Johnny Cueto:
After allowing 5 ER’s for the 2nd time in his last 3 starts plenty of fantasy owners are going to begin to worry about Johnny Cueto hitting an adjustment period. Statistically speaking, Cueto IS hitting an adjustment period as his K Rate has dropped in each of his 5 starts and he’s shown some chinks in the control armor (walking 2 in each of his last 2 starts). While this might seem like a bad thing for Cueto, I actually think it’s a pretty good thing for his fantasy prospects going forward. As we always caution, there are going to be rough outings for younger pitchers, but if these are the types of performances that represent his adjustment period, it won’t be THAT difficult to swallow. Furthermore my biggest concern heading into the season regarding Cueto has been allayed as he’s managed his pitches extremely efficiently and Dusty Baker has shown restraint in pushing the young arm. Cueto hasn’t eclipsed the 100 pitch plateau yet this season despite throwing 6 or more innings in all of his starts. Finally, while Cueto “looks” to be struggling a bit lately, he’s actually been having some poor luck. His Strand Rate is in the 60’s, when typically starters with his K Rate touch the low 70’s. He’s suffering from a bit of poor luck with his HR/FB Rate which has crept into the high teens after yesterday’s outing. While I guarantee there will be some clunkers thrown into the mix this year for Cueto, I still think he’ll be a valuable starter in all formats and is someone I’d freely pursue if this recent string of starts knocked down his value at all. I value him similarly to a group of starters that include Oliver Perez, Chad Billingsley, and Rich Hill.
Brandon Phillips:
Am I a man who likes to boast? Is Brandon Phillips off to a horrible start? Did I hate on Brandon Phillips all spring? The answer to all these questions of course is a resounding Yes. As is the likely answer to “Will Brandon Phillips now go on a massive tear?” But regardless I feel the need to puff my chest a bit as Phillips is off to a really rough start this season and his 0-4 Thursday pushed his season line to .250/.298/.409. Despite Phillips slow start many of his indicators are in line with last year. His .30 EYE matches last year’s EYE and his power production in terms of extra base hit rate is in line with last year’s production as well. The big differences are some bad luck in his BHIP% as well as a re-distribution of his power which I suggested might take place in the spring. Instead of hitting HR’s many of Phillips long fly balls are turning into 2B’s this season. As I mentioned in the spring I believe he’s a 20-30 candidate and not a 30-30 candidate as last year’s HR production was aided by some good luck. As a result I think he’s been vastly overrated as an early round pick.
Chad Billingsley:
Billingsley’s been a hot topic of conversation early in the year as rumors have swirled about possible injuries and fantasy owners have been tantalized by his tremendous K potential. On Thursday night it was more of the same with Billingsley as he mowed down 12 DBack hitters over 6 innings yet yielded 5 ER’s on 6 hits and 2 BB’s. Billingsley is a difficult guy to wrap your head around and is a guy I’ve recommended in the past trying to sell “high” on meaning sell close to his full draft value. I’m still holding that recommendation despite the soaring K Rate, which is now up to an incredible 1.55. Billingsley’s only thrown 58% of his pitches for strikes this season and while he’s suffered from bad luck in terms of BHIP% (.386) and Strand Rate (0.68) I’m still not convinced he’s completely healthy. Billingsley isn’t someone I’d target in trades, but is someone I’d take a flier on if I had open reserve slots. There’s a boom or bust thing going on here with Billingsley’s climbing K Rate that suggests he’s either going to figure it all out or end up walking himself out of the rotation and possibly onto the DL at some point. I’d say the chances are 80-20 in favor of the latter, but if that 20% hits there could be a huge pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. In leagues where Billingsley has been dropped and I have extra roster room I’ve been stashing and hoping while he sits firmly on the bench. If you’re a Billingsley owner you should be doing the same unless you can get 80% of his draft day value back in a trade for a more reliable piece.
Tim Lincecum:
There really is a lot to like with Lincecum’s hot start to the season, which improved to 4-0 after throwing 6 shutout innings against the Padres. The first and most noticeable is Lincecum is somehow picking up wins despite the Giants anemic offense, if this will continue we can’t say, but he’s finding a way early on and is almost certain to eclipse last year’s win total of 7. But the more important improvements have come in Lincecum’s peripheral stats. He continues to improve upon last year’s dominating K Rate, now upping the rate to 1.23 after his 9 K’s in 6 innings last night. While it would be nice to see improvements in his BB Rate as well, holding at the .47 level is enough for Lincecum to continue to have success. Now with all that said, there is some bad news. First and foremost Lincecum is dealing with a Strand Rate above .90 right now, which is unheard of and shows that his current 1.23 ERA has very little chance of lasting. The 2nd and likely more unnoticed factor is that Timmy hasn’t had to pitch against any top tier offenses of yet, facing the Cardinals and Padres twice while facing the Dodgers once. It’s a small thing to worry about but it does suggest his increase in K Rate early in the season could be the beneficiary of some strong scheduling. I took the opportunity to sell a tad high on Lincecum last week dishing him off for Adrian Gonzalez, but I’d imagine his stock is even higher after moving his record to 4-0 last night. If you can get the value a Top 10 SP would usually command in return for Lincecum I would move on it quickly. Ultimately I think Lincecum makes improvements this year and gets himself into that Top 20 SP echelon, but I think he settles in year end with a mid-high 3’s ERA, 200 K’s, 13-15 wins, and WHIP in the high 1.2’s. That’s great production but he won’t finish among the Top 10 SP’s in baseball which is where he’s sitting now. I would be remiss if I didn’t note that the Giants let Lincecum throw 122 pitches last night. Lincecum only crossed the 115+ pitch threshold once last season and followed it up with a clunker, allowing 6 ER’s in 6 innings against the Pirates.
Chris R. Young:
Last night was a much improved outing for the tall Princeton grad as Young tossed 7 strong innings against the Giants limiting them to just 1 ER on 2 hits and 3 BB’s while striking out a season-best 10. Unfortunately for Young owners I’ll continue to be the pessimist as he was once again allowed to throw 121 pitches in those 6 innings. I’ve talked about it before but Young’s durability has been a question mark throughout his career having never topped 180 innings. Add in his rising BB rate (up to .63) and the early season push-back because of “elbow soreness” and I see enough red flags to draw some concern. I love Young’s talent and was heavily invested in him last year, but I’m not happy about the way the Padres are handling him early in the season and I’d be more comfortable dealing him for face value if I could at this point and attaching my allegiance to someone with slightly less health risk, names that would come to mind are guys like Yovani Gallardo or Adam Wainwright.
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