First Pitch – July 30th – Value Picks:
Welcome to another edition of Value Picks! This week we’ll get back to the usual bag of tricks, scoping the waiver wire for golden nuggets that can help your team make a push to fantasy glory in the final two months of the season. As usual the goal is to find players that are owned in less than 10% of leagues, so that they can hopefully be available for those of our subscribers competing in deeper formats, but valuable enough to contribute in all league formats. We’ll try to highlight a player at each position and some of the names will be names we’ve discussed in the past that I still feel strongly about. Let’s get to it!
Catcher: Gerald Laird
It appears all the preaching I’ve been doing about Chris Iannetta over the last two months has finally gotten your attention as Iannetta is now owned in 43% of ESPN leagues (which is still far too low), so I’ll have to focus on someone else! How about Gerald Laird? Laird’s coming back from injury and has some threats to his playing time with Jarrod Saltalamacchia finally starting to hit a bit in Texas, but Laird remains the subject of trade talks and even if he does stay in Texas it’s going to be hard to keep his .310+ batting average out of the lineup. Laird’s gotten the starts behind home plate since being activated and he’s hitting so any concerns over the strained hamstring should be put to bed. He’s in a tremendous hitters park (for now at least) and in a terrific lineup and has been the 14th best Catcher in Roto formats to this point in the season despite the recent time missed due to injury. All of this in his favor and he’s somehow only owned in 1.5% of ESPN leagues? This has to be due to the relatively quiet return from injury, so hit the waiver wire now and see if you can get a potential Top 10 catcher for free.
First Base: Bryan Lahair
First Base is always a tough position to find that under 10% ownership requirement we strive for as nearly every player that plays 1B is owned and if they’re not well… they really aren’t fantasy worthy, but we’re going to dig deep this week and take a look at Bryan Lahair. Lahair’s been getting some time at DH since the Mariners parted ways with Richie Sexson and should be 1B eligible in most leagues thanks to his minor league position. He’s displayed pretty decent power at the minor league level with a 10.5% extra base hit rate and was hitting even better than that at AAA this year with an impressive 12.4% rate that included 12 HR’s and 26 2B’s in 313 AB’s. As with most power hitters, his big weakness is the K Rate which was over 27% at the minor league level and he’s already over 30% at the major league level. The high K Rates will likely limit his ability to contribute in the batting average category, but the power should be pretty solid. For those in deep leagues looking for 1B help he’s worth an immediate add as the power should be league average at 1B the rest of the way. The good power also provides some nice upside as sometimes youngsters with good power can make a big impact before scouting reports get around. Long-term Lahair isn’t much of a prospect but for the rest of the season he’s got good enough power that he deserves consideration in deeper formats. Of course as I write this Lahair just went deep…
Second Base: Willie Harris
Okay, so I’m cheating a little bit here since Harris is actually owned in about 17% of ESPN leagues, but I really like him considerably more than Edgar Gonzalez who is another good value pick (with less upside thanks to the lack of power/speed Harris offers). For those unaware of the Nationals roster moves for the last month or so Willie Harris has been batting leadoff and playing the OF for the Nationals. For your purposes though he likely qualifies at 2B so we’re going to put him there, where the value is higher. Harris has taken to the role hitting .306/.378/.486 and posting a 1.29 EYE in July. On top of that Harris hasn’t been afraid to run, attempting 4 SB’s in July after 5 in half the playing time in June. He’s got good speed and developing power (already destroying his career high with 7 HR’s) which was evident last year when he racked up 20 2B’s and 30 extra base hits in 344 AB’s with the Braves. He’s basically a poor man’s Fred Lewis and subscribers know how much I love Fred Lewis. Harris has some batting average risk associated with him, so if batting average is the focal point Edgar Gonzalez would be a more appropriate target, but Harris has a nice power/speed combination and a developing approach at the plate that could limit the batting average downside.
Shortstop: Jed Lowrie
With Julio Lugo on the DL, the Red Sox are giving Jed Lowrie a chance to grab hold of the everyday SS job. Lowrie’s a pretty underrated prospect, posting a career minor league line of .287/.381/.446 while capable of playing SS. Last year he posted an .896 OPS across AA and AAA and has shown an advanced approach at the minor league level with a .86 EYE across 4 minor league seasons. He’s shown the ability to walk at the big league level and shown decent power. He hits in a great home park with a tremendous supporting cast and has shown the ability to hit at an elite level for his position in the minor leagues. Julio Lugo when healthy has been horrible this year and Alex Cora isn’t much competition either if Lowrie can hit like he’s shown in the majors. Lowrie’s only owned in 0.4% of ESPN leagues and he’s a guy with the valuable combination of good skill, good situation, and good opportunity. He’s got a lot of upside to him the rest of the way and is someone in deep formats that deserves an immediate look.
Third Base: Ian Stewart
I’m taking a break from Chad Tracy this week, but know this: he’s playing almost every day and he’s hitting .300 with 6 HR’s and an .822 OPS in 150 AB’s, over a full season we’re talking a pace of .300-75-25-100, so why on earth is he only owned in 5% of leagues? I’ll leave that for you to think about. With that let’s try someone else since you people clearly aren’t listening to me about Tracy, how about Ian Stewart? You like him? I bet you do because he’s young and he’s a former top prospect AND he plays in Colorado. As a result Stewart’s ownership % has jumped a bit as he’s up to a whopping 11% after a couple multi-hit games last week. Stewart’s Slugging .532 in just under 100 AB’s this year and he’s posting a ridiculous 1.115 OPS in 39 July AB’s. As long as Todd Helton is down and the Rockies can shift Garrett Atkins over to 1B, Stewart is going to get some time and as long as he’s getting some AB’s, he’s going to hit for power. Stewart Slugged .524 for his minor league career and never posted an OPS at any level below .800. The guy can flat out rake, he’s just been blocked a bit by Garrett Atkins. He’s had some incredible good fortune as evidenced by a .442 BABIP but he’s also making some improvements in his approach. After posting an anemic .11 EYE and striking out in 55% of his June AB’s, Stewart has improved the EYE to .44 and cut the strikeouts in half to a still high 27%. While the improvement is modest it shows he’s becoming more comfortable with major league pitching. Even despite the high K Rates early in the call-up, he’s shown tremendous power since setting foot in the big leagues and should continue to do so as long as he gets playing time. With the Rockies facing a 7 game home-stand next week, now is a perfect time to add the young Rockie 3B.
