Bronson Arroyo - With Lowe dealin' on the other end, Arroyo struggled against the Dodgers on Wednesday night. He gave up 6 ER and 7 hits in 6.1 IP while striking out 6. He only has 1 QS in his last four starts and is posting a 6.33 ERA during those outings. While Arroyo has had a rough season, his fantasy value breakdown is quite simple. High ERA and WHIP in exchange for K's and the occasional W. He has a 5.55 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9 for the season. His huge 1.47 HR/9 isn't helping his cause and is probably a predictable result from his GO/AO of 0.94. Pitching in Great American Ballpark doesn't help his HR/9 either, with the park ranking 2nd in the National League ballpark factors. The G.A.B. is at a 1.329 factor based on ESPN's formula of home and road HR's. The greater the number is above 1.0, the less pitcher-friendly the ballpark.
Russel Branyan - Branyan is making Brewers fans and fantasy owners forget all about Bill Hall's power production. Since being recalled from Triple-A Nashville in late May, Branyan has 9 HR in 59 AB and is hitting .305 with a .400 OBP. No doubt you probably at least recognize Branyan's name, since he has been bouncing around the league since the late 90's. He has always had power potential and even hit 20 dingers with 2001 Indians in 315 AB (HR/AB of 15.8). Branyan's problem is his strikeout rate and already has 23 K's in 59 AB. To break down his plate appearances, he has either hit a HR or struck out in 46% of his PA's. He probably doesn't warrant much fantasy consideration out of 3B unless he's swinging the bat like this.
Justin Upton - With the return of Eric Byrnes coming as soon as early next week, the D-Backs are considering optioning Justin Upton back to the minors to try to fix his swing. He was benched on Wednesday and should be back in the lineup on Thursday, but is a risky start in any league. Upton's totals include a .244 average, .783 OPS, .58 FPI, and a HR/AB of 28.1. He has 84 strikeouts in 225 AB and is average a strikeout for ever 3.1 plate appearances. Basically, if you show up at a Diamondbacks game, bet your friend that Upton will strike out at least once. Upton remains a huge talent with power potential, but he'll have to figure out some of his rookie struggles before becoming a fantasy lineup fixture.
Derek Lowe - D-Lowe is officially back. Despite his start not officially qualifying for the "QS" status, he still only gave up 1 ER in 5.1 IP on 3 hits, 2 BB, and 6 K's. He was only at 85 pitches when manager Joe Torre decided to remove Lowe prematurely. Lowe was rolling along, but a 121 pitch count in his previous outing had the Dodgers being extra careful with Lowe in this start. Nonetheless, Lowe still earned the Win and has now given up 3 ER or less in his last 6 starts. It was his first Win on the road since last August! With the wheels coming off in May when he posted a 6.22 ERA, he has since posted a 2.30 in June and seems to be back-on-track.
Ryan Doumit - The red-hot hitting Ryan Doumit will miss at least 2 games with a slight concussion. He was out of the lineup on Wednesday night and is expected to sit at least one more day (maybe two). The good news is that he will not be headed to the disabled list and should be ready to go by the weekend. When he's in the lineup, Doumit has been fantastic this season: hitting .336 with a 0.84 FPI and a HR/AB of 14.6. Of course, his BHIP of .266 compared to his average of .336 is quite the differential and, each month, he has shown similar deltas. Starting in April, he hit .348 with a BHIP of .304, .333 in May with a BHIP of .250, and .314 so far in June with a BHIP of .208. Those numbers might be indicating a bit of good luck in the first half for Doumit, but that shouldn't keep you from riding the heat-wave behind the plate in Pittsburgh. What it does show is that there could be a correction down the stretch.
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