First Pitch - April 2, 2008 - "Value Picks"
Good morning! In today's edition of First Pitch, we will take a look at value picks. With a couple of games in the books and our fantasy teams up and running, its time to think about some players who may be on the waiver wire that you can keep on your "watch list" over the next couple of weeks. Consider this list the post-draft sleepers that may still be flying under the radar. In other words, I hope you read this First Pitch and say to yourself, "Really? You think this guy might have some value?" That's the reaction I want!
Before we dive into the list, let me first establish the general criteria I use when making this list. First, I assume these players have value and may potentially be available in typical 5x5 mixed rotisserie leagues. In other words, the scoring categories used to assess potential value in your league are Average, Runs, Home Runs, RBI, Stolen Bases, Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, E.R.A., and W.H.I.P. Both leagues are considered and all positions are covered.
Now that we have the formal stuff out of the way, let's dig into the list. You will see one player from each position and my rationale for each player. Hopefully some of these guys are still available for a good value in your league and you can pounce on a solid buying opportunity.
Wandy Rodriguez (STARTING PITCHER) - Houston Astros
29-year-old Wandy Rodriguez has certainly been a good pitch-and-ditch candidate over the last couple of years, but has rarely warranted a full-time spot on any fantasy rotation. Last season, he hurled over 182 innings, posted a 4.58 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and struck out 158 for a K/9 of 7.8. While the strikeouts were high, the rest of his numbers were very mediocre, including his ultimate win/loss record of 9-13. While the Astros do not show much promise of improvement from last season, I have reason to believe that Wandy will improve on last year's numbers and raise his strikeout total while lowering his ERA and WHIP. First, Fantistics forecasts his numbers at 4.36 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 170 K's for a 200 IP season. That's a 7.7 K/9, in-line with last season's result of 7.8. But let's take a look at his quality starts and the pitchers that he beat in the QS% department. He tossed 15 quality starts in 31 appearances last season, good or a 48.4 QS%. So basically, about half of his starts averaged 6.0 IP and 3 ER or less. Other fantasy pitchers in the league who had lower percentages? Mike Mussina, Dontrelle Willis, Jose Contreras, Paul Byrd, Jason Marquis, Kevin Millwood, Jeff Suppan, etc. And, each of those pitchers recorded significantly less K's than Wandy. The forecast for Wandy's QS this season is 16-for-34 (QS% of 47%), but I think he has the potential to break the 50% mark. He's currently suffering from a mild strained oblique, but it doesn't look too serious. According to ESPN.com, Wandy is currently owned in only 0.7% of all fantasy leagues.
Kurt Suzuki (CATCHER) - Oakland A's
24-year-old Kurt Suzuki has about 200 big league AB under his belt and playing on the west coast keeps him an unknown entity at only a 2.8% ownership rate. Frankly, even that rate seems high and is probably driven by the "Jarrod Saltalamacchia factor" with the Rangers catchers' recent demotion to the minor leagues. In limited action last year, Suzuki posted a 0.52 FPI, .249 average, and 7 HR in 213 AB. As the new starting catcher in Oakland, we project a .273 average, 15 HR, 74 RBI, and 0.59 in a 450 AB season. In the last 3-years at various levels in the minor leagues, Suzuki averaged a .280 average, 0.61 FPI, and .368 OBP. I especially like his 2005 and 2006 BB/K batting eye of 1.0+, but it strangely halved in 2007 to 0.51 when he reached Triple-A. A high OBP rate from a deep catcher sleeper could help you forget your catching woes, but don't expect crazy power numbers from Suzuki. An .800 OPS is the ceiling for the A's catcher in 2008.
Chris Duncan (1ST BASE / OUTFIELD) - St. Louis Cardinals
26-year-old Chris Duncan returns for his 3rd full season with the Cardinals. Owned in 86.4% of all leagues, there is still some availability in leagues for a cheap pick and should be considered to have nice upside in multi-player trades. Over the last two season, Duncan has averaged a HR for every 15.2 AB, an .883 OPS, and a 0.68 FPI. The criticism of Duncan as a fantasy player is his inconsistent playing time due to manager Tony LaRussa's lack of confidence in Duncan's ability to hit lefties. The concern is warranted. Against lefties last year, Duncan hit just .213 while hitting .271 against righties. However, there has been some indication this season that Duncan is going to get more chances to play against lefties and if he can stay healthy, should be able to get a full season of approximately 500 AB under his belt for the first time in his career. Fantistics predicts a 28 HR season, but that number could go up depending on Duncan's demand throughout the season. In other words, if Albert Pujols shuts-it-down mid-season like everybody is predicting, you will certainly see Duncan's playing time increase (either at 1B or in the OF), leading to more AB and, in theory, an increase in HR. He will hit 30 dingers one of these years and 2008 seems to be lining up as a good bet.
