First Pitch – June 4th – Value Picks:
We’re back with another edition of Wednesday’s Value Picks! As we’ve mentioned before, every Wednesday we’ll go digging for diamonds in the rough that is the Free Agent Pool. The last few weeks we’ve been trying to pick up the scrap heaps of the Free Agent Pool by focusing on players that are owned in less than 10% of leagues. The goal is to find players that can contribute in all formats but should be available in nearly all leagues. We’ll highlight one player at each position and provide commentary on how they can help your fantasy team. Later in the year we’ll focus on players that have seen their value take a hit because of under-performance, but for now reference Anthony Perri’s brilliant work on under-performing hitters and pitchers to help guide you in identifying potential trade targets as well as players on your own team you should consider moving.
With the rules outlined clearly let’s start digging through the waiver wire for some gems!
Catcher: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Salty might not seem like a “Value Pick” with the big name and all the hype that surrounded him last year putting him in the forefront of fantasy owners’ minds but he’s owned in just 3% of ESPN leagues right now. Maybe it’s some of the residual effect of Salty disappointing owners last year after the trade to Texas but the youngster seems to be making genuine improvements in his 2nd full season at the major league level. Salty’s plate patience is the most noticeable improvement as his EYE currently sits at .70 thanks to already drawing 14 BB’s in his first 65 AB’s (compared to just 9 BB’s in 167 AB’s in 2007). He’s still striking out at a high rate which will keep his batting average in the .250-.270 range, but he’s making nice improvements in his power as well, raising his extra base hit rate from 8.9% to 9.2%. Add in the fact that he hits in a pretty underrated Texas lineup and a great ballpark and you have a solid #2 catching option with the upside of a true #1. After last night’s 3-3 outing Salty’s bound to get more attention so if you’re looking for catcher help in deep leagues or even 2 catcher leagues and Salty is sitting on the waiver wire act fast.
1B: Chad Tracy
After touching on a number of under-valued 1B options over the course of the year like Jason Giambi, Lyle Overbay, and preaching about my man Conor Jackson till the cows come home, the 1B pool has become a bit thin to write about. So we’re going to talk a bit about a guy who may not yet qualify at 1B for your league in Chad Tracy. Tracy played 15 games at 1B in 2007 and has 6 games played at the position so far this season. I mentioned Tracy in a blurb this past week as a guy I think will eventually take over the 3B starting position for the Diamondbacks but in most leagues he’ll have 1B eligibility as well, so for now we’ll talk about him at this position. Tracy’s shown good power in the past, eclipsing 20 HR’s in multiple seasons, but his 2007 was derailed by a rib injury and he’s battled injuries early on in 2008 as well. He came back last week and was deemed a super utility guy for the time being as Doug Melvin gave the vote of confidence to both Conor Jackson and Mark Reynolds. While I think my man CoJack is safe at 1B, Reynolds high K Rates, extreme inconsistency, and right-handedness makes him an ideal candidate for Tracy to overtake. The DBacks lineup has a lot of right-handedness to it, especially in the power producing lineup spots, with Conor Jackson, Chris Snyder, Chris Young, Justin Upton, and Eric Byrnes (if healthy). The DBacks have used Orlando Hudson in the middle of the order to help give some LH-ness along with good OBP in front of their true power guys, but another LH bat in the middle of Jackson, Snyder, and Upton would really balance the lineup out nicely. Tracy’s struggling to hit for average initially upon his return but he’s hitting for good power (2 HR’s, 1 2B in 28 AB’s) and is making good contact (only 3 K’s). His career line of .287/.347/.469 looks similar to Reynolds .268/.343/.481 line, but Tracy offers a lot more consistency with the bat and a better option for lineup diversity. Even if Tracy doesn’t overtake Reynolds as the everyday there remains plenty of opportunity for his bat in the lineup with Justin Upton going through some growing pains and an open LF spot with Eric Byrnes health in question. Tracy’s going to get consistent AB’s, at this point I’m not certain where they’re going to come from, but I do think he’ll be quite productive in the DBacks lineup and top 20 HR’s from here on out. To me he’s similar to my last Value Picks suggestion in Lyle Overbay but with a tiny bit more upside.
2B: Alexei Ramirez
Earlier in the year I wrote a blog entry talking about decoding managers and general managers’ statements and trying to anticipate their fantasy implications, well no one and I mean NO ONE is more fun to try and decode than Ozzie Guillen. Let’s give his latest rant a try, shall we?
“Because if we don't do anything Tuesday, there are going to be a lot of lineup changes. That's all I'm going to say about the offense.”
Usually decoding Ozzie includes trying to decipher which “Bleeps” he’s decided to use in what spaces, but this time it’s relatively simple, Ozzie’s tired of looking at any White Sox player (I’m not sure I can call them hitters right now) that has a bat in their hands and he wants some new blood. One player that has fit this description of late has been Alexei Ramirez as he’s supplanted Juan Uribe as the everyday 2B. Ramirez is a Cuban defector with loads of talent that has been compared by some scouts to Alfonso Soriano. He’s raw and his approach at the plate leaves plenty to be desired, but he hits the ball with authority when he makes contact and has outstanding tools. He’s also an Ozzie Guillen type of player as he brings energy to the table and can steal bases. He’s got the chance to go 10-10 from here on out with a .270’s batting average making for a very serviceable MI option in traditional formats and a starting 2B in deeper formats, yet he’s only owned in 0.6% of ESPN leagues. He deserves to be owned in a lot more leagues than that as he has the kind of upside to go 20-20 this year.
