Big variances between a pitcher’s ERA and XERA can help identify buy low and sell high targets. A low XERA and a high ERA usually means good skills but some bad luck in the form of low strand rate and/or an inflated BHIP%, while a high XERA and low ERA usually means the opposite. Here are some of the pitchers experiencing big variances between their ERA and XERA.
Livian Hernadez: (3.83 ERA, 5.20 XERA): If you have rostered him, feel fortunate with the numbers that he has given you; 5-1 record, and then cut bait. The good ERA and 5 wins are more due to a 78% strand rate than his 3.5 K/9.
Vincente Padilla: (3.02 ERA, 4.48 XERA): Padilla’s 5-2 record and 3.02 ERA have benefited from an 83% strand rate. The rest of his profile; 5.9 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 42% suggest a mediocre pitcher. Pitching his home games in hitter friendly Ameriquest Field will only make his problems worse when his strand rate normalizes.
Kason Gabbard: 1.85 ERA, 3.78 XERA): Gabbard’s off the charts GB% of 67% won’t last, 2006/2007 GB%’s of 58%/55%, and the rest of his profile is not encouraging, 3.3 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9. Things can get really ugly here.
Justin Verlander: (6.43 ERA, 4.85 XERA): Verlander’s 4.85 XERA says it is not as bad as his 1-6 record and 6.43 ERA shows, but the increase in walks, 2007/2008 BB/9’s of 3.0/3.9, combined with the decrease in strike outs, 8.2/5.5, is troubling. However given his performance over last couple of seasons; 2006 record of 17-9 and 3.63 ERA and 2007 record of 18-6 and 3.66 ERA, he makes a good buy low candidate.
Esteban Loaiza: (5.63 ERA, 3.95 XERA): Before going on the DL, Loaiza was bounced between the rotation and bullpen. His XERA says he hasn’t been as bad as the 5.63 ERA, but his skills, 2006/2007/2008 K/9’s of 5.8/4.8/3.6 and GB%’s of 42%/21%/37%, are not ones that you want to own.
Ross Ohlendorf: (4.70 ERA, 3.67 XERA): Despite his high ERA, Ohlendorf has some very good skills, 8.6 K/9 and a 50%. His walks are a bit high, 3.5 BB/9, but he has shown better control in the minors. What is really hurting him is a 65% Strand rate and a .324 BHIP%.
Jon Lieber: (3.80 ERA, 6.59 XERA): On the surface it looks like Lieber is doing a good job out of the Cubs pen and he still has pinpoint control, 0.8 BB/9. However, his low 4.6 K/9 and 6 home runs allowed in 21.1 innings shows that he has been quite hittable. An 88% strand rate is keeping his ERA lower than it should be.
Zach Miner: (9.33 ERA, 5.96 XERA): Miner has both been bad, 6.6 BB/9, and unlucky, 47% strand rate and a .323 BHIP%, which is obviously not a good combination.
Kip Wells: (2.29 ERA, 4.03 XERA): Pitching out of the Rockies bullpen, Wells is showing a nice ground ball/strike out package, 7.3 K/9 and a 58% GB%, however his low ERA will not last long with his poor control, 6.4 BB/9, especially when his high strand rate of 89% and low .259 BHIP begin to normalize.
Kyle Farnworth: (3.18 ERA, 5.18 XERA): Don’t read too much into Farnworth’s high XERA and 89% strand rate. His skills are quite impressive, 9.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and a 45% GB%.
Brad Lidge: (0.00 ERA, 4.18 XERA): Lidge has been perfect this year, 9 for 9 in saves and he has yet to allow an earned run. A closer’s strand rate has more to do with skill than any other pitcher, as most of the time they are the one’s finishing games. Of course he is going to blow some saves, but his skill set, 9.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and a 50% GB%, is perfectly suited to be closing games in tiny Citizens Bank Park.
Damaso Marte: (5.40 ERA, 2.74 XERA): Marte has outstanding skills, 10.8 K/9 and a 2.5 BB/9. His low XERA and 50% strand rate say that better days are coming soon.
Guillermo Mota: (2.25 ERA, 3.59 XERA): Mota is in line for saves with Eric Gagne out as the closer, but the Brewers will learn quickly that he is not the answer. His XERA tells the real story, his high 6.2 BB/9 will lead to big trouble
See the pitchers with a Higher than expected ERA in the member section under Today's Daily News Archive.
