AL Daily Player Notes - June 9, 2008
Jason Giambi - Maybe its the mustache. Maybe its the hot weather. Maybe its his unique choice of undergarments. Whatever it is, he's on fire and looks like the old MVP Giambi. Since May 1st, Giambi is hitting .333 with a 1.144 OPS, .456 OBP, HR/AB of 10.3 and FPI of 0.94. You know he's seeing the ball well again when he posts a batting eye of 0.83. He drew 14 walks in May and already has 7 this month. While he certainly should be in your lineup when he's putting up these crooked numbers, its best not to get too crazy about his prospective performance. A little sobering statistical proof shows the occasional hot month for Giambi is not rare. In April 2007, Giambi hit .322 with a .921 OPS, 4 HR, and 17 RBI followed by a .177 May 2007 with a .673 OPS, 3 HR, and 6 RBI. Same trend happened in April 2006, when he hit .344 with a 1.406 OPS, 9 HR, and 27 RBI only to follow-up with a .233 May 2006, .808 OPS, 4 HR, and 13 RBI. I would love to think I have found a free 0.85 FPI player on the free agent wire (as I'm definitely riding the Giambi streak in most of my leagues right now), but be careful not to fall to hard for him. Don't let him overstay his welcome on your fantasy roster.
Jermaine Dye - With all of the distractions on the south side of Chicago (mostly caused by Ozzie's weekly rants), Jermaine Dye is having a solid fantasy season. He's currently working on a 6-game hitting streak and has 3 multi-hit games in the last four days. He even earned his first SB of the season yesterday as well. For the season, Dye is hitting .295 with an .843 OPS, .66 FPI, and a 22.0 HR/AB (for a total of 10 dingers for the year). Projecting for the season, Dye is on-pace to flirt with the 30 HR mark, 170 hits, and 90 runs. The RBI total is a little low (only 25 for the year, which puts him on pace for just 65), but if lower-than-usual OBP from most of the other members of the White Sox lineup may be a direct cause for the lack of RBI opportunities. I expect that pace to pick-up over the summer.
Ervin Santana - The lesser Santana looked more like The Johan on Sunday. He went 6.1 IP and gave up 7 hits and 2 ER while striking out 9 and walking 3. He didn't factor into the decision. He is now 10-for-13 in QS (QS % of 76.9%) and is posting a 3.01 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 7.6 K/9. Those are fantastic numbers this deep into the season, but Santana has gotten very little coverage. He has been able to keep the BB totals low (1.9 BB/9 and a K/BB of 4.0) and the HR/9 of 0.70 keeps him from big blow-up innings. Don't underestimate the importance of that low HR/9 for Santana. With a GO/AO of 0.72, he may be more prone to giving up HRs. For now, he's on fire and should be recognized as one of the great surprises of 2008.
CC Sabathia - Can we start talking about a CC Sabathia trade yet or is it too soon? The Indians are 8.5 games behind the 1st place White Sox as of June 9th and we all know that CC Sabathia is in a contract year. While mixed leagues probably don't have to worry too much about Sabathia's fantasy value if he is traded as the deadline slowly creeps-up on us, NL-only or AL-only leagues should start to think about the possible gain/loss of Sabathia's eligibility in their respective leagues. Every league has different rules about waiver wire pick-ups or player eligibliity once they are traded to a different league. Maybe you want to consider making a trade to hedge against the possible loss if Sabathia does change leagues.
Nick Swisher - Could the weekend's heatwave have caused Nick Swisher to heat up at the plate? He has 2 HR in the last 6 days and had back-to-back multi-hit games on Saturday and Sunday. We all had high expectations for Swisher when he moved from Oakland to the friendlier confines of U.S. Cellular field. Historically, Swisher posted 0.65 and 0.64FPIs over the last two years, but is only posting a 0.46 so far in 2008. A 30 HR year was predicted for Swisher, but we have actually seen a drop in his HR/AB from 15.9 in 2006 and 24.5 in 2007 to 35.5 in 2008. If he's showing signs of breaking out, I'd grab him from the wires if frustrated owners went in a different direction after the first month. Even if Swisher posts a 0.60FPI and a 25.0 HR/AB for the remainder of the way, that should be good enough to give him #3 Fantasy OF status.
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