Esteban German:
With Mark Grudzielanek going on the 15 day DL, German gets a boost in value as he slides over into the everyday 2B role. I’ve always liked German and thought he deserved more of a shot at the everyday role than he’s been given. This year he’s struggled mightily but throughout his career he’s shown the ability to draw a walk, posting an 11.9% BB Rate and a .64 EYE, and decent speed (330 minor league SB’s in 8 minor league seasons). This year he’s been a different player, striking out more frequently and walking less, but at 30 there shouldn’t be a major regression in skill so I’m going to chalk it up to a bit of a sample size issue (just 110 AB’s). German responded well to the new starting role on Saturday going 3-5 with a 2B, 3B, and 3 RBI’s. German’s only really an option in AL Only formats or deep leagues looking for some short-term help as Grudzielanek’s injury is just a sprained ankle which should keep him out the minimum, but I do like German and think he makes for an interesting add in AL Only formats.
Dana Eveland:
Pitching in Fenway just isn’t quite the same as pitching in Oakland’s Coliseum and Dana Eveland found that out the hard way last night. Eveland posted his 2nd consecutive disaster start, this time allowing 9 ER’s in just 2 innings. This is what we call a bit of a regression to the mean as Eveland’s .74 Strand Rate wreaked of some “good fortune” to this point in the season. Last night he allowed 10 base-runners and 9 of them crossed the plate, which will quickly correct the Strand Rate. A number of our analysts have been on the “sell high” Eveland bandwagon, citing the deteriorating peripherals and the command issues and it looks like that was the right call. Eveland’s now walked as many as he’s struck out in his last 12 outings and isn’t lasting as long in games. It appears he may be running out of gas as he’s never topped 141 innings in a season at any point in his professional career. Also of note is Eveland’s massive home/road disparity which suggests Eveland needs to be avoided at all costs on the road where he’s posting a 5.81 ERA.
Jacoby Ellsbury:
Ellsbury’s 2-month plus cold streak continued on Saturday night as he went 0-1 in a PH appearance late in the game. He’s been dropped down in the order and now he’s starting to lose playing time to Coco Crisp as his batting average has come all the way down from a high point of .308 to .258. Add in the fact that he hasn’t stolen a base in over a month and scored just 8 times in that span and Ellsbury isn’t mixed league worthy right now. I was harsh on Ellsbury heading into the season as I wasn’t sold on the power and the batting average and thought he’d be just a 2 category player at best. Early in the season it looked pretty foolish but scouting reports have gotten around and Ellsbury’s been exposed. Ellsbury isn’t quite *this* bad as his .254 BHIP% is low for a player with his GB Rates and his speed, but he’s really not much more than a .280 hitter with little power and a lot of speed. He’s basically a Willy Taveras type with more hype. For now his only asset is speed and teams in shallow formats not needing the SB potential can feel free to drop him.
Jon Lester:
This must be the version of Jon Lester everyone used to rave about when they talked about him being the better prospect between he and Jon Papelbon. Lester continued the breakout 2008 season last night with another quality outing against the A’s. Lester went 7 innings and allowed just 2 ER’s on 7 hits and 1 BB, while striking out 5. Lester’s K Rate has come down a tad this year but he’s more than made up for it with greatly improved command and a huge jump in his GB Rate. The improvements in control have been impressive and have even gotten better of late. Including last night’s outing, Lester has walked just 10 batters in his last 70 1/3 innings for a .14 BB Rate. That’s ELITE territory with the command and a startling improvement from a .49 BB Rate in ’07 and .53 BB Rate in ’08. Lester’s quietly becoming an ace.
Chris Davis:
We probably haven’t talked about Davis enough given his hot start, 10 HR’s/20 extra base hits in his first 115 AB’s. The power, 17.3% extra base hit rate, has been incredible for Davis and while it’s a bit high, his minor league career rate of 14.6% shows that the power is very much real. Similarly while you’d think a guy striking out in 27-30% of his AB’s wouldn’t be able to sustain a .290’s batting average, Davis’ batting average actually looks pretty sustainable as well (.208 BHIP%, .312 BABIP). The HR Rate and thus the extra base hit rate will come down a bit as Davis’ HR/FB of over 28% suggests some pretty good luck, but the rest of the profile looks pretty good for the young power hitter who posted a .952 OPS in 4 minor league seasons.
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