Scott Olsen: Thanks to an 81% strand rate and a .171 BHIP%, it looks like Scott Olsen has turned a corner, 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA in 8 starts. However his underlying numbers tell the real story, 4.0 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and a 37% GB%. This is the ideal time to sell high on Olsen.
Hiroki Kuroda: On the surface, 3.59 ERA in 8 starts, it appears that Kuroda has made a smooth transition from the Japanese League to the Major Leagues. However, below the radar are some soft skills, 4.9 K/9 and a 46% GB%. At 33 years of age, he is well beyond his growth years, so this is probably as good as it will get.
Ian Snell: In his first three seasons, Snell had a nice K/9, 2005/2006/2007 #’s of 7.3/8.2/7.7, while showing nice growth in two key areas, BB/9’s of 5.1/3.6/2.9 and GB%’s of 37%/43%/46%. With those kind of skills and getting near his prime years, much was expected of the 26-year-old, but he has disappointed so far, 4.53 ERA in 8 starts. What is even more troubling is that he has taken a step back in three key skills; 5.7 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, and a 43% GB%. He showed enough last year to make him a good buy low candidate, but if his underlying numbers don’t improve over the next 3 or 4 starts, that would no longer be the case.
Nate McLouth: Despite a recent slump, McLouth is still batting .307 with outstanding power numbers, 9 home runs and 13 doubles in 150 AB. Some may argue that his early season hot streak was a fluke, but consider that his batting average is actually being held down by a .208 BHIP% and that his peripherals are excellent, 87% Ct% and a 10.7 BB%. This is a real breakout and is the perfect time to try and pry him from an unsuspecting owner.
Bill Hall: It has been a strange beginning of the season for Hall. He is showing the power, 8 home runs, which seemed to abandon him last year, 2006/2007 HR’s of 35/14, but still cannot get off the interstate, .199 batting average in 141 AB. With a 47% GB%, expect Hall’s power numbers to cool off, but his .159 BHIP% points to some nice batting average upside. At one time Hall was a speed source, 18 steals in 24 attempts in 2005, but he has simply become a terrible base stealer, 13 steals and 17 caught steals over the last three seasons. You can no longer count on him for speed.
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