Anibal Sanchez:
Marlins fans went to the stadium, err… couch, angry last night at the missed opportunity to acquire Manny Ramirez but probably went to bed excited about Anibal Sanchez’s return. Sanchez looked great on Thursday night through the first 5 innings allowing just 4 hits and 1 BB while striking out 4 and allowing just 1 ER. He appeared to tire in the 6th a bit as he allowed 2 hits, 1 BB, and an ER before being pulled with the bases loaded. When healthy Sanchez has flashed adequate peripherals in the BB and K departments along with an ability to limit the long ball pitching in a spacious home park and at times he’s looked tremendous (including the no hitter in 2006), but he’s often out-pitched his peripherals and he’s returning from an arm injury. My perception is there might be a bit more perceived value than actual value in Sanchez the rest of the way. I think he’s a spot start option in traditional formats and roster-able in deeper leagues but nothing more. His lack of the K potential his teammate Josh Johnson has makes him a bit less interesting for fantasy purposes. Regardless he’s back, he looks healthy, and he deserves significant attention for those playing in deep formats.
Emilio Bonifacio:
With news that the Nationals are likely to release Felipe Lopez and Paul LoDuca, Emilio Bonifacio gets an immediate spike in value. Bonifacio’s gotten off to a ridiculous start since coming over to Washington by going 13-28 with 4 SB’s in his first 7 games. Bonifacio’s an intriguing fantasy option because of the speed potential he brings to the table having swiped 40+ bags at every full season he’s ever had in the minor leagues and with the Nationals not exactly a powerhouse lineup Bonifacio should have the green light the rest of the way to showcase his skills. He deserves immediate attention in deeper formats because of the speed element and looks to be in line for plenty of playing time down the stretch.
Derrek Lee:
There are a lot of exciting things happening if you’re a Cubs fan these days but one of the few things to remain concerned about is Derrek Lee. At age 32, Lee is starting to show some slight signs of a deterioration in skill. David Regan touched on Lee’s declining power a few weeks back but just to put some numbers to it, Lee’s extra base hit rate has dropped from 11.6% last year to 11.1% this year and outside of a big April, Lee hasn’t topped the .450 Slugging % mark in any of the following 3 months. Lee’s power drop has also come at the expense of an increased GB Rate, up 3% over the last few years’ average. Along with the rising GB Rate, DLee has shown a declining EYE that has come at the expense of decreasing BB and K Rates. The higher contact rate and fewer walks suggests Lee is employing a less patient approach at the plate and the P/PA #’s suggest the same as Lee is seeing .13 less pitches/plate appearance than his career average. Whether this is a less selective approach that is impacting his ability to find the right pitch to drive or a declining bat speed that is forcing Lee to cheat a bit and make contact earlier in the count, only a scout could tell. But regardless the power decline is readily apparent in both Lee’s actual numbers and his peripherals.
Andy LaRoche:
The guy whose value increases the most with the massive Bay-Ramirez 3 way deal is probably one of the smaller names in the deal: Andy LaRoche. LaRoche gets to team with his big brother in Pittsburgh but more importantly he gets to play, which is something the Dodgers couldn’t figure out. LaRoche is a pretty impressive prospect, showing tremendous plate discipline at the minor league level with above average power as well. He posted a .294/.380/.517 line in 1800 minor league AB’s that included a .83 EYE and an 11.5% extra base hit rate. He hasn’t had much success at the big league level so far, but he’s shown good plate patience .97 in 152 AB’s and he’s suffered from some terrible luck at the big league level (.214 BHIP%). He should get everyday AB’s as the Pirates can slide LaRoche in immediately at 3B and let Jose Castillo take some AB’s at 2B for the banged up Freddy Sanchez. He’s worth an immediate add in NL only formats and should have already been snatched up in dynasty leagues. He’s quietly one of the better prospects in the game who just lost some luster because his team didn’t give him a fair shake.
Jason Bay:
By now I’m sure you’re aware Bay has been traded to the Red Sox for some guy named Ramirez, but what does this mean for his fantasy value? The first inclination is that the move to the Red Sox would be a huge boon to Bay’s value based on the supporting cast, but the Pirates have actually score the exact same amount of runs/game as the Red Sox this year. So the lineup boost shouldn’t add too much to Bay’s value as he’s actually moving from a pretty good lineup to… well… a pretty good lineup. There’s a slight negative impact moving from the NL to the AL as the AL is still the superior league from a pitching perspective, but that’s likely negated by the improvement in home ballpark, so on the whole we’re looking at negligible differences in Bay’s actual value. With that in mind though there’s going to be a pretty big increase in Bay’s perceived value, which actually creates a nice selling opportunity for Bay owners. The Pirates offense is really underrated this year and the Red Sox are well… the Red Sox, so now might be a time to float out Bay’s name and see if you can get a slightly better overall player in return. I say “slightly” because Bay has been a Top 50 hitter throughout the season, but now might be a nice opportunity to upgrade based on perception. I’m already seeing a number of other sites proclaiming the big boost in value based on Bay’s switch of lineups, which as hard as it is to believe isn’t a fact thanks to the differences in the leagues. Bay’s production should continue to be in the Top 40-50 hitter range as it has been all season, but his perception has probably crept into the Top 30.
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