AL Player Spotlight - June 2, 2008
BJ Upton - Upton's HR total remains low with just 3 in 197 AB for a rate of 65.7, but the rest of his game is making up for his low power numbers. He's hitting .305 with a .417 OBP, 0.82 FPI, amd 17 SB in 23 attempts. Consider those numbers relative to last year's numbers of .300, .384 OBP, 0.78 FPI, and 22 SB in 30 attempts. Basically the same, except his HR total in 2007 was 24 at a rate of 19.8. Its just a matter of time before the ball starts flying out of the park and that HR/AB rate improves greatly. Upton has matured as a hitter in a short matter of time and he should rediscover his power swing soon. A good indicator of his maturity is his BB/K rate year-over-year. In 2007, he posted a .42 while this year he's at .81, almost doubling the amount of times he walks relative to striking out.
Hideki Matsui - Anybody paying attention to Hideki Matsui in the Bronx? With all of the talk surrounding A-Rod's injuries, the Yankee pitching woes, and Joba's move from the bullpen to the rotation, Matsui is quietly hitting .330 with a 0.74 FPI and a .401 OBP. Godzilla's HR totals aren't anything impressive with just 6 dingers at a rate of 32.3, but he should still finish with 20. Even with a majority of the Yankee rotation mired in 2-month slumps, Matsui's batting eye, measured as BB/K, is especially impressive at 1.045 (23 walks and 22 strike outs). While these numbers are a little surprising, they aren't exactly shocking. Matsui always had the potential to put it all together to hit for high average, but injuries and a long-season in LF yielded a drop-off in overall potential production. Now, manager Joe Girardi is keeping Matsui just a little healthier by platooning him in the DH spot. We might see a little drop-off, but getting a 0.70 FPI out of Matsui for the full-season would be a great return on his pre-season valuation.
Raul Ibanez - Ibanez continues to be one of the streakiest fantasy players. His month-long slump of May was broken yesterday as he started June with a HR in his last AB of Sunday's game. Thinking Roto, Ibanez has had a decent overall first couple of months. He has 8 HR, 37 RBI, .781 OPS, and a 0.58 FPI. He probably gets more credit than what he's actually worth in the OF, given a solid month of April and a 33 HR season a couple of years ago. He's probably relatively replaceable with other free agent outfielders who post similar sub-.60 FPI numbers, but he's worth the risk given his power potential. Even with a disappointing 2007, he still hit 21 HR and drove-in 100 runs.
Michael Cuddyer - Cuddyer started the season slow and then spent some time on the disabled list with an injury to his hand, but he's starting to turn it around. In his last 10-games, Cuddyer is hitting .318 with 11 RBI, 5 BB, 14 hits, and a HR. Cuddyer is a free agent in a lot of mixed leagues, but should be able to produce at a 0.60 FPI level for the remainder of the season. Looking back on his career, his 2006 season gave us a 0.68 FPI with an .860 OPS, .355 OBP, 24 HR, and 109 RBI. He dropped-off last year with a 0.61 FPI, but still hit 16 HR and drove-in 81 RBI in about 550 AB. I would pick-him up expecting and hoping for a 0.60 FPI, .275 average, .800 OPS, a HR/AB of about 25.0, and minimal SB totals. If that seems like a better option than any of your current OF, I'd go for it.
Darrel Rasner - Rasner gave up a few runs early in yesterday's game, but did settle down before being removed in the 6th inning. He finished with a pitching line of 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K's, 2 BB, and 8 hits. It was easily his worst start of the season for the Yanks, as he started his short-starter career hurling four quality starts in a row. He is still posting a 2.67 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 5.6 K/9 and if the Yankees start clicking, should get plenty of run support. Because he's a relatively unknown name and simply a rotation replacement for the injured Yankee starters, he is probably being undervalued in fantasy formats. Add on the his next start comes against the Royals and he comes a decent pitch-and-ditch candidate for the upcoming Fantasy Week 10.
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