David Bush – Was bush dominating or what yesterday? He allowed just one unearned run off of 3 hits, and most impressively, he struck out 13 while walking none. 5 of Bush’s last 6 starts have been quality starts, and his K rate over that time is .72, better than his career mark of .67. Don’t expect any more double digit strikeout games out of Bush, but his increased K rate is definitely encouraging. However, now might be the time to sell high on Bush. A couple of weeks ago Drew noted he was still skeptical about Bush despite a recent run of success, and I am as well. Even with his current hot streak, but before taking into consideration yesterday’s numbers, Bush had a K/9 of 4.83 (career low). On top of that his BB/9 of 2.37 are a career high. When a pitcher whose lifetime ERA and WHIP are not that good to begin with (4.51 and 1.250 respectively) starts posting a career low in K/9 and career high in BB/9, it should spell impending doom. Luckily for Bush, he is currently benefiting from a BABIP of .260. This is low, in particular because Bush’s career BABIP is .294, and his previous season low was still .283. Bush will not keep striking out batters like we saw him do yesterday, and that, combined with an imminent rise in his BABIP, likely spells trouble for Bush over the course of the rest of the season.
Brad Hawpe – Hawpe lowered his average to .242 with a horrid 0 – 3, 3 strikeout performance, and this could be a good time to trade for Hawpe on the cheap. He is currently posting the best EYE of his career (.70) thanks to an increase in his walk rate (up to 15.6%). Bad luck is keeping him down thought. After posting consistent singles averages the past three seasons (.272/.271/.268), Hawpe’s singles average is just .227 this season. So, when that rises, we should see a hefty increase in his batting average along with some more runs scored and RBI’s.
Ryan Howard – Howard blasted his 26th and 27th homers of the season yesterday, giving him sole possession of the major league lead. The only question now is when is that average going to straighten out? Howard, despite his impressive power, is hitting just .231. Howard’s current singles average is .218, much lower than what it was the past 2 seasons (.309 and .268 respectively). Normally this would cause me to predict some big batting average upside, but not in the case of Howard. Why not? Howard has always struck out a bunch, but this year he has taken that to new levels, walking back to the dugout without putting the ball into play 32.1% of the time (a career high). So, while his EYE was at least adequate (.59 and .54) the past two seasons, it is a much lower .38 this season, making it dangerous to compare this season’s singles average to his previous two season’s singles averages as a means to measure his expected future performance.
Paul Maholm – Maholm had a surprisingly good start yesterday versus the New York Yankees. Maholm picked up his 6th victory of the season thanks to an 8 inning performance where he allowed only 2 runs while striking out 4 and walking 1. The outing leaves Maholm’s ERA around an entire run less than his ERA last season. I don’t expect that to continue though. Maholm’s K/BB ratio is only very slightly better than last season’s, while his GB% has dropped by 4.5%. It appears that his drop in ERA can be attributed to a BABIP and LOB% that are currently beating his career averages. Since Maholm’s K rate is in line with his career average, there is no reason to expect him to be able to continue to post BABIP and LOB% numbers better than his career averages.
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