Reports yesterday said Torii Hunterwas out with a head injury so I kept him out of my lineup for today and, quite naturally, he went 3-4 with 1 R, 3 RBI and a SB. Hunter has been seeing the ball really well recently, batting .411 (14-34) with 4 doubles, 5 R, 6 RBI and 2 SB in his last 9 games. His season line reads .283/19/71/77/13 and he looks to finish with a somewhat similar line to 2007. He’s almost certainly no going to reach the 28 HR and 107 RBI marks but the difference from last year to this year is actually due only to a couple percentage points in FB% and HR/FB% (down about 2 percent in each) and the fact that he’ll play in almost 23 fewer games, which equals somewhere around 92 AB. The discrepancy in those fewer AB isn’t enough to make up for a difference in 9 HR but it would tack on about 4-5 more for Hunter by season’s end. I’m curious to see how he finishes the grind of the year because we’ve seen a drop in Hunters FB% and HR/FB rate in each of the past 3 years. He will be 34 years old next season and I certainly think it’s within the realm of possibility that his 28-30 HR seasons are behind him at this point. However, I don’t think there’s any doubt he’ll still be good for 23-26 HR with 85+ RBI and 10-15 SB for at least another 3 years, so his value is still good but not as high as it was coming into 2008.
Alex Rodriguez looks like he’s on a mission to finish the season strong and erase an absolutely horrid August as he hit his first homerun of September yesterday and 2nd in the last 3 games. A-Rod has back-to-back multi-hit games to kick off the final season and is batting .500 (6-12) in the last 3 contests with 2 HR, 6 RBI and 5 R. The biggest differences for Rodriguez in 2008 compared to 2007 is a fairly significant drop in BB/K (.79 to .54), a substantial drop in HR/FB (27% to 21%), and thus also a sizeable drop in ISO (.331 to .270). All of those numbers are still pretty fantastic and also remember he’ll play around 20 less games than he did last year due to his quad injury in June. That absence accounts for 7 HR and at least 12-15 RBI, putting his final projected line if he had played 158 games closer to 44 HR and 120+ RBI rather than his probably finish of 35-37 HR and 100+ RBI. Rodriguez’s biggest problem this year, both fantasy wise and (more so) in reality, has been his inability to hit with RISP. In 2007, he hit .333 (18 HR and 138 RBI) with RISP and .318 (12 HR 46 RBI) with RISP/2 Outs compared to .296 (18 HR) with the bases empty. This year, he’s hitting a miserable .255 with RISP, .250 with RISP/2 Outs and a horrid .213 with the bases chucked (3 hits in 13 chances, none for extra bases). Formula in 2009 to repeat 2007 success: Better patience at the plate, don’t get hurt and get your clutch ability back.
John Danks suffered his 3rd consecutive loss last night and 4th in his last 5 starts as he surrendered 4 ER on 8 H in 4 IP with 2 BB and 3 K. He has really dipped in the second half this season with an ERA of almost 5.00 and a record of 3-4. His main struggles have simply been control as his BB% has risen almost an entire point (3.70 from 2.71) and he has allowed 1.18 hits per IP as opposed to his first half of .88 H/IP. Danks will most likely finish the season with a far more disappointing 2nd half than his start to the season, but I do believe this kid has the stuff to be at least a solid number 3 all year next year.
I took a chance in drafting B. J. Ryan late in one of my drafts this season and the minimal risk has paid enormous dividends. Ryan collected his 26th save last night with a completely clean 9th and 2 K’s, bringing his season totals to 2-4, 2.57 ERA, 8.63 K/9 and 26 SV. Ryan has blown just 3 saves all year, good enough to tie for second among all the everyday closers. He’s had almost no issues with his surgically repaired elbow and looks good enough to be a solid everyday closer as long as his innings are limited anywhere from 50-60. I think if he passes the 60 IP mark from here on out in the rest of his career he may be susceptible to further injury on that elbow as he turns 34 years of age next season.
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