Milton Bradley:
You know who Milton Bradley is? He’s the hot chick with the crazy eyes, I’m convinced. I mean think about it, let’s draw some parallels between scoping out the waiver wire and scoping out the bar. So you’re looking through the waiver wire and all of the sudden you see this guy hitting in the middle of a Texas lineup (Texas lineup = little black dress) and hitting a ton (hitting a ton = filling out said dress nicely), and he’s got pretty good career averages per 162 games (.274/.360/.441 with 19 HR’s, 15 SB’s, 85 Runs, 76 RBI’s). But then you dig a little deeper (get a little closer) and you see an average of just 80 games a year (the crazy eyes) and you stop for a second but then that damn black dress pulls you right back in. Next thing you know you’re in a relationship and things are going pretty well. In fact things are going REALLY well to the tune of .301/.407/.487 (I’m not going to draw a parallel here, seriously… the black dress was as far as I was going to go) and by this point you’re so fascinated with all the good things that have happened that you’re starting to lower the guard a bit. You’ve convinced yourself that the crazy eyes were just a thing of the past and she’s changed for you. Your buddies have stopped trying to warn you because they figure you’re in too deep… and well… you are. And this is where we are if you’re a Milton Bradley owner. Every morning you wake up and Milton Bradley isn’t injured (hasn’t slashed your tires) you should feel lucky, because you’re rolling those dice every single day. It’s going to be great for as long as it lasts but it usually doesn’t last long so for now sit back and enjoy the ride because in the end thankfully this is just fantasy and you can always use a DL slot or just drop Bradley if those crazy eyes pop up again. If only there was a DL slot for dating…
Daisuke Matsuzaka:
As Schuyler alluded to earlier in the week, Dice-K was able to take advantage of the favorable May schedule in his second turn of the month picking up his 2nd win with 7 strong innings against the Twins. With the win Dice-K now sits at 6-0 with a tidy 2.45 ERA. Despite the early season success and likely continued success through the end of the month, I’d consider throwing out feelers for Dice-K now. In fact one of my favorite trade techniques is throwing out feelers to your league right before an extremely favorable schedule. It has a nice additive effect if the player can take advantage of the schedule because the player is in the forefront of your opponents’ minds now that they know he’s available and allows for the stock to rise a bit further. I digress, here’s why I’d consider putting out feelers on Dice-K, all of his peripherals are trending downwards. Matsuzaka has an increased BB Rate in the early going paired with a dropping K Rate and some favorable luck (Strand Rate = .83, BHIP% = .179, HR/FB = 7.5%). He’s pitching worse than he did last year and being held up by some good luck. Even so, he should be able to take advantage of the upcoming schedule (struggling MIL, KC), but lookout because the regression is coming at some point. Now is the perfect time to start talking trade with Dice-K and trying to sell high.
Francisco Liriano:
We haven’t talked too much about Liriano since the demotion but things down on the farm haven’t been going significantly smoother. In 4 minor league starts Liriano has walked 14 and struck out 15 in 19 1/3 innings. The control continues to be a problem for Liriano as he struggles to find consistency with his new mechanics. Despite the continued struggles his start last night was a small step in the right direction. Liriano got through 6 innings, walking just 2 and striking out 5 while allowing 2 ER’s on 5 hits. The improved command allowed him to get past 5 innings for the first time since being sent down and hopefully this is a step in the right direction. As the Twins have reminded us though, this isn’t going to be a quick process. Liriano isn’t likely to be back anytime within the next month and if you’re rostering Liriano you’re really hoping for contributions in the 2nd half. While it’s hard for us to let go of the upside of Liriano, it’s also easy to forget he’s learning to throw from a completely different arm angle. There is no guarantee Liriano’s electric stuff that came from his previous arm angle will translate to the new mechanics and for that reason I’ve soured a bit on Liriano’s ceiling for this season. I still believe he can make an impact in the 2nd half, but I think the dream scenario of him returning to his 2006 form is just that: a dream.
Evan Longoria:
As with most young players, Longoria’s first month in the big leagues has had its share of ups and downs. On Friday night Longoria hit his first major league walkoff HR ending an 8.5 inning scoreless drought in Tampa and giving the Rays an opening series win. On Saturday Longoria took another 0-fer with 2 more strikeouts. As Tom noted last week, Longoria’s BB Rate and power numbers are very impressive in the early going as is the High FB Rate (over 60%), but Longoria’s High K Rates are going to limit the batting average upside. I mentioned before the season that I thought Longoria’s ceiling was similar to that of more stable veterans like Ty Wigginton and Hank Blalock (unfortunately they’re both injured now) and I still feel similarly that Longoria’s hype outweighs his ceiling in terms of production. Longoria’s K Rate has been increasing into May (31%) and his BB Rate has been dropping as well. He’s going to hit some adjustment periods as most youngsters do and while the overall production will be there (think .260-25-90) it’s going to be inconsistent.
Derek Jeter:
Jeter knocked out his first HR of the season on Saturday in a 2-5 effort that raised his average to .308. Hitting above .300 is nothing new for Cap’n Jetes as he’s hit above .300 in 9 of his 12 full seasons, unfortunately the batting average is about the only thing for Cap’n Jetes that is the same. It’s one thing to see Jeter’s power numbers down early in the season as this would be expected of a 33 year old past his power prime, but Jeter’s stopped walking (3.6%) all of the sudden and his EYE (.36) is evaporating. Jeter’s also slowed down on the basepaths, having attempted just 1 SB on the year so far and being caught. While Jeter continues to be a strong batting average contributor and Run scorer at the SS position, his overall value appears to finally be heading towards a decline. The early returns on this season suggest the decline may be steeper than we were all ready for as Jeter’s producing just a .738 OPS. If you can move Jeter based on name value right now, I’d consider acting quickly. Maybe an attempt at tricking a Furcal owner into thinking they’re selling high?
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