I’m going to skip the lead in this morning to our beloved Wednesday Value Picks column because quite frankly I’m in a state of euphoria right now and any small semblance of creativity my mind has is currently drifting towards visions of Derrick Rose in a brand new Bulls uniform. (Note to Bulls management: Please take Rose, elite PG's are the new wave) So let’s get right to the names and the reasoning behind them this morning! You know the drill; we’re looking for players that are owned in less than 10% of leagues, the ideal candidates being ones that can make contributions in all formats.
Catcher: Chris Iannetta
Iannetta’s owned in just 4% of ESPN leagues despite being an offensive minded catcher in a terrific home ball-park. On top of all that, he’s posted a career minor-league OPS of .915 and has posted a .910 OPS so far this season in his first 69 AB’s. So what’s the problem? Well, Iannetta’s not guaranteed playing time right now as he’s in a time-share with Yorvit Torrealba, only getting about 3 starts a week. Secondly, fantasy owners tend to shy away from those that burned them and Iannetta’s 2007 in which he was drafted as a rookie breakout catching option and then promptly hit .218/.330/.350 in just under 200 AB’s, prompting the famous Ben Petrick comparisons. From a statistical perspective Iannetta has a lot to offer. He’s posting a nice BB Rate (over 9%) along with strong Fly Ball tendencies (58%) and good raw power (Extra Base Hit Rate of 15.9%). The big negative, statistically speaking, for Iannetta is the K Rate, as he’s striking out in over 25% of his AB’s right now. The high K Rate means he’ll be prone to extended slumps and he’ll be a bit of a batting average risk, but there is tons of upside in his power potential and the limited playing time will actually help cushion the impact of any batting average risk he presents.
First Base: Lyle Overbay
Overbay’s owned in just 1.8% of ESPN leagues and he’s just 1.5 years removed from a .312-82-22-92 with a .880 OPS. After an injury plagued 2007, he’s back to his walking ways, posting an OBP above .370 but the power and the batting average have been underwhelming for the season. The good news is things are starting to come along of late as Overbay’s hitting over .280 in May with an extra base hit rate of 10.5% (in line with his 10.8% of 2006). The Jays lineup is abysmal right now so Run and RBI opportunities will be limited for Overbay, but he’s been a good average contributor throughout his career and offers 20 HR, 85 RBI potential making for a solid CI, U option in deeper leagues.
Second Base: Mark Grudzielanek
Grudzielanek isn’t sexy but he always offers solid contributions in batting average, hitting above .294 in each of the last 6 seasons, eclipsing .300 in 4 of them. He usually approaches 80+ Runs as he’s fixture in the 2 hole wherever he’s been, but the rest of the production is consistently meager. Grudzielanek won’t offer much in the way of HR’s, SB’s, or RBI’s, but he makes for a nice compliment in deep leagues to low batting average power guys as a useful MI option who can rack up base hits.
Shortstop: Jack Wilson
Wilson is largely un-owned in most formats because he’s spent much of the season on the DL, but he’s scheduled to return later this week and becomes an instant SS/MI option in deep formats. Wilson’s never been a tremendous offensive player but last season he made some serious strides in his power rates last season, increasing his 2B, 3B, and HR rates. The increased power came with some significant improvement in his FB Rate, eclipsing 60% for the first time in his career. Nearly all of the improvements came in the 2nd half when he hit an insane .356/.405/.567 in 180 AB’s. While there’s zero chance Wilson hits for that kind of clip upon his return the improvements last year suggest he could be a 10-15 HR candidate out of the MI position, making him a viable deep league play.
Third Base: Chase Headley
Headley isn’t on a major league roster right now, but it doesn’t appear it will be too long before he is as Padres GM Kevin Towers has hinted at some major changes coming soon. Headley’s the Padres top prospect an on-base machine in a similar mold to Evan Longoria. He has MLB ready power and plate patience but struggles with high K Rates which may negatively impact his batting average potential in the short run. He’s hitting .289/.355/.494 at the AAA level right now, but has been coming on of late hitting 4 HR’s in the last week. In deep formats, he’s certainly worth a flier right now and is likely owned in some leagues already. In more shallow leagues it’s worth waiting and he’s not someone I would use waiver priority on, but he will hit enough to offer value in all formats.
Outfield: David DeJesus
Often times when we’re digging deep we’re looking for category specialists and that will often lead us towards the SB Artists, Batting Average contributors, or the Power Hitters who don’t hit for average, but very rarely does it lead us towards Runs and RBI’s. But that’s exactly what you’ll get out of David DeJesus, who is a run-producing specialist. For his career, DeJesus has averaged 97 runs/162 games and last year eclipsed 100 for the first time in his career. In 2008, DeJesus is showing improvements in his EYE, his HR Rate, and his FB Rate. The one piece that hasn’t come yet are the 2B’s as he’s hit just 2 all season in 112 AB’s. Once the 2B’s start coming, the batting average will jump significantly. His .260 BHIP% is in line with his career rates, but his .281 BABIP is about 20-30 points below league average. With more Fly Balls and more power being displayed in his HR Rate, you’d think the 2B’s will start coming and DeJesus will get back to the .280-.290 hitter with a .350-.360 OBP instead of the .260 hitter with a .330 OBP he’s displaying currently. Once on base more the runs will start coming in droves. DeJesus is also a bit of a slow-starter for his career, posting just a .697 OPS through the first 2 months of the season in his career, compared to a career .770 career OPS. Now is a nice time to get in low on DeJesus who should be owned in all formats deeper than 15 teams.
Two-Start Pitcher: Jesse Litsch
It looks like Joe once again hit the nail on the head with his recommendation of Manny Parra, who went 5 2/3 scoreless innings last night in his win, so let’s see what kind of magic we can work for next week. Since we’ve lowered the bar to under 10%, one of my favorite two-start starters for next week: Andy Sonnanstine and his 22% ownership rate will not be featured (I do like him quite a bit, so if he’s available feel free to grab him), instead we’ll focus on Jesse Litsch of the Jays. Litsch gets two starts on the road in Oakland and Anaheim. Each park is a bit pitcher friendly (ANA-96, OAK 92 in ballpark factors) and each offense is scuffling a bit of late. The Angels have scored 4 runs or less in 12 of their 18 games in May, while the A’s have scored 4 or less runs in 13 of their last 18 games. Litsch limits his walks and has some good ground ball tendencies that allow him to take advantage of a pretty good infield defense behind him. He’s also shown an improving K Rate this year that should allow him to notch 6-9 K’s in the two starts combined, I like Litsch as a solid two start option next week in what I expect to be a couple low-scoring games.
There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning. Members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here. Not a member? Join today.
