Prospect Central - April 13, 2008

Jay Bruce OF Cincinnati Reds

Jay Bruce may be the best offensive prospect in baseball right now. He combines tremendous physical skills, and very good baseball instincts, with a strong work ethic to produce the total prospect package … contact ability, power, and even some speed if he decides to take advantage of it.

Last year after 268 productive ABs at A+ in which he hit .325 with 11 HRs, 43 XBH, a .380 OBP, and .966 OPS, Jay was ripping up AA (.333, 4 HRs, .405/.1.057 in 66) when the Reds got curious and threw him at AAA as an injury fill in. Jay did not miss a beat as a 20 year old in AAA hitting .305 in 187 ABs, with 11 HRs, 25 XBH, a .356 OBP and a .923 OPS.

Bruce’s strike zone command was equally undaunted by his precociousness. Jay fanned 25.0% of the time in his 268 A+ ABs and he fanned 25.7% of the time in his 187 AAA ABs with BB rates of 8.2% and 7.4% respectively.

You would like to see improvements in both rates but remember we are talking about a 20 year old.  Of slightly more concern is his .400 BHIP% in A+ and his .359 BHIP% in AAA. Those soften his averages a bit especially considering Jay’s K rates … but remember … we are talking about a 20 year old here.

Jay would hit 20+ HRs today in the majors with 400+ ABs, he would drive in 80, and he might even steal you 15 bases (although his ML numbers do not hint at that). Jay’s battle will be whether he can up his contact rate and keep his AVG. in the majors high enough to justify an RBI slot in the lineup. If he does, we are talking a low-end fantasy stud here, possibly a 30 HR hitter who drives in 100 and steals you double figures fairly consistently.

There is every reason to believe Jay can up his K rate. He reasons well at the plate, shows adjustment skills, and simply does not stop working. Jay is handling sophisticated pitch sequences and adjusting to the way staffs work him … and we are talking about a 20 year old here.

The problem here is opportunity. The Reds outfield is full and Bruce doesn’t even have to be placed on the 40-man until 2009. It would be the biggest upset if (barring injuries in the Reds OF … I’m looking at you KGJ!) he remains in the minors until September. He is worth a roster slot in all but the shallowest keeper leagues but keep in mind you will probably not realize full dividends until next year. 

Long Term Fantasy Grade – A

Seas Lvl  AB XBH  HR  SB   AVG   BB%     K%   SLG   OPS

2006 A   444  63  16  19  .291  9.0%  23.9%  .516  .870

2007 A+  268  43  11   4  .325  8.2%  25.0%  .586  .966

2007 AA   66  12   4   2  .333 10.8%  30.3%  .652 1.057

2007 AAA 187  25  11   2  .305  7.4%  25.7%  .567  .923

2008 AAA   37   4   2   2  .324 2.6%  27.0%  .568  .910

Greg Smith SP Oakland A’s

Greg Smith gave up 3 runs to the Blue Jays over 6 IP on Wednesday in his MLB debut for the A’s.  All three runs came in a shaky first inning, and he settled down from there allowing a hit and three walks in his last 5 frames. Injuries opened a slot for Smith who came over from the D-Backs in this winters Dan Haren trade.

After a strong spring (2 runs in 13 IP on just 9 hits) Smith was recalled as part of the A’s solution for holes created by injuries to Rich Harden and Justin Duchscherer.

Greg throws a fastball, cutter, curve, and change and throws them all with command. He is adept at adding and subtracting velocity to keep hitters off his less than overpowering stuff.

Last year he suffered the effects of a long campaign in 2006, which saw him pitch for the USA National team and in the AFL. He pretty much split time between AA (5-3, 3.36, 1.12 in 12 starts) and AAA (4-2, 3.78, 1.51 in 10 starts). His indicators took a hit in the transition to AAA. Greg’s K rate dropped from 8.0/9 to 5.8/9. His BB rate rose from 1.8/9 to 3.1/9 and his OBA rose to .292 from .246.

Speed and location pitchers need to limit their walks, keep the ball in the ballpark and throw groundballs. Greg is not a groundball thrower, but he does keep the ball in the ballpark. His walk rate has been borderline so far and his low projected K rate will require better command. His inability to consistently get a punch out in key situations will also require more groundballs than he is shown he can produce.

Greg is an MLB pitcher but it remains to be seen if he can be an effective back-of-the rotation starter. If not, he will end up in middle relief limbo.

There is nothing particularly compelling here

Long Term Fantasy Grade – C

 

Seas Lvl   W  L   ERA    IP  K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG  WHIP

2006 A+    9  0  1.63  88.1  7.2  3.2  0.3  .186  1.00

2006 AA    5  4  3.90  60.0  5.7  3.5  0.6  .278  1.47

2007 AA    5  3  3.36  69.2  8.0  1.8  0.9  .246  1.12

2007 AAA   4  2  3.78  52.1  5.9  3.1  0.7  .292  1.51

2008 AAA   0  1  3.00   6.0  6.0  1.5  0.0  .262  1.17

2008 MLB   0  0  3.00   6.0  7.5  7.5  0.0  .106  1.17

 

Jed Lowrie – SS Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox purchased Jed Lowrie’s contract from AAA in the wake of the thumb injury to Mike Lowell. This is not the tour where Jed will be a significant fantasy factor but the Stanford product, who was named the Red Sox Minor League Offensive Player of the Year last year, bears watching.

After hitting .170 in April last year in Portland, Jed finished his AA tour hitting .297 in 337 ABs with 8 HRs, 45 XBH, a .410 OBP, a .501 SLG%, and a .912 OPS. He also showed exceptional zone command with a tidy 17.2% K rate against an impressive 16.2% BB rate.

Jed finished the season in AAA where he hit .300 in 160 ABs, posted another .500+ SLG% (.506) and an .855 OPS. The problem at AAA was that while his K rate jumped a bit to 20.6%, his BB rate plummeted to 7.0%. I am not concerned. Jed has shown a history of needing some time to adjust to a new level and in a scant 25 AAA ABs this year Jed has drawn 7 walks for a 21.9% walk rate.

Jed might be one of those players who is a better MLB player than a fantasy player. He is a dirt dawg and the type of player who always seems to find something to contribute in a ball game.

From a fantasy standpoint, Jed will not hit for a significantly high average. He will show some pop for a middle infielder, but not so much to get you overly excited. He has no speed to speak of and he is not the type of hitter that would place him in a productive lineup slot. The best-case scenario for Jed is probably a role as a #2 hitter, which may make him a run producer if his career is in the Red Sox lineup.

There is some doubt about that because Jed may not be able to stick in the majors as a SS. Second base is locked down for a while in Boston and the Red Sox will work Jed out at 3B but he does not have enough power to be a fantasy factor at that position. It looks like Lowrie will be traded at some point and find an MLB home somewhere at second base.

I love this kid, but in a fantasy context, I am thinking Adam Kennedy, without the speed.

Long Term Fantasy Grade  - C+

Seas Lvl  AB XBH  HR  SB   AVG   BB%     K%   SLG   OPS

2006 A+  374  30   3   2  .262 12.6%  17.4%  .374  .729

2007 AA  337  46   8   5  .297 16.2%  17.2%  .501  .912

2007 AAA 160  22   5   0  .300  7.0%  20.6%  .506  .855

2008 AAA  25   2   0   0  .160 21.9%  32.0%  .280  .624