Welcome to the Fantasy Week 13 edition of Value Picks. While I will still provide a list of players to snag off of your waiver wires for a good value, I'm also going to include a couple of players who are excellent trade targets. Basically, these trade candidates are underperforming and may cause frustrated owners to prematurely pull-the-trigger on an exchange that leaves you will the better value. Good luck... here we go. -- Joe
VALUE PICKS:
1) Kurt Suzuki (Catcher - Oakland A's) - We wrote about Kurt Suzuki earlier in the week, but he deserves a mention in the value picks section as his ownership still hovers around 10%. For the season, his numbers are modest: .278, 0.51 FPI, 0.694 OPS, 26 RBI, and a BB/K batting eye of 0.60. Over the last month, he's been red-hot, hitting .359 in June with a .954 OPS, 0.85 FPI, a couple of HR's in 64 AB, and a B/K of 1.0. While typically Suzuki's numbers wouldn't even be sniffed at in any mixed league, the shallowness of the catcher position gives Suzuki fantasy consideration. Assuming a typical 12-team league, trying to name the Top-12 fantasy catchers is a debate that begins after the top-3. Names such as Brian McCann, Victor Martinez, Russell Martin and Joe Mauer are no-brainers. The Ryan Doumit and Geo Soto trains have already been sold-out by fantasy owners. The remaining six names may include guys such as Jorge Posada, Pudge Rodriguez, or AJ Pierzynski, but you can see there remains that last-tier of catchers which is very difficult to fill. Suzuki won't go crazy with the long-ball nor give you that gigantic day of production. But he does have the ability to steadily contribute to average and runs. If nothing else, he becomes a decent back-up option if you own on of the guys listed above and they become injured.
2. Jeff Francis (Starting Pitcher - Colorado Rockies) - Jeff Francis is a big enough name not to have to make this list. But as of this morning, his ownership has dipped below 20% according to ESPN.com. A good reason for that huge drop is his 5.65 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, .278 BAA, 6.2 K/9 and 1.10 GO/AO. That's quite a drop from last year's 4.22 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 and 1.16 GO/AO rate. That's an even further drop from his 2006 levels of 4.16 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5.3 K/9, and 1.17 GO/AO. Francis' performance on Monday against the Kansas City Royals was probably the last straw for many fantasy owners. He gave up 7 ER in 4.1 IP for his 7th loss of the season. While he is no doubt a risky pick-up, his recent history combined with an analysis of his June starts gives me a reason to consider him good value going forward. Prior to Monday's start, Francis was 3-for-4 in quality starts in June with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Those four starts were against some decent teams too, including the White Sox, Brewers, Indians, and Dodgers. Francis' next two starts come against the Tigers and the Marlins. Watch this weekend's Tigers start very carefully. A quality start in that game would make him 4-for-6 in QS this month and give him some momentum going into the Florida game next fantasy week.
3. Khalil Greene (Shortstop - San Diego Padres) - He was a value pick back on May 14th and continues to be a decent pickup at a weak SS position. His months of April and May were terrible. Through May 31st, Greene was hitting .205 with a .570 OPS, and a 0.33 FPI. In June, Greene is hitting a very respectable .296 with a .793 OPS, and a 0.66 FPI. This recent month of production is slow momentum toward turning his season around. He only has 7 HR on the season for a HR/AB of 40.1, down from last year's 22.6 rate when he hit 27 HR. So, not only does he have overall upside, but he's a quiet candidate to provide some power out of your SS position going forward.
4. Mike Cameron (Outfiield - Milwaukee Brewers) - I am not sure why Mike Cameron isn't getting noticed in the 80% of the leagues he is not owned. Cameron began the season late after serving his suspension, so he only has 165 AB to his name. Keeping that in mind, Cameron has 12 HR for a rate of 13.8, 5 SB in 6 attempts, and 28 RBI in 42 games. He's only hitting .218, but he still has a 0.57 FPI. Power and speed for free (while giving up a little average) is the valuation on Cameron. 20 stolen bases and 20 HR is a very feasible achievement in 2008. Consider your current roster and count the number of 20/20 candidates on your team. Cameron deserves a shot when playing everyday (he sat out 3 games this past week with a hyperextended toe, but was back in the lineup to start this fantasy week. He should be ok going forward).
5. Dave Bush (Starting Pitcher - Milwaukee Brewers) - Dave Bush is my 2-start pitcher for next fantasy week. His two match-ups come against the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Pittsburgh Pirates. As a team, the Diamondbacks are in the bottom-5 in team batting average and the Pirates rank in the middle in 7th place. But this blurb isn't about the ranking of team stats - its about Dave Bush's value for next week. Bush has 5 quality starts in his last 6 outings with a 3.00 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and a K/BB of 3.5 (even though his K/9 is just 4.85). He's been on fire and is only owned in less than 3% of leagues.
TRADE CANDIDATES:
1. Nick Swisher (Outfield / First Base - Chicago White Sox) - I'm sure I'm not the only fantasy owner to beg Swisher on a weekly basis to turn his season around. Afterall, through June 24th, Swisher is hitting just .237 with a .740 OPS and 0.53 FPI. Before being traded to Chicago, Swisher hit .262 with a .832 OPS and a 0.64 FPI in Oakland in 2006. 2005 revealed similar figures, with a .254 average, .857 OPS, and 0.65 FPI. So, a move to the central division and to the midwest has yielded a drop in FPI of about 10 FPI points. So what gives? Nothing. He has already started to turn his season around, but fantasy owners continue to keep him benched. In June alone, Swisher is hitting .329 with a .999 OPS and a 0.84 FPI. His HR/AB this month is 18.3 and his BB/K is 0.71. Given Swisher's abysmal first two months of the season, fantasy owners may be quick to deal Swisher at a cheap price. I think that's a deal worth making that not only will provide some power boost to your team, but will also give you a little position flexibility with 1B/OF eligibility.
2. Rickie Weeks (Second Base - Milwaukee Brewers) - As Drew wrote on Monday, Weeks continues to be an upside candidate to break-out. I truly believe his injury woes are the main cause for his inability to really break-out as a major fantasy contributor. Weeks may be a value pick, as his ownership exchange percentages have gone through the roof over the past few weeks. But with his return to the lineup from the disabled list on Sunday, Weeks displayed a little show on Monday of why he has the potential to post some decent numbers. He went 3-for-4 with a double and a run scored. Of course, he followed that up with an O-fer in yesterday's ballgame. Despite a .213 average and a .325 OBP this season, Weeks has still scored 45 runs, scoring with great production behind him from Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. If nothing else, Weeks will score runs and steal the occasional base. He won't drop any further in fantasy value and his numbers can really only go up from here (unless he gets injured again). He's a calculated risk.