Outfielder: Fernando Tatis
Tatis may also be eligible at 3B and I covered him in a player blurb earlier this week, but I wanted to mention him because he’s owned in just 20% of ESPN leagues, despite hitting for good power in a loaded offensive lineup. I touched on Tatis earlier this week and here’s what I wrote: “It’s about time we start taking a deeper look at Tatis, whose 3-4 effort with his 7th HR of the season brought his 2008 line to .318/.370/.520 in just under 150 AB’s. Comparing Tatis to his own major league past is a bit difficult since he really hasn’t played consistently since 2002, so we’ll take a look at the minor league numbers the last few years for comparison’s sake to check out if this hot start is sustainable. Over the last 3 years at the minor league level, Tatis posted a .63 EYE, a 10.5% extra base hit rate, and a .248 BHIP%. So far in 2008 at the major league level Tatis has posted a .52 EYE, a 10.8% extra base hit rate, and a .316 BHIP%. The obvious discrepancy comes in the BHIP%, which suggests Tatis will eventually see some serious regression in his AVG, but the rest of the numbers actually look pretty legitimate. Tatis’ high extra base hit rate at both levels shows legitimate power and while his 21.7% HR/FB Rate at the major league level suggests the HR production has been a tad fluky, much of those HR’s will likely just turn into 2B’s. Tatis looks like a legitimate .280 hitter with 15-20 HR potential over a full season, which means he probably still has another 5-7 HR’s in his bat the rest of the way along with some decent RBI production hitting in the back-end of the Mets order.” He deserves some attention in all formats while he’s hot as the Mets lineup will afford him plenty of RBI opportunities.
Outfielder: Adam Jones
This another one where we’re lowering the standards here to focus on a young potential star who looks like they’re emerging, but absolutely no one is paying attention to. In June the young OF hit .323/.349/.455 with 13 Runs, 12 RBI’s, 2 HR’s, and 3 SB’s. In July the young OF has hit .292/.343/.469 with 19 Runs, 19 RBI’s, 3 HR’s, and 1 SB. The young OF is Adam Jones. Sure his approach still leaves A LOT to be desired as he’s posted just a .19 EYE over the last 2 months and struck out in 22% of his AB’s, but Jones is hitting at the top of a very underrated lineup in Baltimore and he’s producing tons of Runs and RBI’s along with a solid power/speed combination. He’s reduced his K Rate in each of the first 4 months of the season and shown an ability to hit for average at the minor league level despite high K Rates. Jones is owned in just 23% of ESPN leagues but has been producing like a Top 30 OF for two months now and deserves your attention.
Starting Pitcher: Paul Maholm
We’ll double up on the Starting Pitcher position this week as well since I just noted Maholm in player blurbs earlier this week, but Maholm’s owned in just 10% of ESPN leagues despite being a Top 10 fantasy pitcher over the last month. Maholm’s been consistent and made legitimate improvements in his K and BB Rates as well as his consistency. Here’s what I wrote earlier in the week: “There is something exciting going on with Paul Maholm right now as Sunday’s gem gives him 7 quality starts in his last 8 outings, with the only non-quality start coming in Colorado where he allowed 5 ER’s in 6 innings while sporting a 7:0 K:BB ratio. Along with the string of quality starts, Maholm is showing improvements in his K and BB Rates, having struck out .84 batters/inning in July and walking just .16 batters/inning. Maholm’s name came up on a sleepers screen I ran earlier in the season in a First Pitch article when examining GB Rates and sure enough it looks like we’re seeing a bit of a breakout season from him. The consistency in his command and his K Rates over the last month suggest Maholm is making the jump into reliable starter from a matchups option in traditional formats.”
Starting Pitcher: Sean Gallagher
I’ve touched on my affinity for Sean Gallagher before but with two starts coming up next week he deserves some mentioning. Admittedly the 2nd start in DET doesn’t look too appetizing, but Gallagher should have a good start in TOR to start the week and against a contact happy Tigers offense he may be able to have some success pitching in a big park as well. Gallagher’s really going to be something though when he gets a couple home starts in a row. In Wrigley, Gallagher’s ceiling was a bit limited as an extreme fly ball pitcher, but in Oakland’s massive Coliseum he can be something special, especially in front of the great Oakland defense which we touched on last week in a First Pitch article. Gallagher’s shown the great K Rate since moving over to the AL, striking out more than a batter/inning, but he’s struggling mightily with his command. Command certainly wasn’t a strong suit for Gallagher at the minor league level but he did post a reasonable .39 BB Rate in 480+ minor league innings, so his current .69 BB Rate seems way too high. Once he settles in and finds the zone, Gallagher’s strong K Rate and Fly Ball tendencies should play extremely well in Oakland where the defense depresses their staff’s BABIP by a little over 7%. Gallagher’s only owned in 3.5% of leagues which is way too few for a young pitcher striking out over a batter/inning since coming to the AL.
