Jeremy Sowers – In 2006, Sowers had a brilliant rookie season, pitching in 88.3 innings as a starter with an ERA of 3.57 and WHIP of 1.189. The Indians then expected him to be a critical part of the rotation last season, but Sowers struggled mightily (6.42 ERA) and has not fared much better this season (5.86 ERA). So, what exactly happened? Well, for one thing, Sowers does not strike out enough people to be consistent. His careers K/9 are quite low: 3.96. This season, Sowers has worked to improve that number posting a K/9 rate of 5.26. However, increased walks this season as well has left Sowers with a K/BB ratio of 1.62 that, despite his improved strikeout numbers, is not much better than his career mark of 1.52. To be a good starter, that ratio, at the least, has to be 2 or better. So, that helps to explain Sowers’ poor ERA and WHIP but does not explain why he was good in ’06. His BABIP and LOB%, however, do. Over his career Sowers has a BABIP of .291 and LOB% of 67.6% (that number may seem unluckily low but is actually not unlucky due to Sowers’ poor K rate), but in 2006 Sowers managed to get lucky and nothing more. His BABIP was .259, and his LOB% was 76.3%. Still, there is hope for Sowers. He has pitched well lately and increased his K rate, which is why Joe gave him an endorsement the other day and looks pretty good doing so as Sowers had a WHIP under 1 while striking out 4 and walking none last night.
BJ Upton – To reiterate Joe’s point from a few days ago that Upton should see a power surge the rest of the season, let’s take a look at his FB% and HR/FB% numbers. We notice a few things right off of the bat. First of all, regardless of his HR/FB% rate, Upton is hitting less homers because he is giving himself less opportunities to do so. Last season, Upton hit the ball in the air 37.6% of the time, and that number has dropped to 30% this season. Now, to the HR/FB% ratio! We see that Upton’s HR/FB% this season is practically a third of what it was last year (19.8% in ’07 and 7% in ’08). Upton does not have much of a track record, so it is hard to tell which number represents Upton’s true skill set, but we can take an educated guess and say that Upton’s true skill set lies somewhere between those numbers, possibly best represented by his career average of 12.6%. Still, that number is almost double Upton’s current HR/FB%, meaning that Upton is definitely getting unlucky this season in that department. As Upton’s HR/FB% rises to meet his career average, we will most likely see a bunch of homeruns from him like Joe predicted.
Carl Crawford – I was trying to figure out Crawford’s struggles the other day, and it was very difficult to find anything that indicates why his performance has dropped off this season. In fact it is eerie how close his distribution of balls in play (GB, LD, and FB) this season resembles those of last season. His HR/FB% is also identical to last season’s mark. I did come across one minor thing, though, that is certainly having an effect on Crawford’s low singles average and in turn his stolen base totals and that is his IFH%. Over his career, Crawford has an IFH% of 9.2%. Last season it was 8%, but this season it has dropped to a career low of 3.4%. On the year, Crawford only has 6 infield hits (a pretty low number for someone who averaged slightly more than 23 in his first 6 seasons). If Crawford was on pace for 23 again this season, he would have around 16 right now, which would put his batting average at .295 and also give him ten more opportunities to steal second. It is interesting to play this hypothetical game, but there is some practical application. It is unlikely that all of a sudden Crawford can’t get infield hits meaning he should get his fair share the rest of the way, and by playing our hypothetical game we see the impact that those infield hits have on Crawford’s batting average.
CJ Wilson – I have to start worrying about Wilson’s job security. He has blown saves in 3 of his last 5 appearances and has an ERA over 5. Last year, Wilson got lucky with his HR/FB%, and it allowed him to give up a HR just .53 times over the course of 9 innings. This season, Wilson’s HR/FB% is more in line with his career average, and as a result he is giving up 1.37 HR/9. Also, Wilson’s BABIP last season was .262, but this season hat number sits at .314, which is much closer to his career average of .303. These numbers show that Wilson’s solid ’07 campaign was largely predicated on luck, and he does not have the talent to be a closer.
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