Oliver Perez - A great start for Oliver Perez. He was one of my key "watch" guys in this year's drafts of having the potential to post a big season. Granted, last night's game was against one of the weaker teams in the league, but Perez pitched a solid 6.0 shutout innings and gave up just 5 hits, struck out 8, and walked 1. While ERA and WHIP help is always nice from a #3 pitcher like Perez, his contribution comes in the form of W's and K's for 2008. In '07, his K/I was 0.98 and K/9 of 8.85 while earning 15 wins with a 3.56 ERA. While we forecast a flattening of wins and K's for the 26-year-old Perez, there is plenty of reason to believe he has the ability and the team support to blow away last year's numbers and become a big-time fantasy pitcher. I also think there are some non-quantifiable benefits of having the best lefty pitcher in the game mentoring Perez within the same rotation (Johan Santana).
Geovany Soto - I was fortunate enough to be in the front row of yesterday's Brewers @ Cubs game at Wrigley Field and caught some up-close glimpses of some of the guys I have been tracking this fantasy season. One guy was Geovany Soto, who ended the day 1-for-4 with a solo homerun. The dinger was a nice sign, as he been fooled by Brewers' pitcher Jeff Suppan on multiple occasions throughout the day with the change-up. I think our Fantistics projections for Soto are a fair interpretation of Soto's first big-league season (432 AB, .273 average, 67 R, 17 HR, 56 RBI). With erratic winds in Wrigley and a fairly strong lineup from top-to-bottom, I wouldn't be shocked to see Soto end 2008 with 20 HR, some more RBIs, and a dip in average. For now, he's replacing Jarrod Saltalamacchia on my roster for at least the month of April.
A steady power contribution from Lance Berkman for an ENTIRE season would be a nice change from Berkman's 2007 season. As you may recall, Berkman's 1st half was a huge disappointment compared to his 2nd half last year. Let's break down the split pre and post all-star break. In the first half, Berkman's FPI was 0.66, HR/AB of 20.0, and OPS of .834. He then stepped it up and posted an FPI of 0.79, HR/AB of 0.79, and OPS of .957. Yesterday's HR gets Berkman off to a nice start and hopefully leads to minimal deviation week-to-week from what we expect from him in 2008: 35 HR, 103 RBI, 95 R, .287 avg, FPI of 0.75.
Derrek Lee hit the ball hard multiple times in yesterday's game, including a long dinger high into the swirling winds at the north side of Chicago. Lee, an 3rd-4th round average draftee in this year's fantasy drafts, is a big question mark in terms of potential power. Leading up to his flukish wrist injury in 2006, Lee had three consecutive seasons of 30+ homeruns including his great 2005 year when he hit 46. Last year, there were concerns that Lee's full strength hadn't return to his wrist, leading to a drop-off in power to 22 HR. While projections conservatively forecast a power rate of a homerun for every 20.5 AB for Lee in 2008 (about 29 HR), his potential to return to the 30+ HR days is solid. From what I saw yesterday, he seems to be close to returning to his old form.
Tim Redding - Break up the Nats. A friend and fellow-Fantistics subscriber described Washington as "First in War, First in Peace, First in the NL East!" Tim Redding helped the Nats get to 3-0 with a stellar pitching performance against the Philadelphia Phillies. With the help of a solo homerun by Ryan Zimmerman, Redding hurled 7.0 IP, gave up just 1 hit, recorded 2 K's, and walked 3. It took him 93 pitches (54 strikes) to record the 21 outs and earn his first W of the season. While this was definitely a great outing for Redding, don't place too much value in one start. Redding is good for a 4.50+ ERA, 1.40+ WHIP, about 100 K's, and maybe he scratches the double-digit win mark to end the season. If the predictions that the new Nationals Park will favor hitters are true, that will also hurt Redding's fantasy value. NL-only for now.
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