Roy Oswalt – Oswalt had another shaky outing last night, even though he received the victory. Oswalt gave up four runs (three earned) in six innings. Three of those runs scored on two Milwaukee homers, and it seems as if Oswalt is having a much tougher time keeping the ball in the park than ever before. Entering last night’s start, Oswalt was giving up 1.75 HR/9, which was a full homerun per game more than his career average. With the 2 homers he gave up last night, Oswalt has now allowed 9 homeruns in 7 games started. That is an alarming amount when you consider that the most homers Oswalt has ever given up in a season was 18 in 2005 and 2006. He gave up just 14 last year in 33 games. Now, there is definitely hope here, if Oswalt is able to figure out how to keep the ball in the park. His walk and strikeout totals are not what they once were, but they are more or less in line with what he has done the past few seasons. Meaning, that other than the homeruns, bad luck is the main component to Oswalt’s bad start. His BABIP is .344 (career average of .310), and his LOB% is 69.3% (career average of 76.7%).
Khalil Greene – Greene has been a big disappointment so far this season (.216/.272/.279 before last night’s game). He did hit his first homer of the year last night, so maybe that will help him to jump start things a bit. The scary thing is that Green’s singles average is actually about 20 points higher than his previous three average. So that .216 batting average is not the result of bad luck, but the result of a player who has shown no power this year (7 extra base hits in 30 games) and has a horrible batting EYE (.35 this year, .36 for his career). The funny thing about this is Greene is actually hitting more line drives and fly balls, at least percentage wise, than in any other year, which you would think would result in more extra base hits and a lower singles average. The opposite has happened to Greene, leaving me at a loss as to why he is performing so poorly. There’s a good chance that there is something mechanically wrong with his swing, and you should definitely avoid him until he figures it out.
Pat Burrell – Pat Burrell is showing no signs of slowing down. He slugged his ninth homer of the year last night, a 2 out 2-run walk off homer in the bottom of the 10th off of San Francisco closer Brian Wilson. Part of the reason for Burrell’s success is an improvement in his EYE, and this is not something that I think is a fluke. Since 2004, Burrell’s EYE has been on a consistent rise (.60/.62/.73/.95/1.05). So, not only do I think his power is for real, but his average may very well be too. Hitters with an EYE of 1 or greater are often .300 hitters. You might wonder why if his EYE is increasing, his batting average has not (prior to this year). Well, Burrell posted unlucky singles averages in both 2006 and 2007 (.220 and .235 respectively). The two years before that, his singles averages were .267 and .287. Burrell’s true skill set probably gives him a singles average around .252 (an average of the past four years). So, Burrell’s singles average this year (.275) will probably come down, but not as much as one might think at first look.
Corey Patterson – Entering play last night, Patterson’s AVG/OBP/SLG line was .214/.280/.464. The concern here, above everything else, is that Patterson will lose his job to youngster Jay Bruce before given time to right the ship. Patterson really has struggled due to bad luck, and there are plenty of encouraging signs. Currently, his singles average is absurdly low (.086). His EYE is good though (1.333), and his contact rate is great (90%). Another good sign is that out of Corey’s 18 hits, 12 have been for extra bases (4 homers, 7 doubles, and 1 triple). If you are in need of an outfielder, especially in an NL only league, you might want to target Patterson once his luck begins to turn around.
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