One of the early surprises so far has been Jake Westbrook. We all know Westbrook has good stuff but not dominating by any means. However, he’s now 1-1 with a 2.76 ERA after two very good outings, including his complete game against the Angels last night. Westbrook gave up just 3 earned runs while striking out 4 and walking none. Westbrook has only one walk in 16.1 innings, which is a good sign early on. Westbrook has always had a solid BB/9 clip (2.78) and is an excellent ground ball pitcher (almost 60% for his career. However, last year his BB/9 was up to 3.26 and his ERA was correspondingly higher. His ERA since 2003 (his first full season) is 4.13 and he has hit the 20 Quality Start mark only once so far in his career. I would advise tempering your expectations with Westbrook. I’m encouraged by his start to the year, especially since he has shown great control in only walking one batter in his first 16+ innings. Westbrook is a good 4th or 5th guy but he doesn’t have a ton of fantasy value. My advice is if you want him, spot start him in favorable matchups when he is likely to lower your team ERA and get the win.
Like Justin Morneau, fellow first baseman David Ortiz has suffered through an awful start to 2008. Unlike Morneau, he hasn’t showed signs of rebounding yet. Ortiz was 0-3 with 2 walks against the Royals yesterday afternoon, dropping his average to .103. He’s had just one extra-base hit in 29 at-bats, which was a homerun in a 5-0 win over Oakland. Slow starts aren’t new to Ortiz. Throughout his career he has started slowly in April as far as batting average goes (.274) but you can’t say the same for HR. Big Papi has belted 44 April homers in his career, marking the opening month as fourth most among the six-month season. While it may be safe to say Ortiz is starting on the downside of his prime, he still isn’t out of it. His ISO dropped to .290 in 2007 but has been above the .300 mark since 2003. You can never judge the type of season Ortiz will have by looking at April and May. While that’s true for most players, it’s especially true for Ortiz when you consider the fact that in his career he’s belted 167 HR combined in the months of July, August, and September. Be patient with Papi, he’ll turn it around. He did show one bright spot yesterday in the second inning when he crushed a pitch to right field with the bases juiced and narrowly missed a grand slam. However, if you have a solid backup, you might want to consider throwing him in at 1B until Ortiz breaks out.
Vlad Guerrero has started this year a little slow with his power numbers but hit his first HR of the young season in a 4-3 loss to the Indians Tuesday night. Vlad’s two-run blast to dead center took his RBI total to 5 and he has scored 3 runs this season while batting .306. There’s some concern with Vlad this season, as he’s had to deal with some nagging injuries since 2006 when he dislocated his shoulder and was out for a month of the season. He came into 2008 with some lingering knee problems during spring training, but reports say he’s 100% now. Guerrero hasn’t been in the 40-homer club since 2000 and he was under 30 homeruns last season for the first time since an injury shortened 2003 campaign. He has started this season with a K% far above what we’re used to from him along with an OBP, SLG and ISO well below the norm. However, Vlad still has some very good years left in him, hits third in a solid Angels lineup, and for the first time with LA he won’t have to carry the entire offensive load now that Torii Hunter has joined the club. When Guererro gets hot, he gets scorching hot, and I would expect his homer yesterday to get the fires burning.
Someone break up the Orioles. First Brian Roberts gets out to a scintillating start and then on Tuesday Aubrey Huff goes 4-4 at the plate with 4 RBI and a run scored in an 8-1 victory over the Rangers. Huff’s performance boosted his average to .333 and he now has 11 RBI with 2 HR along with an ISO around .340. Don’t expect the trend to continue for too long with Huff, as his ISO is normally in the .200 range. However, Huff’s career average is a solid .284 and he’ll be hitting in the meat of the Orioles order all year. He is a serviceable outfielder only in deep leagues until he can prove that he can hit for power consistently. I think you’re better off taking him as a backup for now.
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