First Pitch – Value Picks – August 27th, 2008
Alright gang, by the end of this week we’ll be in the final month of the season. At this point it’s become clear whether you’re playing out the string or making a push for fantasy glory. With September call-ups right around the corner and some non-contending teams already preparing for next year, the waiver wire continues to get infused with new talent. As it is every Wednesday, it’s our job to help comb through the waiver wire and find those golden nuggets that will lead you to the promise land. By now you know the routine, I’ll touch on a player at each position that is ideally owned in less than 10% of public leagues, but can make an impact in all league formats. So whether you’re patching a hole via injury or looking for an upgrade to a slumping player, hopefully some of the names below can help fill the gaps in your lineup.
Catcher – Pablo Sandoval
The Catcher-eligible non-catcher has long been a favorite of fantasy analysts. The general rule of thumb is: if the bats good enough to play at another position and the player is avoiding the wear and tear of the Catching position; there is usually some good value in that type of player. This is exactly the case with recently promoted Pablo Sandoval as he’s currently playing 3B and a bit of 1B for the Giants while blocked by incumbent Bengie Molina. Since his call-up Sandoval’s hit .417/.421/.528 showing terrific contact skills (94.4%) and good power XBH Rate of 11.1%. Granted this is a pretty small sample but Sandoval has shown intriguing power at the minor league level as well. Between High A and AA this season, Sandoval picked up 60 extra base hits in 448 AB’s for a 13.4% Rate. He’s young and inexperienced, but he’s hit everywhere he’s been this year and he’s playing everyday and he’s owned in less than 1% of ESPN leagues. In 2 catcher leagues or deep NL only leagues you can do worse than a catcher eligible guy who has hit over .340 on the season across 3 different levels.
First Base – Ryan Garko
This one really is more for mixed leaguers as there aren’t any super-deep sleepers out there at 1B right now that I have a lot of confidence in, so we’ll talk about a player whose value is rising rapidly. Garko was a popular pre-season sleeper type after hitting 21 HR’s in just under 500 AB’s last year as he figured to take advantage of a potent Indians lineup that would provide plenty of RBI opportunities. Unfortunately things didn’t go as planned as Garko has been horrible much of the season (not hitting above .265 in any month) and the Indians lineup has been decimated by injuries to Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez. Of late though Garko’s gotten things going: hitting safely in his last 11 games and in 22 of his last 27. During this span Garko’s raised his average 21 points from .237 to .256 while racking up 20 RBI’s. Much of Garko’s struggles this season can be directly attributed to a drop in his power rates. After posting a 10.5% XBH Rate in 2007, Garko’s posted an anemic 6.9% Rate, but in this 27 game span its risen back up to 9.1%. He’s not all the way back just yet but he’s a lot closer to the player you drafted back in March and he’s still available in over 55% of ESPN leagues.
Second Base – Freddy Sanchez
Just ignore the first 3 months of the season because quite frankly I have no idea who the imposter in Freddy Sanchez’s uniform was, but it wasn’t the high batting average 2B’s machine we’ve been used to out of the 2B position. However, after the All Star Break, the real Freddy Sanchez seems to have returned, hitting .339 with 9 2B’s in 115 AB’s (a 7.8% Rate). The high average, high 2B’s rate 2B we used to know and love appears back to his usual ways. He’s not walking much at all (in fact he hasn’t walked since June 15th), but he’s making up for it with the usual great contact rates (93%). For those in search of guys that boost average down the stretch and those in leagues that reward 2B’s specifically, Sanchez makes for a nice late-season addition, as he’s owned in just 10% of ESPN leagues.
Shortstop – Nick Punto
Punto’s not a “sexy” SS or MI option but he’s a solid contributor in 3 categories (BA, Runs, and SB’s) and he’s been on fire of late, hitting .287 with 18 Runs and 4 SB’s in the last month. He’s stolen more than 15 bases in each of the last two seasons and now that he’s been getting on base more often, he’s back attempting SB’s again, 5 here in August and 6 in the last 30 days. HR’s and RBI’s aren’t in the cards for Punto, but the other 3 categories he can make solid contributions in and I bet there’s not *that* much difference between he and a guy like Ryan Theriot the rest of the way, but Punto is owned in just 11% of leagues.
Third Base – Willy Aybar
Evan Longoria is making good progress on his way back from a broken bone in his wrist and expects to be back possibly as early as the end of this week, so this is a short term move in nature, but Willy Aybar continues to deserve attention. Aybar’s filled in admirably since the Longoria injury racking up multi-hit games in 7 of the 15 starts. He’s scored 8 times, knocked out 3 HR’s, and driven in 10 while posting a respectable 5:7 BB:K Ratio. We’ve talked about the good power/plate patience combination that Aybar has always provided throughout his career and even with Longoria due back soon he should continue to get AB’s as a versatile utility guy. In some leagues he qualifies as a MI which brings a bit more value to the table as well.
Outfielder – Ben Francisco
This ownership % is likely to jump after last night’s 2 HR game, but how the heck is Ben Francisco only owned in 9% of leagues? Francisco’s now up to 14 HR’s, 57 Runs and 50 RBI’s on the year despite playing in just 98 games. He’s hitting a respectable .288 so he even helps there, while adding a handful of SB’s. On a per game average he’s a solid 4th or 5th OF in Mixed leagues and he’s been red hot here in August hitting .326/.363/.512. The power is very much real as Francisco hits an overwhelming amount of FB’s (over 65%) and has an overall XBH Rate of 10.9%. He doesn’t really hurt you anywhere and adds a bit of contribution everywhere. He also has a treaty 8 game week coming up in Week 24, which those in H2H leagues may want to take advantage of.
Two Start Starting Pitcher – Greg Maddux
My 10% threshold doesn’t leave any two start pitcher’s I’d be comfortable recommending for next week, so we’re raising the bar a bit to include “the professor”. Maddux is owned in 31% of leagues but with a 1.24 WHIP and a clear home/road split (6.16 ERA vs.2.62 ERA) that’s easy to take advantage of, Maddux should be owned in far more leagues. He didn’t look good in his Dodger debut, but that was in Philly. Next week he’ll get two home starts against SD and ARZ and while he’s not pitching in PETCO anymore, Dodger Stadium ain’t too shabby either. Both starts come against weak and inexperienced lineups that include a number of free swingers. They should both be good matchups for Maddux and as a result I like him as one of the better 2 start options out there next week and he’s readily available in 70% of leagues.
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