Daisuke Matsuzaka – Dice-K might have a sub 3 ERA this season, but he has not pitched as well as one might think. He has a pretty atrocious walk rate, allowing 5.29 batters to reach 1st base via a free pass every 9 innings. The result is a 1.50 K/BB ratio that leaves much to be desired. The real reason Dice-K has been effective this season is that he has gotten lucky, with a .270 BABIP and 81% LOB%. Being a member of the Red Sox has been a blessing for Dice-K as well, seeing as how he has 16 wins despite posting only 11 quality starts. However, I do have to admit that Dice-K has been much better his past 2 outings, striking out a combined 15 hitters while only walking 3.
Joe Mauer – Mauer was 5 – 6 with 4 RBI’s and a run scored in Minnesota’s rout of Oakland last night. Mauer is having his second best professional season, hitting .317/.411/.441. He has just 8 HR and 1 SB however, and it certainly appears that he will never develop into the 20/20 candidate many dreamed he could become. He has stopped running, in my opinion, in an attempt to prevent himself from wearing down over the course of the entire season, keeping Mauer from even being a 10/10 guy. As for his low HR total, Mauer simply does not give himself enough chances to hit HR. His HR/FB% is a pretty normal (career 9.2%), but his career GB/FB ratio is not (1.86). The good news is that Mauer is absolutely a legitimate .300 hitter, probably even .315 hitter. There are a few things about Mauer’s makeup that suggest this. First of all, his career EYE is 1.24, including a mind boggling 1.74 EYE this season. Combine that with a 90% contact rate and 22.5% LD% (both ’08 totals), and you certainly have a .300+ hitter.
Kevin Slowey – Slowey turned in a dominating performance last night. He struck out 10 batters compared to walking just one, as he allowed 2 ER over 6 IP. Slowey improved to 11 – 8 on the season. Don’t expect any more double digit outings from Slowey (career K/9 are 6.62), but you can expect him to be solid on most nights because of his control. Slowey has a miniscule walk rate of 1.20 batters per 9 innings, which has allowed him to possess the best K/BB ratio in the entire league of 5.89 (and that’s not taking into account last night’s performance). The next three guys, after Slowey, in K/BB ratio are Dan Haren, Cliff lee, and Roy Halladay. Not bad company eh?
AJ Burnett – Every time out for AJ Burnett and you can hear the lovely sound of cash registers. Burnett will likely opt out of his contract at season’s end and test the free agent market. He is posting his most productive and most healthy season of his career. He dropped to 16 – 10 (Burnett has been a decisions monster, posting only 4 no decisions in 29 games started) despite allowing only 2 runs in a complete game effort. You might think Burnett has not been that good this season (4.58 ERA, 1.410 WHIP), but he has been a bit unlucky. He has a .334 BABIP and 69.7% LOB%. Those numbers are especially unlucky when you factor in the fact that Burnett strikes out more than a batter an inning and his career numbers in terms of BABIP and LOB% are .292 and 71.3% respectively. I would expect Burnett to finish off strong. He has the motivation($$$), has the high quality stuff to pitch well versus any team (as demonstrated last night versus the Yankees), and should be luckier as his BABIP should normalize somewhat.
Ervin Santana – Santana continued his impressive bounce back season last night, by shutting down the Rangers. Santana struck out 7 and walked 1 over 8 innings of 1 run ball. Santana has improved in a number of ways from last season. First of all, his GB/FB ratio has raised from .78 to .90, and as a result, Santana is giving up .92 HR/9, a considerable drop off from last season’s 1.56 HR/9. Also, Santana has raised his K/9 by over 1 and lowered his BB/9 by over 1, allowing him to almost double his K/BB ratio, which is now a very good 4.19.
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