Welcome to the first of four editions of "First Pitch Keepers." Over the final two weeks of the season, Drew and I will take you through the AL and the NL and give you our takes on guys you should consider holding in keeper leagues. This week will be hitters and next week will be dedicated to pitchers. We specifically are going to focus on players either in their 1st or 2nd year of the league that will either maintain or increase in fantasy value going into 2009. I tried my best to identify the top guys from most positions on the field, but also didn't want to force any guys onto this list that didn't deserve consideration. So, with all of the formalities out of the way, let's dig right into the list (in no particular order).
Alexei Ramirez - He's 6'3", 185 pounds (soaking wet), but Alexei Ramirez simply plays the game the right way. If you've watched any White Sox games this year, you know what I'm talking about. He's one of Ozzie's favorites and rightfully so. The 2B, SS, and OF eligible Ramirez posts a 0.64 FPI right now through a mixture of power and speed. He has a total of 17 HR with 12 stolen bases in 21 opportunities. With 450+ AB under his belt at the big-league level, Ramirez is poised to have a solid 2009 campaign for a solid White Sox team. He's a good value keeper at multiple weak positions.
Jacoby Ellsbury - With all of the hype surrounding Ellsbury, it feels like he has been around the league forever. But, as we all know, he only has 600 big-league AB to his name with 500 of them coming this season. Ellsbury has a 0.64 FPI with most of his value coming in the stolen base department. Through September 15th, he has 48 stolen bases in 56 chances while posting a .321 OBP. With maturity should come a boost in OBP, which should in turn lead to an even greater SB rate. He already has 85 runs scored with 2 weeks left in the season and at the top of the Red Sox lineup to start 2009, should score 100+. He's too valuable to let go, especially in rotisserie leagues because of the stolen base factor.
Dustin Pedroia - Given his first two seasons in the league, Pedroia could very well be at the very top of this keeper list. He's definitely vying for MVP consideration with a 0.76 FPI, .875 OPS, 17 stolen bases, and 200 hits (and counting). The numbers do the talking better than I can do the writing. Do what you can to lock this one up, but expect numbers somewhere between his first season and second season (0.70 FPI or so).
Evan Longoria - Another marquee name makes the list. Its pretty incredible to think that Longoria only joined the league in May (given all of the hype leading up to the 2008 season), but Longoria did not disappoint. Aside from a hand injury that kept him out of the lineup for a good chunk of August and the first two weeks of September, Longoria has a 0.71 FPI while hitting .281 in 392 AB. He has a 17.8 HR/AB with 22 HR with 74 RBI and a .880 OPS. Give him a full season of 550 AB, extrapolate his numbers, and you have a big-time talent out of your 3B slot. No surprise that he makes the list and unfortunately, his freakish injury woes keep his numbers modest. I'd like to see his 4.2 PA/K rate come down a bit, as he has over 100 strikeouts already heading into the final weeks. But I'd gladly accept 150 K's if Longoria can put-up a 30 HR season in 2009.
Mike Aviles - I really enjoy watching Mike Aviles play. even though he doesn't get much attention in Kansas City, he deserves some attention for your 2009 fantasy team. The Royals' SS is hitting .322 in 367 AB with 35 extra base hits out of 118 total hits for an .816 OPS. His overall FPI of 0.67 has been consistent since getting the full-time nod at SS and, like the aforementioned Alexei Ramirez, just seems like an all-around solid player. He only has 6 SB in 8 attempts, so speed isn't his game, but he should continue to hit for solid average with a proven BHIP% of .295. He's a good value keeper who should continue to put up decent average numbers for roto players, but don't expect much in the power or overall run/RBI production department. But out of the SS position, its a decent call.
Josh Hamilton - This one is probably too obvious, but it is only his 2nd year and he has had an MVP-caliber season. Depending on how keepers are valued in your league, this is a no-brainer. As a quick summary, Hamilton is hitting .304 with a 0.75 FPI, .909 OPS, and 18.6 HR/AB rate. Enough said.
Good luck the rest of the season.
-- Joe
