Gavin Floyd:
I don’t know what kind of life Gavin Floyd is living these days but based on the good fortune he’s had this year on the mound I have to imagine it’s a pretty clean one. Floyd was outstanding again on Saturday night as he shut out the A’s for 7 1/3 innings allowing just 3 hits and 3 BB’s, while striking out 6. We’ve harped on the BABIP (.217) as well as the Strand Rate (.76) as two immediate reasons to expect a regression in Floyd’s WHIP and ERA as the season progresses, but he continues to defy statistical logic with another great outing on Saturday. If you believe in the numbers something tragically bad is going to happen to Floyd at some point that’s going to infect his ERA and his WHIP and get them back in line, but if you’re a believer in “magic” this might just be Floyd’s year. While the peripherals haven’t been as good as the production for much of the year Floyd has shown significant improvements in his K Rate over the last 8 starts (.95). If that K Rate can be maintained as the season progresses, Floyd will be able to limit some of the regression we’ve expected. The improvements in the K Rate are meaningful and something that should be noted when evaluating Floyd’s potential going forward, but regardless of the improvements in Floyd’s K Rate “some” regression in his ERA and WHIP should come during the 2nd half, it just might not be “as painful” as we originally expected.
Brandon Morrow:
Morrow’s 2008 season just isn’t getting enough pub. He’s basically become the Mariners version of Carlos Marmol out of the pen (the good Marmol from the first two months not the evil Marmol that has reared his head of late) striking out 37 in 27 2/3 innings, walking just 8 and posting an absurd 0.65 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. He hasn’t allowed an Earned Run in his last 20 appearances and has only yielded 3 base-runners in his last 14 appearances. He’s been incredible and while JJ Putz continues to work his way back from injury the Mariners should have an awfully hard time removing Morrow from the closer’s role with this level of success.
Justin Morneau:
It probably seems a bit contrarian to knock a guy hitting .310/.373/.487 with 12 HR’s, 50 Runs, and 65 RBI’s, but that’s exactly what I’m going to do. While Morneau’s total value (0.69 FPI) is right in line with his projected value (0.69) this season, Morneau’s power peripherals are showing some modest deterioration. Mike mentioned the up and down power totals for Morneau over the last 4 years that have shown an overall level of decline and how it seems unusual for a player supposedly entering their power peak (age 27), but a deeper look at Morneau suggests no reason to believe the power is coming back this season. Morneau’s power has declined across the board as his extra base hit rate has dropped over the last 3 years from 12.2%, 11.0%, to just 9.6% this season. At the same time the GB Rate has steadily risen from 35.9% to 44.7% to 45.1%. This year the HR/FB Rate has even dropped down a bit to just 12.8% after sitting at 16.7% the last two years, while this would usually signal some poor luck in balls leaving the yard, the reduced 2B’s and 3B’s rates suggest it signals an overall drop in power. If you’re a Morneau owner you’re saying “Sure the power hasn’t been there but the value certainly has!” The problem is Morneau’s overall value has been largely dependent on two things: 1) a higher singles average (.290 vs. 3 year average of .222) and 2) a .354 batting average with RISP that’s keeping his RBI Rate high despite less extra base hits. Both of those numbers seem a bit unsustainable and if they start to regress Morneau’s value is going to plummet. Morneau seems like a nice sell-high candidate that most aren’t thinking of right now. If you can get your hands on someone like Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard in exchange for Morneau I’d try to make the upgrade instead of banking on a big power outburst in the 2nd half from Justin.
Francisco Liriano:
Liriano was magnificent for the 2nd consecutive outing last night in AAA. He threw 6 shutout innings allowing just 4 base-runners (3 hits, 1 BB) while striking out 7. Over the last 2 outings he’s allowed just 9 base-runners in 13 innings while striking out 16. It appears he’s ready to get back into the rotation for the Twins and I’d expect that promotion to happen shortly after the All Star Break. Liriano’s certainly worth stashing in all formats but I caution owners’ expectations from the young LH. First and foremost this is not the Liriano of 2006. Francisco has worked hard at throwing from a different arm angle as to limit the stress placed on his elbow. The new delivery is coming more over the top and while Liriano finally appears to be having success commanding the new delivery, I don’t think he’ll be able to attain the same level of dominance with the less deceptive new motion. A look at his AAA numbers in ’08 compared to ’05 further illustrate some of these differences: K Rate of 1.23 in ‘05 vs. .85 in ’08, HR/9 of .40 in ’05 vs. 0.75 in ’08, and H/9 of 5.54 in ’05 vs. 8.46 in ’08. Will Liriano be worth owning in the 2nd half and will he make legitimate contributions to fantasy owners? YES, but will he be the dominant Ace we’re used to associating with the name “Liriano”, I don’t think so. If I only had one roster spot to hold a Buchholz or Liriano, Clay would be my guy. Liriano’s going to be solid in the 2nd half, but expectations of his return need to be tempered as he’s a different pitcher than the guy we saw dominate in ’06.
Clay Buchholz:
Was Saturday a missed opportunity for Clay Buchholz? Only time will tell, but with rumors swirling of Buchholz possibly being called up to replace Justin Masterson’s spot in the rotation, Masterson pitched decently while Buchholz had his worst start at AAA in over a month. Clay allowed 8 base-runners in his 5 innings of work and 5 of them found their way across home plate. He still showed the same good K Rate, striking out 5 in his 5 innings of work. Personally, I don’t think this will impact the Red Sox decision making very much with regards to Buchholz’s path and I think he remains the highest ceiling starter likely sitting in your FA pool. As we’ve discussed before Buchholz’s early season struggles were plagued by quite a bit of bad luck (.365 BHIP%, 0.65 Strand Rate) and his K Rate (1.02) was phenomenal. He’s got a similar potential impact as Joba Chamberlain but the Red Sox rotation depth has limited his opportunity. Rumors this week that Buchholz may be called up to start Saturday’s game against the Yankees only fueled my belief that the Red Sox have the intention of getting Buchholz into the rotation during the 2nd half. I’ve stashed him in every league I’m playing in just waiting for the eventual call, and I’d suggest you do the same. I still don’t think we’re too long away from seeing Buchholz in the rotation, even despite last night’s struggles in AAA.
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