Dan Uggla:
I’ve noted in the past that I’m not a big Uggla supporter because of the negative impact he can have on your batting average, but I also noted Uggla’s a traditionally slow starter who heats up in May and June. For his career Uggla’s posted OPS of .752-.962-.903 in the first 3 months of the season, before he settles into his usual .800 or so range. So when the calendar turned to May we could expect Uggla to get going a little bit, based on past precedent. Sure enough he’s swinging the hot stick to start the month going 5-14 with 3 HR’s and 7 RBI’s in the first 4 days of the month. If you’re an Uggla owner I’d anticipate a big May and June and then consider selling thereafter as he tends to fade ever so slightly towards the end of the season, deriving much of his production in those 2 months.
Bronson Arroyo:
I was a supporter of Arroyo’s coming into the season as many of his numbers were impacted by a 6 start stretch after he was left to throw in 130+ pitches in a start last season in SD. Without that atrocious 6 start stretch Arroyo was pretty similar to the starter he was in 2006. Unfortunately in my analysis I failed to take into account the fact that Dusty Baker would likely put Arroyo in some similar situations this year. Sure enough, this has been the case as Arroyo’s been bombed in two starts this season which make up the vast majority of the damage in his 8.63 ERA and both disaster starts have come directly after Arroyo was left in for 110+ pitches. While Arroyo hasn’t been great by any means in the other starts, I do still think there’s some upside in Arroyo going forward as his K Rate remains solid. Arroyo also had a pretty large 1st half/2nd half split last year (4.84/3.55 ERA), so there’s also the chance he’s just a slow starter. If you are going to roster Arroyo make sure to avoid any starts directly after he eclipses the 110 pitch mark as their seems to be some serious concerns with this barrier and his arm strength in the following outing.
Adam LaRoche:
LaRoche just doesn’t enjoy hitting in April very much. After posting a .520 OPS to start 2007 in April, LaRoche followed up by posting a .472 OPS in April of 2008. The good news is April’s over and LaRoche seems to have gotten the message as he’s gone 5-13 with a HR and a 1.077 OPS in his first 3 May games. Last year after the horrid start LaRoche posted an OPS above .780 in each of the remaining 5 months. LaRoche has likely been discarded in many formats because of the terrible start and for those in deeper leagues he makes for an immediate pickup and for those in traditional formats he’s a nice UTIL or CI option. Don’t worry about the slow start or the horrid indicators (which trust me aren’t very pretty), because LaRoche has a bit of a track record with this. He’s going to hit from here on out and in fantasy we only pay for numbers going forward.
Ian Snell:
Another rough outing for Ian Snell on Sunday dropped his record to 2-2 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. While we’ve discussed Snell’s struggles early in the season noting the poor luck accompanied with the poor early season control, one thing we haven’t noted is the alarming lack of strikeouts from Snell’s repertoire. Snell struck out just 2 batters on Sunday and now has 22 K’s in 34 2/3 innings for a K Rate of .63. A look at Snell’s game-logs paint a worse picture as outside of a 10 K performance against the free-swinging Marlins, Snell hasn’t topped 5 K’s in an outing. In fact he’s struck out 3 or less in 5 of his 7 starts. Add in the sharp increase in hits allowed and it looks like Snell is experiencing a significant loss in “stuff” early in the season. Snell’s likely decreased his value to the point where you’d have to move him for 50 cents on the dollar, so I’d sit tight for now and hope for an improvement. But at this point I wouldn’t have confidence to have Snell in my active lineup until he shows an improvement in the K Rate. Right now his most valuable asset has turned into his biggest weakness and the indicators don’t suggest an imminent turn-around.
Chris Snyder:
I’ve been waiting for a breakthrough from Chris Snyder and I think this is the week it’s going to happen. Snyder’s put together a mini-hot streak over the last 2 games as he’s gone 4-7 with 2 extra base hits, raising his early season line to .243/.375/.414. Snyder’s early season indicators have been on the rise with a jump in his BB Rate and an overall improvement in his EYE. The one thing that’s been lacking is Snyder’s power, which has been negatively impacted by an extreme 56% GB Rate. This is a reversal in trend as Snyder had been lowering his GB Rate over the last 3 years going from 52% to 45% to 40% from 2005-2007. Once Snyder starts hitting more Fly Balls the power is going to come and he’s going to challenge for 15-20 HR’s and 50-60 RBI’s. I still like Snyder as a breakout candidate this year and think he makes for a very nice #2 catching option in traditional leagues with a chance at breaking into the Top 10 catchers this year. This week the Diamondbacks have the 2nd most favorable hitting schedule in all of baseball and I think this is the week Snyder busts out.
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