Ty Wigginton (SECOND BASE + OTHER MULTIPLE POSITIONS) - Houston Astros
30-year-old Ty Wigginton doesn't necessarily fly under radar screens (he is owned in most public fantasy leagues these days - 97.5% ownership), but I came into the 2008 season placing more value on him that most fantasy owners. Let's begin with multiple position eligibility. Wiggy played games at 6 different positions last season - 18 games at 1B, 39 at second base, 80 at 3B, 1 in LF, and 1 in RF. That probably gives him 1B, 2B, and 3B eligibility at a minimum (and possibly OF depending on your league's rules). There is tremendous value to have the flexibility to swap out players like Wigginton on days when your fantasy roster may not be at full capacity (Mondays, Thursdays and potential rainouts). With positions aside, Wigginton has put up solid numbers over the last couple of years and his move from Tampa Bay to Houston late last season will lead to additional upside. We saw the slight improvement in a limited time-frame briefly last year with Ty posting a 0.62 FPI as an Astro and a 0.57 FPI in Tampa Bay. Over the last two full seasons, he has averaged a HR/AB of 21.5, including an 18.5 rate in a full season with the Rays in 2006. While he's not an easy free agent pick-up, you might be able to convince an owner to "throw-in" Wigginton to get a deal over the finish line.
Pedro Feliz (THIRD BASE) - Philadelphia Phillies
32-year-old Pedro Feliz moves from the West Coast to the East to join the Philadelphia Phillies in his 9th big league season. Using Average Draft Position (ADP) as a gauge for Feliz's value during fantasy drafts, Feliz was the 27th ranked third baseman. With a 19.1% performance with his previous team, the San Francisco Giants. His 3-year averages include a .249 average, 0.48 ownership rate at a really deep 3B position, he's likely still be out there for you. Let's take a look at the past three years to get a gauge for Feliz's FPI, 27.9 HR/AB, and .713 OPS. Nothing to get too excited about there, but the last three seasons revealed 20, 22, and 20 HR years in a ballpark with a factor of 93. He now moves to a ballpark with a factor of 117 (more favorable) and is in an undisputed better offensive lineup for better support and more RBI and run opportunities. Furthermore, while his BHIP rate has consistently finished about 40-points lower than his average without a correction, a move to a better hitter's ballpark could result in an average improvement in-line with his singles rate. While he will unlikely be your starting 3B in most mixed leagues (unless your regular starter gets injured), you might be able to squeeze 25 HR's out of your Corner-Infield position at a cheap price.
Bobby Crosby (SHORTSTOP) - Oakland A's
The 28-year-old Crosby is no stranger to the fantasy scene and is definitely a recognizable name. But multiple disappointing seasons led by frequent injuries and inconsistent playing time has dropped Crosby's fantasy potential and has led to an overall ownership percentage of just 5.6% entering the 2008 season. Let's take a look back at Crosby's breakout 2004 season. That year, he hit .239 with a .737 OPS, 0.53 FPI, 22 HR, 64 RBI, and 70 runs scored. That year, Crosby led all AL rookies in home runs (22), RBIs (64), runs (70), hits (130), doubles (34), walks (58) and total bases (232). In fact, I clearly remember a hall-of-fame baseball analyst predicting Crosby to win the MVP award in 2005. But since then, he has barely cracked the 350 AB mark, leading to single-digit HR totals and a complete fantasy demise in all mixed leagues. When healthy, Crosby can run too, swiping a personal record of 10 bases in 93 games in 2007 and could break that mark in '08. I firmly believe Crosby has the talent to return to that 20-HR season and maybe swipe 15 bases if he can maintain his health. He has never really had a chance to peak (like most players in their late 20's typically do) and is now one of the veteran A's who will need to produce to earn Oakland any sort of respectability in the AL West.
Bill Hall (THIRD BASE / OUTFIELD) - Milwaukee Brewers
28-year-old Bill Hall was quite the 2007 disappointment with an FPI fall from 0.70 in 2005 and 2006 to a 0.53 in 2007. That's right - he had back-to-back seasons of 0.70 FPI seasons, with 2005's HR/AB at 29.5 compared to his 2006 of 15.3 (so there were different drivers in each year of his fantasy production). A look at his BHIP could have predicted an eventual return to normalcy. 2005 BHIP of .250 compared to his .291 average and his 2006 BHIP of .226 compared to his .270 average showed some luck in his production, which likely returned to his true level of .254 last season (with a BHIP of .240). Hall struggled a bit with a position change to CF last year that could have resulted in a distraction and ultimately, lower production. He won't return to his 0.70 FPI days, but I do think he should be good for a low-to-mid 0.60+ FPI with low 20's in HR/AB. The lineup around him continues to improve and Milwaukee's ballpark factor of 105 continues to favor all hitters who walk through Miller Park's doors. While he only has OF eligibility to start the season, he will soon earn 3B eligibility which gives fantasy owners some flexibility with roster decisions. Owned in 18.1% of all leagues, fantasy owners have short-term memories. They remember Hall's most recent campaign without a full-picture consideration of Hall's last three years. Consider him a calculated gamble at a cheap price.
