Jeff Keppinger
For those that haven’t noticed, Jeff Keppinger is for real. Keppinger put together a nice 2nd half last year as a utility player for the Reds hitting .332/.400/.477 in 276 PA’s. In that time Keppinger, showed an elite EYE lead by tremendous contact skills (96.3%). A look at Keppinger’s minor league track record shows more of the same with just 137 K’s in over 2100 AB’s. Keppinger’s incredible contact rate and strong plate discipline makes him a near lock to hit .300, and the benefits of playing in a tremendous offensive park with a good lineup behind him make him a great bet for run production as long as he stays in the lineup. My one concern is Dusty Baker’s affinity for slick fielding SS’s, which injured Alex Gonzalez certainly is, but if the Reds continue to score runs and Keppinger continues to play a big part in it, I think that situation may resolve itself as well. As a bonus Keppinger offers versatility for fantasy owners, with eligibility at SS and 3B. If you’re weak at SS, and especially in a league that penalizes Strikeouts, Keppinger is an excellent waiver wire addition.
Austin Kearns
I think Kearns is one of the more overlooked potential breakout candidates in MLB this season. Kearns EYE has steadily increased each of the last three seasons, mostly through a dramatically increased contact rate. Unfortunately the increased plate discipline has been accompanied by a sever drop in his power rates. Digging a bit deeper, you’ll notice that much of the loss in power is directly attributed to RFK Stadium, the Nats old ballpark where Kearns hit an abysmal .228/.330/.365 compared to a nice .301/.378/.454 line on the road. With the change in home venue this year, I think Kearns could be in for a nice rebound season, somewhere along the lines of .280-85-25-95.
Rick Ankiel
Ankiel knocked out his 3rd HR of the season on Sunday in a 2-4 effort. As Schuyler mentioned yesterday Ankiel isn’t likely to give a ton of production outside of the power categories because of his weak plate discipline and poor supporting cast around him. Nothing has changed early on in the season with Ankiel as his K Rate in 20 AB’s is in line with last year’s efforts. In fact the only real difference is almost every ball Ankiel gets in the air has been leaving the yard. Obviously the small samples are playing a role in this, but his current 53% HR/FB Rate is clearly unsustainable. Ankiel offers a good chance at eclipsing 30 HR’s this season and could challenge for 80 Runs and 80 RBI’s but his career .265 minor league average suggests some serious batting average risk will come along with it.
Carlos Zambrano
Zambrano tossed another gem on Sunday afternoon, limiting the Astros to 2 runs over 7 innings of work while striking out 7 and walking 0. The walks are the most impressive part of Zambrano’s early season performance as he’s surrendered just 1 walk in his first 13 2/3 innings, while striking out 12. Zambrano’s incredible workload combined with his increasing BB Rate and FB Rate has had fantasy analysts predicting a meltdown for some time, but Big Z keeps fending them off. The increased control early in the season has been notable as Zambrano looks to have cleaned up his delivery and regained command of his 2-seam fastball. If Zambrano can continue to command the strike zone, he could be in for the Cy Young season he predicted last year. Much like Rafael Furcal, Zambrano’s fast start makes me a believer that he’s someone to try to steal off of other owners looking to sell high.
Chris R. Young
Fantasy owners are bound to be happy when they see Chris Young’s solid start in the boxscores tomorrow morning. Young surrendered just 2 runs and 8 base-runners in his 7 innings of work while striking out 8. Young now has 11 K’s in his 12 2/3 innings of work with a tidy 2.13 ERA, despite a not-so tidy 1.42 WHIP. Beyond the large discrepancy in Young’s early season WHIP and his ERA, I have some further concerns about Young’s early season performance. Young threw 118 pitches yesterday, after a Tuesday start in which he was allowed to throw 115 pitches. Young only topped the 115 pitch mark twice all of last season and that kind of abuse early in the season concerns me. The two times Young crossed the 115 pitch mark last season, resulted in him leaving the game early within one of his following two starts. This may be coincidence but Young’s durability has always been a concern and this early season abuse combined with some of the beneficial luck Young had with HR’s and FB’s last season (which Tom mentioned earlier this week) makes me a bit weary of Young going forward.
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