Mike Gonzalez: Gonzalez, who has been out since the middle of last season after undergoing elbow surgery, could be ready to rejoin the Braves’ pen by the first week of June. His K/9, 2005/2006 #’s of 10.4/10.7, is worthy of being a closer. However with his high walk totals, 2005/2006 BB/9’s of 5.6/5.2 and a move away from inducing ground balls, 2005/2006 GB%’s of 53%/36%, he will need every bit of the K’s to return to his previous level, 2005/2006 ERA’s of 2.70/2.17.
Kosuke Fukudome: In his first taste of major league action, Fukudome is on fire, 11 for 24 with a home run and 3 doubles. The 31 year-old, who missed the second half of last season with an elbow problem, displayed decent but not great power in Japan, 2005/2006 home run totals of 17/19, so it would be surprising to see him crack the 20 home run barrier. His moderate power and good approach at the plate, 2006 Ct% of 85% and 10% BB%, should allow him to hit for a good average.
Wes Helms: Helms rejoins the Marlins where he had a productive run in 2006, 10/47.336 in 240 AB. His approach at the plate, 2006/2007 BB/K’s of .38/.31 and Ct%’s of 77%/78%, combined with an high .295 BHIP%, meant that he was due for a batting average drop off in 2007, he went down to .246. What was surprising was the drop in power, 5 home runs in 280 AB, despite moving to the Phillies who play their home games in tiny Citizens Bank Field. His 2007 power performance is more in line with his recent output, 4 home runs in 278 AB in 2004 and 4 home runs in 168 AB in 2005m si maybe that is his true level. Playing time in Florida should be limited to an occasional start against left-handers. Don’t expect him to return to the level of 2006.
Carlos Marmol: Marmol picked up a save on Sunday because manager Lou Piniella didn’t want to use Kerry Wood 3 days in a row. Marmol certainly has the skills to close, 2007 K/9 of 12.5, but Piniella does not want to use Wood for more than one inning per outing. It would be take a disastrous performance from Wood, who has looked good so far, 3 saves and 4 K’s in 4 innings, or for Wood to get hurt, which is much more likely, for Marmol to step into the full-time closing role.
Josh Bard: Michael Barrett said that he felt a pop in his elbow, which means he could be out for a while. The Padres called up Colt Morton who will not see much playing time, which translates into plenty of playing time for Bard. Bard has a good approach at the plate, 11% BB% and an 85% Ct%, so he should help a fantasy team in the batting average department. However the high amount of ground balls that hits, 52% GB% in both 2006 and 2007, means his power output is more likely to be in the 2007 range, 5 home runs in 389 AB, than 2006, 9 home runs in 249 AB.
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