Cole Hamels:
After two horrid outings, Hamels got back on the right track on Thursday tossing a complete game shutout against the Reds. Hamels allowed just 4 hits and 3 BB’s during the shutout, but struck out just 4. A couple starts back I noted Cole Hamels dropping K Rate was something to keep an eye on and the recent results aren’t too inspiring. Hamels has struck out just 8 in his last two starts (since mentioning the K Rate concerns) which totaled 14 2/3 innings and now has just 8 strikeouts in his last 18 2/3 innings. The K struggles come despite one of the starts coming against the Marlins who lead the majors in strikeouts and another start coming against the Reds, who despite being in the middle of the pack overall in strikeouts have some strikeout prone players like Adam Dunn, Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, and Edwin Encarnacion. While the K Rates are on there way down, the BB Rates are on the way up which is a further concern. Some good fortune in his BHIP% has masked some of the declines in his peripherals. At this point Hamels is still going to be an ace or borderline ace for fantasy teams but the drop in peripherals suggest expectations need to be tempered a bit, especially in the K department.
Homer Bailey:
Homer Bailey’s first start has to be considered a success from the Reds perspective as he limited the high powered Phillies offense to just 2 ER’s in 6 1/3 innings. But from a fantasy perspective, Bailey showed his warts during his first of 2008. He walked 4 in his 6 1/3 innings and threw just 58% of his pitches for strikes. Bailey also only struck out 1 in his 6 1/3 innings, showing the same lack of dominance he displayed last season in his initial call-up. I don’t see the improvements statistically in Bailey’s command or his dominance that give me faith in him as a fantasy asset for 2008. In very deep leagues he deserves a look with a bench spot for now in hopes of something clicking, but I’m not expecting much from Bailey this season for fantasy owners.
Todd Wellemeyer:
If there is a pitcher benefiting more from the schedule this year than Todd Wellemeyer I’d like to know who it is. Wellemeyer improved his record to 7-1 on Thursday with 6 shutout innings against the Nationals and lowered his ERA to a sparkling 2.93. While the peripherals show some real improvements, mostly tied up in a significantly lower BB Rate, the scheduling has played a big factor in Wellemeyer’s success as well. In Wellemeyer’s 13 starts he’s faced 10 different opponents: PIT (3), SF (2), COL, HOU, CIN, CHC, MIL, SD, LAD, and WSH. Of those 10 opponents, only the Cubs rank in the Top 10 in the league in OPS and just the Cubs and Dodgers rank in the Top 15 in MLB in OBP. So the question remains are Wellemeyer’s improvements in his control real or are they schedule driven? As usual the truth lies somewhere in between, but Wellemeyer’s up coming schedule pitching in Cincinnati and against Philadelphia looks like a bad fit for his extreme fly-ball tendencies. Wellemeyer looks like an ideal sell-high candidate to me and someone I’m trying to move before next week’s 2-start period because I feel like some of the regression in his peripherals will come in these next two starts.
Carlos Lee:
El Caballo is in a miserable slump as another 0-4 on Thursday made him just 5-31 over his last 8 games and just 12-68 over his last 18 games. As I mentioned in a post in late May, Lee’s plate discipline has really eroded this season and it’s a big concern for his batting average upside later in the season as it brings his base down from .300-.310 to .275-.290 which could have a big impact for his fantasy owners. The good news is while Lee has slumped of late he’s starting to cut back on the strikeouts, striking out just 4 times in his last 56 AB’s; unfortunately he’s only walked twice during that span. The EYE is moving in the right direction but it’s getting there slowly. The power numbers you paid for from Lee are still in line as is the run production (thanks largely in part to Tejada and Berkman’s great starts), but the batting average should struggle to get into the .300+ range we’ve been accustomed to.
Troy Glaus:
With Ryan Zimmerman going down, I took my own advice in quite a few leagues and added Troy Glaus as a 3B replacement for this week. So far so good as the much-anticipated power outburst seems to be here. Glaus homered in both ends of the double header on Thursday and now has 6 HR’s on the season. As we’ve mentioned in the past, Glaus’ peripherals look pretty strong as his EYE, FB Rate, and 2B’s Rate are all in really good shape. When all the peripherals line up like that you’re just waiting for the correction and the production finally looks to have followed. Glaus is moving his way up my list of favored 3B and has moved into consideration for the Top 10 overall. If you’re a Zimmerman or Figgins owner who has been searching for help at 3B, Glaus makes for an ideal replacement.
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