Grady Sizemore – Sizemore had a monster 2006 season in which he had an amazing 92 extra base hits, an average of .57 extra base hits per game. Sizemore was solid last season, but even in that year and so far this year he is yet to show the same explosiveness at the plate. Last year he had 29 less extra base hits. Currently, he is averaging only .33 extra base hits per game, after going 0 - 3 last night. Interestingly, Sizemore’s distribution of line drives, ground balls, and fly balls has been virtually identical this year and last year as it was to that 2006 season. Meanwhile Sizemore’s EYE has actually improves. Up to .65 last year, from .52 in ’06, and it is at .78 so far on this season. So, it is very intriguing as to why Sizemore’s extra base hits have declined. Maybe other pitchers are learning to stay away from his hot zones, turning some of his doubles into singles, but for now I am buying low on Sizemore, figuring his final stat line will end up somewhere between his 2006 and 2007 levels.
Ryan Garko – Garko might make for a nice buy low player. It is highly unlikely that he, and the Cleveland offense as a whole, will stay this cold for the entire season. Through his first 27 games, Garko was hit .237, but that was in large part due to a .208 singles average. The past two seasons Garko’s singles averages were .268 and .263, and since Garko’s EYE has actually improved quite a bit this year (to 1 from .36), there is no explanation for his dip in singles average other than bad luck. Also, Garko’s HR rate is a mere 1.9. It was 4 last season and 3.6 the year before. Garko should go on a hot streak sometime soon, as his singles average and HR rate should start to return to their normal levels soon.
Andy Sonnanstine – Sonnanstine had rough outing, giving up 10 hits and 4 earned runs in 6 innings of work versus the Blue Jays. However, it was good enough to improve his record to 5-1. Sonnanstine has developed into a serviceable fantasy pitcher in AL-only leagues. Most of his success is a result of excellent control. Sonnanstine is allowing just 1.86 walks per 9 innings pitched. Many people probably wrote Sonnanstine off, after he posted a 5.86 ERA last season, but he was rather unlucky. His BABIP was .327, and that was reflected in the fact that his expected ERA was over a full run lower than that terribly high ERA of 5.86. Sonnanstine, if he improves his K rate to what it was last year (.51 this season, .71 last season) could very well post an ERA in the low 4’s and a WHIP around 1.25. Also, remember, that Sonnanstine’s ERA and WHIP (4.13 and 1.16) reflect two very rough starts versus the Yankees.
Gavin Floyd – Now might be the perfect time to sell high on Gavin Floyd. Last night, Floyd, for the second time this year, flirted with a no hitter, until Joe Mauer hit a double with one out in the 9th. Floyd’s final line was 8.3 IP with 4 strikeouts and 3 walks. He also allowed an unearned run. You hate to discredit a guy too much after a performance like that, but Floyd continues to live on the edge. Tony mentioned Floyd’s fly ball tendencies, and 11 of Floyd’s outs came via fly outs. Yet, Floyd’s HR:FB% (7.8%) is almost half of his career average (14.8%). When that number rises, along with his BABIP (.171 and sure to be lower after last night), Floyd is going to run into a few tough outings, and it would not surprise me to see his ERA above 4 before long.
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