Jay Bergmann – Bergmann threw 7 innings of shutout ball yesterday picking up the win. He impressively struck out 9 along the way, while walking just 2. This start might come as a surprise because entering the game Bergmann had an 11.68 ERA. A closer look shows that Bergmann may be useful in NL only leagues though. Despite the high ERA, Bergmann had struck out 12 versus just 2 walks in 12.3 IP. Also, Bergmann suffered from some horrible luck. His BABIP was .397, and his LOB% was an absurdly low 40%. Compounding the problem is that Bergmann gave up 5 HR in those 12.3 IP. He is a fly ball pitcher meaning he is susceptible to the long ball, but still he is unlikely to keep giving up 3.65 HR/9 (career mark is 1.53 HR/9). Clearly, Bergmann is not as bad of a pitcher as his early numbers previous to yesterday’s start might indicate. In fact, after yesterday’s start he finds himself with a very respectable K:BB of 5.25 and K rate of 1.09.
Mark Teixeira – Teixeira went 0 – 4 yesterday, and he also continues to struggle. Entering the game his average was .254. Part of the reason for that is Teixeira has had an unlucky singles average, and when that evens out, we should expect Teixeira’s average to be around his career average of .284. However, Teixeira’s current HR rate (2.7) is definitely a concern. A look at Teixeira’s FB% helps to explain this. Over the past two seasons, Teixeira’s FB% has been 40.9%, but so far this year it is just 34.7%. On top of that, the percentage of fly balls that have gone for homeruns is just 11.9%, compared to his career average of 18.9%. Now, Teixeira’s HR:FB% should rise back up to his career average mark, but watch to see if he starts putting the ball in the air more as that should help turn around his power numbers (currently just 5 homers).
Nate McLouth – I keep telling myself that McLouth will slow down, and instead he keeps getting hotter. McLouth hit his 11th homer of the season yesterday. McLouth’s power development actually started last season. In 2006 his ISO power was just .152. Last season his ISO increased to .201, and this year it is a whopping .297. McLouth’s increase in ISO power has been triggered by a change in approach at the plate. In 2006 his GB/FB ratio was 1.11. That has dropped off dramatically this season and last (.58 and .63 respectively). Clearly putting the ball in the air more often has benefited McLouth, and as a result, his power is for real.
Ryan Howard – Howard is trying to break out of a season long slump, and he hit his 9th homer of the season last night to help get him started in the right direction. A week ago Joe pointed out Howard’s almost comical tendency to strikeout this season. Sure enough, Howard’s EYE in his monster 2006 campaign, in which he hit 58 HR and boasted a .313 batting average, was .60. Last season, Howard’s average and power numbers dipped as his EYE dipped to .54. This season, with Howard hitting just .182, his EYE sits at .34. If Howard wants to turn around his season, he is going to need to improve his EYE. His high strikeout tendency has allowed him to make contact just 61% of the time, which is awful. In 2006 his contact rate was 69% (not good but certainly better than what it is now). Howard certainly will not hit .182 all season, but his decreasing EYE worries me that we will never see another 2006 type season out of him.
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