Randy Johnson:
I’ve been among the supporters of the Big Unit this season so Sunday’s gem was a slight bit of redemption. Johnson was phenomenal on Sunday hurling 6 1/3 dominant innings against the Padres allowing just 3 base-runners, all hits, and striking out 10 while allowing just 1 ER. Despite the great start Johnson’s totals for the year sit at 5.18 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 92 K’s in 92 innings. The line looks like something off of a Daniel Cabrera baseball card as Johnson’s inconsistency has encouraged owners to jump ship. I’ve hung tough (and taken my fair share of lumps along the way) as I refuse to go against the story the peripherals tell. Johnson’s 1.00 K Rate remains elite for a SP and his 0.29 BB Rate is right in line with 2005 and 2006 when the Big Unit posted worthwhile fantasy seasons. On the poor luck side, Johnson’s 0.66 Strand Rate looks ridiculous for a pitcher with such a high K Rate and his .340 BHIP%/.350 BABIP suggest some seriously poor luck on balls in play as well. All of this suggests, to me at least, that there should be some better days ahead for Johnson. At the same time I recognize father time has caught up with Johnson a bit. Johnson’s inability to command the inside portion of the plate as well as he used to has lead to RH batters sitting on everything out over the plate and crushing Johnson to the tune of .314/.366/.519. But Johnson’s still dominating LH hitters and still posting good K Rates against RH batters as well (striking out RH’s in 25% of their ABs) that I have to believe there is a correction coming in Johnson’s favor. I still think Johnson has #2 starter upside because of the great K’s and the potential for improved ERA and WHIP (Each of the last 3 years Johnson has posted an Expected ERA in the mid-to-high 3’s). I’m still believing in the Big Unit, though admittedly the inconsistency has had me question Johnson’s worthiness.
Matt LaPorta:
The Sabathia trade will be announced this morning with the most important and fantasy worthy note from the Indians side of the equation being Top Prospect Matt LaPorta. LaPorta was a surprise selection by the Brewers at #7 in the 2007 draft because of his lack of position and the Brewers having already had their 1B solution in house with Prince Fielder. But it appears the Brewers made the right call converting LaPorta to an OF and counting on his near major league ready bat moving quickly and providing nice trade bait with a developing young nucleus. On Sunday they turned the #7 pick in the 2007 draft (along with 2 other prospects) into CC Sabathia. Quite a move for a front-office that has clearly established themselves as one of the tops in all of baseball. LaPorta was hitting .291/.404/.584 at AA for the Brewers and looks ready to step in either in LF, 1B, or DH for the Indians immediately. I’m guessing the Indians will give LaPorta another few weeks to get used to the new organization before being promoted, but upon promotion he’ll deserve quite a bit of attention. He’s a future STUD who will benefit from playing with an AL team that has a DH spot as that may be his future position. His bat appears ready now so feel free to look at him as a source of power late in the season upon call-up. When called up I think he'll hit right away and could offer production similar to that of an Evan Longoria.
Edinson Volquez:
Volquez got back on track on Sunday against the Nationals, improving his record to 11-3 and picking up another quality start. Volquez has slowed down a bit of late, posting just a 6:9 K:BB Ratio in his last 15 2/3 innings and doing so against some lesser-tier offenses (TOR, WAS, PIT). For right now we’re writing off to a mini-slump for the 1st half fantasy stud, but it’s something to keep an eye on as the season progresses. Another concern for Volquez heading into the 2nd half is that he only pitched 178 innings last year, the highest total of his career. With 110+ innings heading into the break fatigue and potential innings limits could be a factor that negatively impact Volquez’s value. If you’re a Volquez owner “selling high” for a more established veteran pitcher would be an appropriate trade-off in risk as Volquez enters into unchartered territories for his arm.
Aaron Cook:
On May 26th I suggested selling high on Aaron Cook as his ERA sat at a tidy 2.82 with a nice 1.20 WHIP along with a nice 7-3 record. Since then Cook has gone 4-3 with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. For the season it’s been a nice ride for Cook (3.66 ERA, 11-6 record) and one that has earned him a spot on the NL All Star team, but don’t be fooled, Aaron Cook is no star. He’s only spot-start worthy in most traditional formats and is really more of a play for those in deeper leagues. If you haven’t taken the sell-high advice yet, use the All Star selection as a selling point along with the 3.66 ERA.
Cody Ross:
A week ago in this spot we talked about how the opportunity had finally come but the production had yet to follow for Cody Ross. One week later and a 4 game trip to Coors Field and all that has changed instantly! Ross went 15-28 this week with 6 extra base hits and 15 RBI’s, 14 of those in the last 3 days at Coors! Ross has now hit safely in 14 of his last 15 games, no small feat for a guy with such a high K Rate, and has raised his average from .216 all the way up to .266 (as our own Thomas Massimo predicted). Ross looks settled into the everyday CF role and his strong power production makes him an appealing option in deeper formats. In traditional leagues he’s a borderline option that should be sought out in extreme hot streaks like the one he’s currently in. Ross makes for a good play in smaller ballparks as his extreme FB tendencies really play well. He’ll be prone to extended slumps as most free swingers are, but in bursts he’ll provide significant power production.
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