Carlos Beltran is another Met getting hot at the right time as he collected his 4th multi-hit game in 6 tries last night with a 3-3 performance, including a HR and 3 RBI. Despite hitting in the .260-.270 range for much of the year, Beltran has upped his BA to .274 now and his other numbers are 16/76/80/17. He has been an enormous disappointment in the power categories for you owners that drafted him and he certainly isn’t going to reach the 30 HR mark this season. Looking at his numbers from 2005 (when he finished with just 16 HR in 151 games), the reasons for the power outage this time around are more of the same and fairly obvious. His FB rate is down 10 percent from last season, his HR/FB rate is down almost 5 percent and his IFFB rate is up slightly. I don’t think Beltran simply forgot how to hit for power, he just hasn’t had the kind of numbers we know he’s capable of producing. I don’t expect this kind of power outage from him next year, especially considering his BB/K this year is at a 2nd career best mark (.92). If he keeps going like he is now and finishes strong, he may be one of the top candidates to draft early again next season for a rebound power year.
Ben Sheets was absolutely dominant last night as he pitched a CG shutout, allowing just 5 H, walking none and striking out 6. We got an e-mail from a reader earlier this past week asking if he should make a trade for Sheets and Zambrano where he would give up some top keeper prospects (including David Price and Nick Adenhart). I advised that he didn’t make the trade, especially considering Price’s talent, the fact that the manager was already 1st in the league and just trying to lock it up, and also because Sheets’ second half numbers through his career are not great. I still stick to that assessment despite his amazing outing last night, especially since it came against the perpetually terrible Washington Nationals (with the exception of Lastings Milledge lately). Sheets is having a great season but he’s not a guy I would give those kind of prospects up for, even if he’s coupled for Zambrano. However, if you’re in a league that doesn’t have keeper picks and you’re looking to trade for that kind of talent, do it.
After a 10-game slump dropped J.J. Hardy’s batting average from .299 to .278 (3-38, .078 BA) he seems to be warming up again with three consecutive multi-hit games, including a 2-5 performance with a HR, 1 RBI and 2 R last night. Hardy is having a very solid season, helped by a huge surge in June and July when he hit .327 (59-180) with 13 HR, 33 RBI and 33 R. Also recall that June and July were easily Hardy’s worst months in 2007 when he hit a miserable .231 with just 3 HR. His season line now reads .283/17/51/57 and the strong summer push can mean nothing but good things for the former 2001 2nd round pick. Hardy has plenty of potential and is entering his prime years. Watch out for a possible huge season from him in 2009 when Braun and Fielder will also be a year older and the supporting Corey Hart putting up another predictably solid 5-tool season. Hardy could be an unexpected power force in Milwaukee next season and is almost guaranteed not to be drafted anywhere remotely in the vicinity of most high profile SS/MI.
Jimmy Rollins finally had a game befitting of his talents last night (minus a power display) as he went 4-4 with 2 R and 1 SB. Rollins has been scuffling at the plate a bit to start August but seems to be coming on again with 4 multi-hit games in his last 5. We have certainly seen a lot less power out of him this year than in the last two seasons but I think this may be what is in Rollins’ future for the most part. The 2006 and 2007 campaigns were the first times he hit 20-plus HR and he smashed 25 and 30 respectively (a huge jump from the previous career high of 14). However, they say a major leaguer normally starts to hi his prime at around 26 or 27, so the spike in power is not too much of a surprise. Statistically though, his FB rate was over 8% higher than his career average (back to normal this season) and his HR/FB was also almost 3% higher. The drop in those categories, coupled with a far higher GB/FB (1.43) rate and IFFB rate (13.5%) have led to the precipitous drop in power for 2008. I think Rollins might make a push for 15 this year but he’d be very fortunate to get there, especially considering the fact that he has 2 HR total since June 16th (44 games, 183 AB). Right now, you have to be looking for R, SB and BA as Rollins’ main contributions to your team down the stretch. Any power surge will be a bonus.
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