Jeff Francoeur
Frenchy’s mired in a 5-31 slump that’s dropped his average to .263. Despite the slow start there are some legitimate reasons for optimism surrounding Francoeur. He’s improved his EYE up to .50, largely thanks to a significant drop in his K Rate (down from 18.5% to 8.5%). Furthermore the drop in his K Rate hasn’t corresponded in a drop in his power as his extra base hit rate has actually improved. He’s also suffering from some abnormally bad luck as evidenced by his .191 BHIP%. All are good signs for Frenchy and suggest he makes for an excellent buy-low target, start putting proposals together now because the bat’s going to heat up and the power’s going to come in bunches.
Chris Iannetta:
Iannetta’s a guy that a number of us here have maintained confidence in despite the early season playing time concerns and now it’s time to instruct you to transition from “keeping an eye on him” to “going out and getting him”. In fact when writing the Value Picks column earlier this week I had a tough decision who to choose between Snyder and Iannetta but went with Snyder because I felt bigger things were on the verge immediately. Iannetta’s got an intriguing bat, highlighted by his .303/.407/.508 career minor league line, and now it appears he’s got the playing time to go with it. Iannetta’s received 3 or more plate appearances in 5 consecutive games and was a late insert into Thursday’s lineup as manager Clint Hurdle wanted to keep the hot bat in the lineup. Iannetta promptly rewarded Hurdle with a 2 RBI 1B in the first inning. Rockie hitters are always worth a look and one with the minor league history that Iannetta has REALLY deserves a look. He’s another guy who has a chance to be a Top 10 catching option from here on out because of the favorable home park and lineup. He should absolutely be owned in all 2 catcher formats and is the type of guy I prefer to try to catch lightening in a bottle with rather than investing in the boring and relatively unproductive veteran catchers like Pierzynski, Varitek, Pudge, etc.
Ryan Ludwick:
This is getting rather ridiculous don’t you think? Ryan Ludwick hit 2 more HR’s on Thursday capping off his ridiculous trip to Coors Field in which he went 9-13 with 3 2B’s and 3 HR’s. Ludwick now has 20 extra base hits in 91 AB’s and is hitting .363/.427/.758. He’s slugging .758!!! I don’t even know what to say because he’s hitting so many flipping extra base hits that his .289 BHIP% doesn’t seem ridiculous. Now, we all know this can’t continue but the truth is Ludwick’s always had power, slugging .501 for his minor league career in which he hit 140 HR’s and 183 2B’s in 2780 AB’s. Ludwick’s showing the same strikeout rates that left his minor league average in the .270’s so I’d expect the average to come down in a hard way with a prolonged strikeout laden slump. But he’s also showing an improved BB Rate which shows improved pitch recognition and likely will lead to the continued strong power outputs. He’s a tough “sell-high” candidate since most probably don’t believe this can last, so he’s likely better to hold onto than to deal. But the power is very much for real and Ludwick looks on his way to producing the type of season we expected out of Rick Ankiel coming into the year (lots of power, lots of K’s, middling batting average).
Garrett Atkins:
Atkins just keeps hitting as he extended his hitting streak to 7 games with a 2-3 performance on Thursday. Atkins has now hit safely in 21 of his last 22 games and has gone hitless in just FIVE games all year long! It’s not surprising to see Atkins hitting, but what is surprising is how much he’s hitting and when he’s hitting. Atkins improved his line to .326/.355/.535, quite an impressive line for a traditional 2nd half hitter (career .827 1st half OPS vs. .880 2nd half OPS). Atkins looks to be on his way to replicating his monstrous 2006 season with the strong start in ’08 but one thing that’s not translating is his EYE. Atkins isn’t walking at all right now with just 7 BB’s in his first 144 AB’s, while his K Rate has remained relatively stable. A quick look at Atkins P/PA (pitchers/plate appearance) shows a drastic drop from his consistent 3.80-3.90 down to 3.39 this season. This suggests Atkins is simply seeing a lot of pitches he likes early in at bats and hacking away. When he’s fouling off pitches he’s getting behind and striking out at the same rate he has in the past but putting more balls in play early in the count. The lack of walks is always a concern for a batter who’s shown great plate discipline in the past, but I think this is more of an indication that Atkins feels good at the plate right now and is seeing a lot to hit rather than a decline in his skill level.
Rich Hill:
I haven’t been able to touch on Rich Hill and since I have quite a bit of emotion and passion tied up in this situation I feel the need to get this out there. Before I get into this any further it should be known that I feel strongly that Hill’s poor performance is a mental roadblock that stems from a bit of a fragile psyche and an overbearing and impatient manager. Hill’s demotion was utterly ridiculous given the way Lou Pineilla has handled the rest of the Cubs staff, specifically veterans Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. While Lilly and Marquis have struggled with their control early in the season and struggled lasting deep into games they had yet to be publically threatened through the media like Hill was (After Marquis terrible start Sunday night, Pineilla finally had to address the situation, likely because of the way he handled Hill). From the first struggles Hill had this season, Pineilla began rumbling that he might send Hill to the bullpen. When Hill did have moderate success, Pineilla noted through the media that he was trying to give Hill confidence by pulling him early (Note to Lou: Good idea, but don’t tell the media essentially confirming publicly that YOU the manager have little confidence in the starter). In any game Hill pitched, Pineilla exhibited a quick hook and an itchy dial finger for the bullpen. Any sign of trouble and the bullpen would start. Then Pineilla began skipping Rich Hill’s starts. Having a player struggling with command pitch on 8 days rest is an interesting tactic for a pitcher you’re trying to help find their rhythm. Finally Rich Hill was pulled from a 1-0 game in the first inning with the bases loaded and 2 outs after he walked four of the first six batters. Two days later Jason Marquis walked 3 of the first 5 batters (the same exact situation as Hill) and the bullpen didn’t warm. Marquis was left in and gave up a line drive rocket that luckily found Derrek Lee’s glove. While all the other starters have had a chance to work through their control problems on the mound, Hill has been given a one way ticket to Iowa. For a guy who hasn’t responded well to pressure in the past, breathing down his neck on every start and publicly displaying your lack of confidence in him didn’t seem like a very intelligent way to handle the young player. Regardless, what’s done is done. In Hill’s first start in the minors, he walked just 1 in 5 innings while striking out 5. In my opinion this furthers the opinion that this isn’t a mechanical issue and it’s more in Rich’s head. Don’t get me wrong, the main issue with this situation is Rich Hill’s fragile psyche, but I don’t particularly feel the manager put the player in the best situation to perform here and I worry about Hill’s long-term ability to have success pitching in front of Pineilla’s over-bearing nature. Hopefully Jon Lieber’s horrendous outing on Wednesday shows Pineilla that he needs Hill and if Hill’s going to regain confidence and pitch instead of aiming the ball, as Pineilla has publicly asked him to do, maybe Hill’s confidence would be helped by a manager that actually exhibits confidence in him. While Lieber was getting blown up (I still like Lieber if he gets two starts next week. In fact I like any Cubs starter not named Marquis who gets two starts next week), I went and scooped up Rich Hill in every league he was available. I don’t think this is a mechanical issue that needs to be fixed and I think Hill will prove that with another good start this weekend, after which he’ll be called up immediately. Hill’s value for the rest of the season is one of those things you either believe in or you don’t. While I’m worried Pineilla’s managerial style isn’t conducive to Hill’s success, I do believe in Rich Hill’s talent. So for now I’m hoarding him on the bench and I suggest you do the same.
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