Aaron Harang:
For those Aaron Harang owners out there take some solace in knowing this is just as frustrating to us as it is to you. After looking like he had turned the corner in his last start against the Red Sox, Harang was awful again on Thursday against the woeful Dodgers offense. He allowed double digit hits for the 4th time in his last 7 starts and this time battled his control a bit walking 3 and striking out just 2. As we’ve mentioned repeatedly the majority of Harang’s peripherals are in line with his recent years’ production, with the exception of an elevated LD% and FB%. I’m still using this as an opportunity to buy low on Harang as I do believe there’s a long run of great production coming. His situation reminds me a little bit of the stretch CC Sabathia went through earlier in the season where the velocity was there but the command in the strike zone wasn’t and he was getting hit hard. I have to believe this ends soon and I thought we had gotten past hit with his great performance against the Red Sox, but for now his owners need to show patience. Those looking to improve their pitching, take a shot at making a play for Harang who’s value couldn’t be any lower.
Sean Gallagher:
Gallagher’s really solidifying his spot on the rotation as he tossed his 5th consecutive start of 3 ER’s or less. Unfortunately this was just the 2nd to qualify as a quality start as Gallagher has struggled with high pitch counts, which Schuyler recently mentioned. This was the case again on Thursday as Gallagher needed 112 pitches to get through 6 innings. While the control issues have manifested in the pitch count they haven’t been too prevalent in his BB Rates. On Thursday, Gallagher walked just 2 in his 6 innings and allowed just 4 hits and 1 unearned run, while striking out 3. He lowered his ERA to 3.97 and his WHIP is a respectable 1.32 with a K Rate of .82. There is a lot to like out of the youngster as a nice spot starting option. One concern to note for Gallagher is that his HR/FB Rate is extremely low right now, I’d imagine one day with the wind blowing out in Wrigley will help correct this at some point this summer and Gallagher’s ERA will settle in the mid 4’s.
Rafael Soriano:
After doing a piece on paying attention to managers’ quotes earlier in the season one quote out of Atlanta really struck me the other day as Bobby Cox was quoted as saying “I’m not even sure when he wants to throw” when asked about Rafael Soriano. The quote suggests some frustration possibly on the Braves end with Soriano’s unwillingness to “let it go” and test the elbow and shows some serious concerns Soriano has himself with the health of his right arm. I mentioned earlier in the year that Soriano had gotten a boost in value with Smoltz’s injury but it wouldn’t only last as long as his elbow would allow it. At this point, I have extremely little faith in Soriano’s ability to stay healthy for any significant period of time for the rest of the season. If you’re counting on him for any kind of save production I think you’re in trouble. I’ll go out on a limb and say it, I don’t think Soriano notches a single save the rest of the season. If you have DL slots its worth an outside chance of holding onto him, but if you’re pressed for roster space I’d have no problem cutting Soriano as I don’t expect any fantasy value going forward.
Doug Davis:
Davis finally bucked the good start/bad start trend by pitching his best game of the season against the A’s. Davis surrendered just 1 ER on 3 hits and 2 BB’s over 6 innings while striking out 8. It’s the 2nd consecutive strong outing for Davis and his 3rd in his last 4 outings. While the performance has been good of late and Davis provides pretty good K and W potential, I wouldn’t advise investing in him in traditional mixed formats for anything more than an occasional spot start. Davis’ peripherals are actually deteriorating this season as he’s issuing more BB’s and more Fly Balls, a deathly combination, but he’s benefited from some incredible luck in his Strand Rate (.77) that is masking nearly a full run of difference in his Actual and Expected ERA. Inevitably the Strand Rate will regress and Davis’ ERA will settle back into the mid-to-high 4’s, along with a difficult WHIP to stomach makes him a difficult pitcher to roster in any mixed leagues.
Michael Barrett:
A lot of times in extremely deep formats you’ll see owners utilize Catchers that don’t play to fill out their roster, with the idea being an essentially empty slot for statistics is better than one that murders my batting average. Case in point: Michael Barrett. After spending 3 years as an offensive force with the Cubs, Barrett has completely fallen off the fantasy radar, bottoming with his current .172/.247/.250 line. Last year all of the peripherals deteriorated and the drops in production matched the deterioration in his actual skills. This year he’s brought his BB Rate back up and his LD% of 23.5% suggests a .172 batting average isn’t deserved. But his K Rate has risen a bit and his extra base hit rate has completely disappeared and the combination of those two suggests some significant slowing in his bat speed. While Barrett’s average will likely rebound some, his value as a whole is limited because he won’t offer much power or run production
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