Wandy Rodriguez:
While we’re at it, let’s give a little hat tip to my man Joe Ribando for his recommendation of Wandy Rodriguez as a two start pickup this week. If you listened to Joe you ended up snagging a 1-0, 0.63 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, and 13 K’s in 14 1/3 innings. Pretty tasty numbers if you ask me and he should’ve been 2-0 if it weren’t for Jose Valverde’s blown save on Monday! Wandy continued his home dominance trend from last season mowing down Marlins on Sunday in a 5-1 victory. Rodriguez’s noted home/road splits (2.94 ERA vs. 6.37 ERA) from last season are already forming early in this season (0.63 ERA vs. 7.20 ERA). Obviously these are in small samples, but for the time being those wanting to invest in Wandy might want to continue to play the trends. Last year I went out on a limb saying I was “going all-in” on Wandy pitching him both at home and on the road as I didn’t see any way the splits could continue to hold up (pitching in a fairly neutral ball-park), but they did. This season I’m going to suggest the same thing and go a bit further to recommend Rodriguez having his breakout season. Rodriguez continues to show improvements in his K and BB Rates, with Sunday’s performance he’s now at 19:2 through his first 21 innings and if he can just limit the HR’s, he can really make some nice steps forward in ’08. I still believe the home/road splits have to be more mental than anything and I think this is the year Rodriguez finally breaks out and offers more than just spot-start value in mixed leagues. I don’t think he’ll take as big of a step forward as say James Shields from last season, but I could see a 4.00 ERA, 180 K’s and WHIP in the low to mid 1.20’s.
Jason Bay:
Bay’s 2007 season was such a quick and vast drop-off in production that it had fantasy owners and experts scratching their heads. Bay became so pull-conscious last season and seemed so anxious at the plate that he looked like a completely different player. A Drop in his BB Rate and all of his Power Rates suggested legitimate deterioration in his skill set. At 29, this seemed incredibly unlikely and as a result most pointed towards his nagging knee injury as the reason and most experts half-heartedly pointed to a bounce-back. Early on in 2008, Bay is proving 2007 to be the outlier. He’s already drawn 11 walks in his first 11 games and hit 4 extra base hits (including 3 HR’s) in his first 39 AB’s, suggesting Bay is indeed back.
John Bowker:
If you’re reading through the SF boxscores it’s probably not that unusual of an occurrence to go “who?”. In fact the Giants roster reminds me a bit too much of something out of the movie Major League. “This guy here is dead!” “Well CROSS HIM OFF THEN”. Well, this is what we’re here for and with that in mind let’s dissect the latest mystery Giant who’s probably caught your attention: John Bowker. Bowker was called up this weekend and promptly went 4-6 with 2 HR’s and 7 RBI’s through his first 2 games as a major leaguer. Not bad, and sure to get the attention of fantasy owners, so how good is this guy? Bowker was named the Giants 9th best prospect in a notably weak farm system. He’s posted a solid minor league line of .296/.350/.472 and really had his breakthrough last season at AA Connecticut where he hit .307/.363/.523 finally displaying the power the Giants had anticipated when they drafted him in the 3rd round of the ’04 draft. Bowker only has 520 or so AB’s above A ball so his experience is a bit limited. In a Giants OF filled with opportunity, he could make an impact and work his way into a lineup desperate for some pop, but the inexperienced OF is likely to have his fair shares of ups and downs in his first big league appearances. I wouldn’t go wasting my FA Budget for him even in the deepest leagues as his lineup, home park, and limited experience should limit his overall potential.
Chris Snyder:
Snyder’s sleeper status, or lack thereof, was a popular topic this spring as he busted out with a .323 average and 7 extra base hits in 31 AB’s. But Snyder slumped out of the gates and coming into Sunday’s game sat at an uninspiring .111/.314/.148 line through his first 27 AB’s. While the line is abysmal, the discrepancy between Snyder’s Avg and OBP immediately stand out. Despite the early struggles, Snyder was walking quite a bit, 6 times in 27 AB’s to be exact (for a whopping 22% BB Rate). So seeing Snyder have a mini-breakthrough on Sunday, going 3-4 with 2 2B’s and another BB, wasn’t a big surprise to those looking at the indicators rather than the actual numbers. Snyder’s lesson is one we preach around here often. Not only should you be patient with the players you’ve drafted early in the season, but look to the indicators first as opposed to the actual numbers when evaluating your players, even in small samples they can be useful.
Troy Tulowitzki:
Tulo got the day off on Sunday as the Rockies try to give him a day to clear his head from his awful 7-44 start. The poor start has nay-sayers already talking about a sophomore jinx, but the underlying numbers suggest Tulowitzki’s poor start is mostly due to some bad luck. Tulowitzki’s K (20.4% vs. 21.3%) and BB (9.0% vs. 9.3%) Rates are nearly identical to his breakout 2007 season. His GB Rate is slightly elevated, but nothing to be concerned about (45.7% vs. 41.6%). The big difference comes in Tulo’s BHIP% which finished last season at .278 and is now currently sitting at .151. Now is a wonderful time to buy low on Tulowitzki if a nervous owner is concerned about a potential sophomore slump.
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