SS: Jason Bartlett
I think I have officially exhausted the SS position in terms of looking for waiver wire gems, so we’re going to focus on a player that can offer contribution in the SB category. When the options are thin maximizing a position in which a player can make the most impact (specialty categories like Saves and SB’s) always makes for a good play, so let’s take a look at Jason Bartlett for this week’s SS on our Value Picks team. Bartlett’s .243-19-0-9 line leaves plenty to be desired offensively and is the primary reason he’s owned in just 1% of ESPN leagues, but Bartlett can offer good value in the SB department, having racked up 10 SB’s already. Bartlett stole 23 bases in 26 attempts last year and this year is playing for a team that likes to run in Tampa Bay. Hitting at the bottom of the lineup also offers him some good scoring opportunities when he does get on as he gets in front of the Rays best hitters (Crawford, Upton, Pena in the 2-3-4 slots). Run production and Steals are the only categories Bartlett will offer much help in, but he can be a serviceable MI option for those in deep leagues looking for speed.
3B: Eric Chavez
I ranted in the pre-season about the lack of depth at the 3B position this year but that was mainly for those in shallow leagues as there was a steep drop-off after the Top 5-6 options. In deeper formats there’s plenty of 3B options to choose from and still get adequate production, names we’ve touched on in the past like Hank Blalock, Troy Glaus, Blake DeWitt, and Pedro Feliz all offer their share of production as does another aging veteran who was activated this week: Eric Chavez. Chavez seems like he’s in his mid-30’s with how long he’s been around, but he’s just 30. After finally getting healthy from the back injuries that have hampered him for the better part of 3 seasons, Chavez has returned to the middle of the A’s order and should be good for 15-20 HR’s from here on out. While Chavez isn’t quite the elite 3B option he was in his mid-20’s, posting annual lines of .280-90-30-100, Chavez still has posted good power numbers despite the injury issues knocking out 37 HR’s the last two years in 227 games. He still draws walks at a pretty good rate as well so his Run and RBI production should be adequate along with the solid power totals from here on out. The one area Chavez is unlikely to help you in is batting average, as he hasn’t topped .270 since 2004 and he’s just a career .269 hitter who has settled into the .240-.260 range the last few years. If you’re struggling to find 3B production and looking for a cheap source of power, Chavez could be your man.
OF: Moises Alou
With his ownership in ESPN leagues down to just 6% and Alou scheduled to come off the DL again on Thursday, Moises makes for the OF recommendation in this week’s Value Picks. I’m going back to this well again because I don’t believe there’s another OF bat that can make as much of an impact as Alou. When healthy the guy just hits and hits and hits, posting a .900+ OPS in each of the last FOUR seasons. He’s in a good lineup that produces plenty of Run and RBI opportunities and he hits for a terrific average. Beat your opponents to the wire now and reap the benefits because Alou should not be unowned when he’s healthy in leagues deeper than 14 teams. He’s a top 100 OF for the rest of the season and when healthy I think he’s actually closer to the Top 50.
2-Start SP Option for Week 11: John Lannan
Can I use Jesse Litsch this week? Alright so after selecting Litsch as a potential two start option a few weeks back and then seeing him get scratched and not becoming a two start pitcher his ownership has risen through the roof (up into the 40% range). With formerly recommended pitchers like John Danks also unavailable because of increased ownership we’re going to go hunting in our nation’s capital this week for some spot-starting help in the form of John Lannan. Lannan gets two pretty favorable matchups next week with SF at home and SEA on the road. While SF is a little better against Lefties than they are against Righties, they’re still 18th in the league in OPS against LH pitching, while the Mariners are 27th. Lannan’s out-pitched his peripherals a bit early in the season thanks to a high strand rate, but he’s shown solid K Rates and the favorable matchups make him a nice two-start option for those that like to stream. He’s currently owned in just 3.1% of leagues.
Middle Relief Spotlight: Brandon Morrow
I’m adding this category going forward because I need another space to talk about middle relievers and because fantasy owners are always antsy about potential bullpen movement. Our own David Regan does an excellent job every Friday breaking down the bullpen situations so I’ll be looking more for current value out of the spot-light Middle Reliever than proximity to Saves, but each candidate highlighted will be someone I feel is closer than you might think to getting some save chances. This week’s candidate is Brandon Morrow, who is owned in just 1% of ESPN leagues. Morrow’s always had electric stuff but command has been an issue in the past. This year Morrow’s still struggling with BB’s issuing 7 in his first 15 innings, but he’s throwing A LOT more pitches for strikes this year. In fact he’s throwing over 67% of his pitches for strikes and his K Rate has jumped, striking out 22 in his first 15 innings. Morrow offers nice K potential while offering good ERA and decent WHIP contributions, but he’s also next in line for Saves if anything happens to JJ Putz. Putz has already gone down once this year and I’ve personally never had much confidence in his ability to stay healthy after some heavy usage in past years. He hasn’t looked right of late as he’s been throwing more and more offspeed stuff and getting away from his fastball. I’m not saying Putz is out of the closer’s role anytime soon but there are enough indicators that fantasy owners in deep leagues can speculate on the next-in-line, especially when the next-in-line is offering plenty of value outside of the closer’s role.
