It’s good ole “hump day” for those of you enjoying your first cup of coffee this morning and that means its “Value Picks Day” here at Fantistics. Each Wednesday we’ll be touching on the somewhat generic concept of Value.
One of the things I love most about baseball is that the game lends itself to statistical analysis. In baseball there aren’t sample size issues and for the most part you can isolate player performance. These two simple facts allow us to develop a basis for long-term evaluation and help us more accurately predict future player performance. This also helps in understanding a few ways that “Value” can be unlocked. Baseball is a long season filled with peaks and valleys for players; these peaks and valleys create opportunities, much like the stock market. So, one way we can unlock value is taking advantage of these peaks and valleys through buying players who are performing below their expected level of performance and selling players who are performing above their expected level of performance. This is a pretty established mantra and one that most owners are extremely cautious of this early in the season, so it’s one we won’t touch on this week, but it is one we’ll look ahead to later in the season when owners begin to let their guard down a bit. The other way to unlock Value, and the more commonly utilized method early in the season, is to find it on the free agent list. This is the type of Value we’ll be looking at today.
Joe got us started off on the right foot last week, so I’m going to try to pick up where he left off. In waiver-wire articles I’m primarily going to focus on players that are currently owned in less than 50% of leagues, according to ESPN.com, with the potential to have solid value in mixed leagues. Hopefully targeting these types of players will also cater to some of our subscribers playing in deeper formats as well as the traditional mixed leaguer out there. I’ll also highlight at least one two-start pitcher for the upcoming week for those streamers out there. Now let’s look for some value across positions:
C: Mike Napoli
Napoli’s value took a slight hit in spring training as Jeff Mathis’ presence threatened Napoli’s playing time. Early in the season this hasn’t been a concern as Napoli has racked up 22 AB’s, while catching 6 of the Angels first 8 games. The better news with Napoli is that he doesn’t need a lot of playing time to make a nice impact out of the catcher position. Over the last two seasons, Napoli has hit 26 HR’s, scored 87 runs, knocked in another 76 runs, and even swiped 7 bases in just 487 AB’s (essentially a full season’s worth of AB’s). Napoli’s had some problems staying healthy during his career and Mathis does pose a threat to take away some time, but the good news is Napoli doesn’t need a lot of AB’s to offer nice production in the counting stats. His high BB Rate (13.1% last season) helps him get on base and helps limit the impact his poor batting average has on your overall team. Napoli is currently owned in only 37.8% of leagues and makes for a great 2nd catcher option, who has Top 10 catcher upside if he can surpass 350 AB’s.
1B: Richie Sexson
Sexson is just one year removed from a .264-34-107 season, just one year! Yet he’s been thrown to the scrap heaps as if he’s officially done. Sexson is owned in just 28.8% of leagues because of last year’s abysmal .205-21-63 season. Granted Sexson’s season was pretty awful and showed legitimate signs of his decline, including an increased GB Rate (up to 47.5%) along with decreased HR/FB and Line Drive Rates. While all of these are bad signs for a 33 year old power hitter, he also suffered from some miserable luck. His BHIP% last year was just .161. With a decent amount of luck he should rebound into the .245-.260 range, which isn’t great but certainly is more appetizing than .205. The real key is Sexson’s power returning and the early returns in ’08 are strong. Sexson has 4 extra base hits in 23 AB’s and his GB Rate has dropped back down into the high 20’s. It’s not often you can find a potential 35+ HR hitter sitting on the waiver wire, but Sexson has a chance to be that guy this year.
2B: Tadahito Iguchi
Iguchi’s another forgotten veteran that plays nicely in Roto formats. Since coming over to the states, Iguchi has averaged .277-79-14-60-12. Not a bad line for a 2B and while he’s moved from traditional hitters parks to a vastly different pitchers park in San Diego, Iguchi still carries a bit of value for his mini-power speed combination and his run totals. Iguchi has no threat to his playing time in San Diego and is locked into the #2 hole, hitting in front of Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff. There aren’t a lot of nice places to hit in the San Diego lineup, but the #2 spot is one of them. Iguchi’s only owned in 17.3% of leagues right now despite averaging 14-12 in the power-speed categories over the last 3 seasons.
SS: Jeff Keppinger
I touched on Keppinger in Monday morning’s player blurbs but he’s the perfect fit for this type of article as well. Keppinger’s ownership % has jumped from 38.9% to 54.3% in just the last week, but at just 54.3% he’s still a steal with his multi-position flexibility and strong offensive numbers. Keppinger posted a delicious 2.00 EYE last season in limited playing time and has a career minor league EYE of 1.38. He’s going to hit for a high average with that kind of contact rate (96.3% last season) and hitting in a tremendous home ball-park in front of some run producers, he’s bound to score runs as well. My only concern with regards to Keppinger is his long-term playing time. Keppinger is currently holding the spot for Alex Gonzalez, a SS noted for his glove. Dusty Baker has always been attracted to slick-fielding SS’s, and as a result I could see Keppinger struggling to hold onto his role when Gonzalez returns. The good news is Keppinger’s early season performance might give Baker no other choice. Keppinger’s a nice pickup in Rotisserie formats because he’s going to offer some terrific batting average and run production upside early on.
3B: Aubrey Huff
Huff only played 15 games at 3B last year, so he may not qualify in some leagues that require 20+ games, but Huff is the epitome of the under-appreciated veteran. He’s not going to hit .300 or hit 30 HR’s or even drive in 100 Runs, like most of us are hoping for out of our stud 1B, but he is going to offer solid and under-appreciated production. Huff’s traditionally a slow starter (.763 career 1st half OPS vs. .865 career 2nd half OPS) who is off to a nice start this season hitting .333/.400/.667 and more importantly his EYE has returned early on in the season (1.00). Huff has alternated good and bad seasons with plate discipline since 2004 and in the seasons when his plate discipline has been strong he’s posted an average line of .284-75-25-85 in 144 games. Huff isn’t going to be a superstar, but he’s an under-appreciated veteran, owned in just 10.1% of leagues that can offer value as a Utility in mixed formats and even more in deeper leagues.
OF: JD Drew
It’s almost like a rite of passage in the fantasy world to have been burned by the talents of JD Drew. Drew’s talent is immense, as a potential 5 tool player who makes everything on the field look easy, but his production has never matched. Drew’s never topped 150 games in a season and has only knocked in 100 runs or hit 30 HR’s once, for a player with a career line of .285/.390/.502 he’s never been able to put it all together for fantasy owners. At the age of 32 it’s unlikely Drew’s going to have a breakout season but hitting in a great ballpark for LH hitters and in a tremendous lineup its hard to imagine Drew not hitting 20+ HR’s and knocking in and scoring 80+ runs. Last year was a lost season for Drew, but the strong start this April makes me believe he may have folded a bit under the pressure of last year’s contract. With the eyes off of him this season I think Drew can get back to the .280-80-20-80 line, which would offer a bit more value than the current 61.5% ownership would suggest.
Two-Start Pitcher for Next Week: John Danks
Danks is barely owned at all, in just 0.8% of leagues but gets two starts next week against the A’s and the Rays. Danks showed good skills in his rookie season with a solid K Rate of .78 and a decent BB Rate of .39, but he absolutely couldn’t keep the ball in the park. His 34.8% GB Rate didn’t play well in Chicago and as a result he surrendered 28 HR’s in only 139 IP. This year Danks first start he kept the ball on the ground more, posting a 52.6% GB Rate. This spring Danks showed improvement in both his control and HR Rates and is on the verge of taking some steps forward in his development. I like him as a two-start option for streamers next week.
