First Pitch – August 13th – Value Picks:
We’re back to the usual schedule and the usual format this week for our Value Picks column. It will be a bit of an abridged version since I’m travelling in the Pellston, Michigan airport today, so we’ll just shorten up the opening and get right down to the analysis. As usual we’ll focus the goal is to find players that are owned in less than 10% of leagues, so that they can hopefully be available for those of our subscribers competing in deeper formats, but valuable enough to contribute in all league formats. We’ll try to highlight a player at each position and some of the names will be names we’ve discussed in the past that I still feel strongly about. Let’s get to it!
Catcher: Mike Napoli
Napoli’s just over the 10% barrier, owned in about 10.8% of ESPN.com leagues, but he’s back from injury and likely off the radar of many fantasy owners. A combination of injury, the emergence of Jeff Mathis, and some horrid luck (.183 BHIP%) depressed Napoli’s value earlier in the season, but he made his presence felt with his return this weekend 4-5 with a HR, 2B, 3 Runs, and 2 BB’s in 2 games against the Yankees. We’ve discussed Napoli a bit in the past. He’s got excellent plate patience and offers a nice combination of power and speed. He doesn’t help batting average but because of his high BB Rates and low AB numbers, the impact his batting average has on rotisserie players isn’t as bad as it looks. He’s also a guy that gets a lot of production despite limited playing time, having already cracked out 13 HRs, 20 Runs, 30 RBI’s, and 4 SB’s in just 49 games. When healthy and playing often he offers #1 catcher potential. His return has gone unnoticed a bit and he makes for a nice acquisition on the waiver wire.
First Base: Billy Butler
We’ve touched on how difficult the 1B position is to fill at times in this space because nearly everyone is owned if they can produce reasonably good numbers (thanks to UTIL and CI positions), with that said Billy Butler’s emergence has gone wildly unnoticed by fantasy owners. He’s owned in just under 20% of ESPN leagues despite hitting .378 in July after cranking out 5 HR’s in June. Butler’s made big improvements in his EYE this year as he’s made strides in cutting down his K Rate and increasing his BB Rate as a 2nd year player. The one area he still needs to make improvements is hitting the ball in the air more (49% GB Rate), but his extra base hit rate climbed in June to over 11.6% showing some of the potential still available in this big bat. This is a guy who posted a .336/.416/.561 career minor league line with a .76 EYE. The EYE has come around to replicate the minor league numbers and the power is on the rise as well.
Second Base: Ian Stewart
We’re cheating a bit with Stewart who is eligible in 10 game requirement leagues but not eligible in 20 game leagues and he’s owned in just under 25% of leagues. Regardless Stewart needs to be highlighted. With Todd Helton’s recovery coming slowly, Stewart has become the everyday 3B in Colorado and is flashing the big power potential we saw in the minors. He’s hitting .288/.392/.520 as he’s shown vastly improved plate patience, walking in more than 15% of his PA’s since being recalled. He’s got an unusual reverse split going right now where he’s murdering LH pitchers in a small sample (.455/.538/.773), so he’ll continue to get everyday AB’s. He’s posting nearly identical numbers at home vs. on the road (.907 vs. .916 OPS) which is always a concern for Rockies’ hitters. While he’s prone to some extended slumps because of his high K Rates, the combination of power and plate patience should keep him in the lineup the rest of the way. As a 2B/3B eligible player in most leagues, Stewart needs to be owned in a lot more than 25% of leagues.
Shortstop: Jed Lowrie
I’m going to continue to pound away on the Jed Lowrie bandwagon. Lowrie’s owned in just 12% of ESPN leagues, despite driving in 17 runs in the last month while hitting .279. He’s shown impressive power racking up 12 extra base hits in just 114 AB’s (and 6 in his last 36 AB’s) and a refined and improving EYE. His .55 EYE is about average for most players, but for a young SS playing in his first major league season it’s impressive. Add in the fact that he’s produced a .69 EYE since being recalled and inserted as a starting SS and a .80 EYE in July, and it looks like we have an improving young player on our hands. Lowrie produced a .85 EYE in the minors along with a .287/.381/.446 line. He’s in the mold of a Michael Young type SS who should provide good offensive production. Hitting in a pretty good lineup and great home park in Boston, Lowrie should provide plenty of value down the stretch and is someone I’d rather own than say an Edgar Renteria, who is owned in more than double the amount of leagues Lowrie is owned in.
Third Base: Chase Headley
Shhhhhh! The breakout is coming! Very quietly Headley has been heating up, hitting .323/.447/.581 in August. More importantly are the improvements in the EYE and BB Rates that are getting my attention. After starting out with a miserable 0:27 BB:K Ratio in his first 87 AB’s, Headley has posted a much more respectable 13:23 BB:K Ratio in his last 83 AB’s. Sure he’s striking out too much, but the BB Rate is getting back in line with where he was as a minor league prospect. I’ve deemed him Evan Longoria-lite in the past and I still feel that way as an offensive prospect. He just happens to play in a stadium that significantly deflates his power totals. The improved BB Rates and EXBH Rates suggest Headley is starting to come into his own as a major league player.
Outfielder: Daniel Muprhy
Murphy’s been a fast-rising prospect in the Mets system that has hit at every level, despite being moved aggressively. So far in limited action with the Mets he’s posting ridiculous numbers (.478/.586/.783) along with a great 1.25 EYE and 4 extra base hits in 23 AB’s. Obviously, he’s not THIS good, but the guy hit .308/.374/.496 with a .85 EYE and 40 extra base hits in 350 AB’s. He’s in a really good lineup to offer strong Run and RBI production and he has the benefit of the league not getting a lot of time to learn how to pitch him. I like Murphy for solid production down the final 6 weeks, certainly much more than his 3.8% ownership in ESPN leagues would suggest.
Starting Pitcher: Max Scherzer
As I wrote on Monday morning: “It’s time to start paying attention to Max Scherzer again. Scherzer’s returned from a brief stint on the minor league DL with shoulder issues and is being stretched out with the anticipation of being used as a starter. With Doug Davis scuffling of late and a lesser threat in Yusmero Petit entrenched in the rotation and the Diamondbacks in a pennant race, it looks as if Scherzer is being groomed to make an impact this season. In his last two starts in which he’s gone 3 and 4 innings respectively, he’s struck out 13 batters while walking 3 and allowing just 3 hits. His last start was on August 5th and with him not pitching tonight I’d imagine he goes tomorrow night for Tuscon, that would also not so coincidentally line up his pitching spot with Yusmero Petit’s turn in the rotation. I think we’ll see Scherzer in the bigs within 2 weeks and if you’re in position where you can afford to store the youngster, take your chance to beat the competition early. Scherzer posted a 2.90 ERA and racked up 33 K’s in 31 innings earlier this year in the majors and could make a big impact down the stretch.” This is just a follow up because Scherzer allowed just 5 base-runners in 5 AAA innings on Tuesday night while striking out 7 more batters and walking just 1. He’s up to 74 pitches now and will likely make one more minor league start to get to 90 before returning to the DBacks rotation. He’s lineup to take Yusmero Petit’s spot in the rotation but with Doug Davis struggling as well there are two potential spots for Scherzer. I stand by my comment on Monday that within 2 weeks he’s in the rotation and back producing. Remember he struck out more than a batter/inning earlier in the season while posting a 2.90 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Get ahead of the curve now and add him before the call-up.
There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning. Members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here. Not a member? Join today.
