Joakim Soria:
Save opportunities are always a difficult category to predict and for some reason most fantasy owners operate under the assumption that closers on good teams get more opportunities than those on bad teams. This usually drives down the value of closers on traditionally weak teams and creates a nice buying opportunity for owners during the draft and often times into the season. This is one of the main reasons we (fantasy analysts) always preach drafting skill when it comes to closers and if you’re looking for skill few closers have more of it than Joakim Soria. Soria finished off Luke Hochevar’s first major league win on Saturday night tossing his 10th consecutive scoreless inning to start the season and converting his 6th save in as many opportunities. Soria showed tremendous skills last year with a 1.09 K Rate and 0.28 BB Rate while allowing just 3 HR’s in 69 innings so this season’s performance shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, but I still get the feeling the perception of a limited number of save opportunities for the Royals drives Soria’s value down. For those in Rotisserie formats Joakim Soria is a poor man’s Jonathan Papelbon and arguably the 2nd best closer in all of baseball but isn’t valued as such. If you can move a bigger name, maybe someone like Joe Nathan or Huston Street for Joakim Soria and another piece I’d pull the trigger in an instant. Soria’s 11 K’s and 0 BB’s in 10 scoreless innings aren’t a fluke and he’ll end up being one of the 5 most valuable closers at season’s end without anyone noticing.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia:
“Salty” (if you don’t know who Salty is please refer to name above as I don’t feel like butchering his name) was called up this weekend and earned his first start Saturday night. Salty garnered plenty of attention and fantasy love during the pre-season as he became a prime target after the top tier catchers were gone thanks to his immense talent and generous home ball-park. So when news of his call-up hit the wires on Friday I scurried to add him as a 2nd catcher in leagues where I had a forgettable name as my 2nd catcher, but I’m going to go against my own move and caution owners’ expectations for the youngster. Salty’s filled with upside as he’s flashed brilliance at both the minor league and major league level in some small samples, but he’s also flashed the growing pains you’d expect with a younger player. So pick your spot wisely with regards to adding Salty and make sure the guy he’d replace isn’t a better/more consistent option. Also be prepared to deal with some extended slumps and possibly take some lumps in the batting average department if you’re investing in Salty as he hit just .250 and struck out in 28% of his 167 AB’s last season. Adding Salty isn’t a bad idea by any means, just know what you’re getting into before you make the move and make sure you’re not dreaming on his “best-case” scenario when projecting him going forward.
Clay Buchholz:
For the 2nd consecutive start Buchholz flashed the incredible potential that had most here at Fantistics drooling heading into this season. Buchholz shut down the Rays for 7 2/3 innings before making his lone mistake of the game, surrendering a 2 run shot to Akinori Iwamura. He finished off the 8th inning and earned his first CG of the season but took his 2nd loss in the process. The start made Buchholz 3 out of 5 in quality starts and lowered his season ratios to 4.08 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP. Considering those numbers include a horrid outing against the Yankees in which Buchholz allowed 9 base-runners and 7 ER’s in just 3 2/3 innings, Buccholz overall numbers don’t look to bad through 5 starts. He’s still showing the dominating K Rate (.94) combined with the solid control (.35 BB Rate) we expected and is likely assuring himself a rotation spot even when Bartolo Colon returns (mostly thanks to Jon Lester’s struggles). If Buchholz owners showed impatience early in the season hopefully you were able to take advantage of getting a potential front-line starter at a fraction of the cost. After his last 2 starts its unlikely Buchholz owners are going to waver on the young stud’s potential. There will be some occasional bumps in the road (like the Yankees start earlier this season) but at the end of the year Buchholz is going to end up with numbers that look a lot like a #2 or #3 fantasy starter. Stay patient with the youngster because I promise the good will far outweigh the bad by the time the season ends.
Troy Percival:
Mike’s blurb on Percival earlier this week almost seems “prophetic” as Percival has racked up 3 more saves since the posting, improving to 5-5 in save opportunities this season. I have to admit coming into the season I had about as much faith in Percival holding his job as I did in my Bears selecting Brian Brohm yesterday (No… I’m still not over this. Seriously Matt Forte??? Matt Forte??? Sure he looks like he could be a solid RB but there were 4 others on the board and we haven’t seen a decent QB in Chicago since Sid Luckman. Did I mention I love Brian Brohm? And of course the Packers draft him… of all franchises, sigh…) in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft. While my lack of faith in the Bears proved true (Angelo why don’t you pay Urlacher and at least make him happy since we’re 20+ million under the cap instead of having our cheap owner try to serenade him!), my lack of faith in Percival hasn’t looked quite as good. Percival’s been dominant in his first 9 appearances allowing just 2 hits and 1 BB while striking out 9. I wasn’t a big believer in the small sample size pitching in the NL Central translating to the AL East, but Percival’s early season numbers suggest otherwise. I still don’t trust Percival long-term but I’m a stubborn man and his indicators suggest he should be trusted. I admit, I’m beginning to come around and for those relying on Percival for help in saves he appears safe.
Erik Bedard:
Bedard’s first start out will largely be looked at as a big success as he threw 6 2/3 shutout innings while allowing just 2 hits and striking out 4. But as you could probably guess by my use of the term “largely” I’m not going to declare it that big of a success. Bedard once again walked 4 batters in his 6 2/3 innings and now has 12 BB’s in 17 2/3 innings this season. As I mentioned in a previous post these control issues were also apparent in the spring and with a hip condition that is degenerative I really caution owners to consider using this start as a reason to sell (closer to full value) “high” on Bedard. Bedard’s motion involves plenty of hip torque which explains some of the issues and as a result I think he’s compensating some to try to limit the injury which is likely the cause of a lack of command. If he tries to “push through” the hip and rotate more violently as he has in the past he may get command back but will likely risk further injury. I don’t think Bedard’s going to end up making it through the season without another DL trip and I don’t think he’s going to be a fantasy stud, so if you can find someone to pay full value for Bedard I’d consider moving quickly.
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