liriano should return in 2009. Even as he continues the recovery process, he is still posting a 3.39 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 7.8 K/9. In non-keeper leagues, Liriano will be considered a No.2/3 fantasy starting pitcher with tons of upside. Because he has the chance to return to his dominant of 2006 when he posted a 2.16 ERA in over 120 IP, he deserves keeper status.
David Price (Tampa Bay Rays) - In his major league debut as a starter, David Price proved last night why he deserves serious keeper consideration heading into 2009. While he only has a few games under his belt at the Big League level, Price has the stuff to be an impact pitcher from day #1 in 2009. Last night, he went 5.1 IP against Baltimore and gave up 1 ER, 4 hits, 3 K's, and 3 BB's on an 88 total pitch count. Not bad for his first game as a starter. But to get the big picture of Price's talent, let's look at his numbers in his first year in the minors. In 109 IP, Price posted a 12-1 record with a 2.30 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and a K/I of 1.0. He induced groundball outs at a GO/AO rate of 1.45 and held opposing hitters to just .228. He's a long-term keeper and needs to be carried over to 2009 on your roster.
-- Joe
