Randy Wolf:
The Randy Wolf roller-coaster continues! After posting a 6.85 ERA through his first four May starts, Wolf was terrific last night against the Reds. He surrendered a 2 run first inning HR to Ken Griffey Jr and then was flawless for the next 6 innings. He finished allowing just those 2 ER’s on 4 hits and 1 BB, while striking out 9. It’s becoming pretty apparent early in the season that Wolf is an option to use when pitching at home and pretty much avoid everywhere else (unless pitching in big ballparks against weak offenses, hello San Francisco!). Wolf has posted a 3.00 ERA in 4 home starts with a K/I of 1.08. In his 6 road starts he’s posted a 5.97 ERA with a K/I of 0.81. Keep spot starting him at home until his eventual arm injury and you should get some decent cheap production out of Wolf.
Tim Hudson:
After an alarming 3 game stretch to close out April, Hudson has gotten back to his usual ways in May. Last night the Mets were the victim as Hudson tossed 8 efficient innings against the Mets, limiting them to 2 ER’s on just 7 hits, while striking out 4. He needed just 100 pitches to get through the first 8 innings and improved his May record to 4-1 with a 2.25 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. I’ve mentioned in the past Hudson is the type of guy that I feel gets over-valued a lot early in the season because he’s a 3 category pitcher who offers elite potential in just 2 categories (Wins and ERA), however early on this year Hudson’s offering elite production in the 3rd category, posting a 1.05 WHIP through his first 11 starts. Unfortunately the WHIP isn’t really sustainable. Hudson’s benefiting from a BHIP% below .250 when his career average sits consistently in the .280’s and. 290’s range. All of his other indicators are perfectly in line with last year’s production so I’d imagine we’ll see more of the same from Hudson going forward with a slight regression in ERA (pulling him closer to the 3.40 range than the sub 3) and a regression in the WHIP department where he’ll likely move closer to 1.25. Now’s a nice time to sell high on Hudson if you can get back a proven fantasy ace, who offers more production in the K Department. Of course if you don’t need help in K’s then holding onto Hudson makes the most sense as any regression he experiences should be rather mild.
Johan Santana:
Another odd start to the season for Santana as his 5-3 record with a 3.36 ERA and 1.18 WHIP are actually better than some of his recent starts, but his K Rates are slipping a bit. On Thursday night Santana scattered 12 hits, 11 of which were singles, (a number of bloops and bleeders contributed to the high tally) and allowed 3 ER’s over his 7 innings, but he only struck out 1. Santana’s K Rate has dipped to .87 after 6 consecutive seasons over 1.00. It’s still early and a relatively small sample (just 30% of his likely season IP total), but this is something to be concerned about as it was wildly assumed the switch to the easier league would elevate Santana’s numbers but they seem to have plateau-ed a bit. Throughout his career Santana has gotten stronger as the season goes on so right now it’s a concern, but a minor one.
Kelly Johnson:
I’ve seen a lot of negative sentiment regarding Kelly Johnson floating around some other major fantasy providers and I’m not sure I really get it. His ownership is down to 85% despite hitting .299/.361/.503, scoring 24 times, and driving in 21 runs in 40 games with 5 HR’s and 4 SB’s. He’s doing pretty much exactly what we’d expect posting a .69 FPI compared to his projected .69 FPI (ok so that IS exactly what we’d expect!). He’s on pace for a 95-20-100-15 season while batting nearly .300 and his indicators show good improvement as well with increased power and a decreased K Rate. As I mentioned earlier this month, if Johnson’s available and you’re weak at 2B Johnson’s your cure. I just added him in a few leagues myself where I had the struggling Aaron Hill locked in at 2B.
Clayton Kershaw:
Is this the time? Clayton Kershaw was pulled from his Thursday start after just 1 inning of work (striking out two) and speculation immediately became rampant that the Dodgers might have stopped the start so Kershaw could be promoted to start on Saturday, pushing Brad Penny back one day and giving the Dodgers the 5th starter they’ll need to the All Star Break. Kershaw is the top pitching prospect in the game right now as a lefty with just silly numbers at the minor league level. He’s struck out 262 batters in 201 1/3 innings while walking 87 and allowing just 9 HR’s. The command might be a bit of an issue initially at the big league level but the impact Kershaw could have should be similar to that of Tim Lincecum last season. While Kershaw hasn’t had much experience above A ball, just 70 innings or so, he did have success retiring major league hitters this spring as he allowed just 1 ER (a HR to the first batter he faced) in 14 innings, striking out 19 and walking just 3. In a shallow keeper league with friendly keeper restrictions regarding players that qualify for rookie eligibility I actually traded future draft dollars early in the season for the #1 waiver position with Kershaw in mind, which should tell you how much I covet the youngster. Kershaw has a little bit of Liriano in him in that he has an absolutely devastating breaking pitch that already might be among the best in all of baseball, but instead of a slider, it’s his curveball. Kershaw’s an immediate add in all formats, in my opinion, and absolutely worthy of #1 waiver priority in all formats. Jay Bruce is the only other prospect in my mind that will make as big of an impact as Kershaw can and I still like Kershaw more than Bruce for this season. Stop reading the rest of the blurbs and go get him right now!
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