Josh Hamilton – Fantistics preseason projections for Hamilton show that we thought fairly highly of him (.287/33/99), and so far he has not disappointed (.293/4/21) through the first 23 games. He also added to his totals last night, going 2-5 with 2 RBI’s and a run scored. I think we have his homeruns and average almost dead on, but I would not be surprised to see Hamilton pass 100 RBI’s with Ian Kinsler and Michael Young hitting in front of him. Hamilton’s double last night gives him 13 extra base hits on the season, meaning he can easily drive in runs even with just a runner on first. There is no reason, besides how he deals with playing every day for an entire season, to think that Hamilton’s first month is just a lucky, hot streak. Heading into last night’s action, he had an EYE of .77, which is not great but pretty good. Also, Hamilton has actually gotten unlucky. His singles average through the first 22 games was .234 (last year his singles average was .251, and the league average is around .245-.250), and his HR rate was down 1.6 points from last year. It is scary to think what Hamilton will do when his HR creeps back up towards what it was last year and he gets a bit luckier with balls in play.
Ervin Santana – Santana had a so-so outing last night against the Tigers, although it is officially listed as a quality start. He gave up three runs over 6.3 IP, yielding 6 hits while striking out 4 and walking 2. The important thing to take out of this is that Santana has been able to pitch adequately on the road this season. Last year, away from home, Santana had an 8.38 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, and a BB:K ratio of 36:61. Conversely, at home he had an 3.27 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and a BB:K ratio of 24:61. However, with last night’s start, Santana now has 3 straight quality starts on the road; Santana won all three of those games. If Santana can continue to translate the success that he has had at home into opposing ballparks, he could easily exceed expectations this season.
Delmon Young – We expected Young to turn a lot of his doubles into homeruns this year and projected 26 homers for him. The young 22 YO is certainly talented enough to obtain that total, but for the moment he is really struggling with his power (0 HR). He has an ISO of just .060. Last year his ISO was .119, and like I said, one would think that some of his 38 doubles would translate into homeruns this season. The main reason for Young’s power struggles seems to be his inability to hit the ball in the air. Both his LD% and FB% are down by about 10% each from last season, and as a result he has a very high GB% of 64.3%. I haven’t heard any explanation as to why this may be happening, but it may be a result of Young’s awful EYE (.21).
Zack Greinke – Greinke is another pitcher that is off to a hot start, in large part due to an impressive change up. He held the Blue Jays to one run (earned) over 7 innings off of 5 hits. He also struck out 4 and walked 1. Greinke, like Lee, has a low BABIP, but unlike n Lee’s case, there is not a lot of evidence to show that Greinke’s skills are responsible for that low number (.264), with the exception of a slightly decreased LD%. Greinke is actually walking hitters at a higher rate (2.79/9) than usual and, at the same time, striking them out at a much lower rate (4.66/9) than usual. He is also getting luck in terms of HR, as just 2.9% of the fly balls that Greinke has given up have made it over the fence. Over his career, that percentage for Greinke is 9.8%. When more balls start finding holes and start to carry over the outfield wall, Greinke is going to be in a lot of trouble unless he is able to get his walk and strikeout totals in line with what he did last year. Keep in mind that even when Greinke’s K/9 and BB/9 were at his personal best last year, he still managed only a 3.69 ERA and 1.295 WHIP. That is respectable, but right now Greinke’s K and BB rates are not near last year’s levels of 7.82/9 and 2.66/9 respectively, so you should expect an ERA and WHIP well below last season’s final line.
There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning. Members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here. Not a member? Join today.
