Ervin Santana - Santana posted his third straight quality start, allowing three runs over seven innings to the Rangers last night. Santana was very unlucky on balls hit into play last year, and that fact, combined with his excellent stuff, puts him firmly into the "likely upside surprise" category in my estimation. The extremely low GB% is his one major negative, although his control is spotty enough that at times it is an issue as well. Hey, in the realm of the third and fourth starters, everyone comes with some warts.
Greg Smith - Greg Smith has been very solid in his first two starts for the A's, but there isn't much in his track record that would lead you to believe this is sustainable. His control has been spotty throughout his minor league career, with a few 10 or 12 start stretched where it was very good followed by multiple stretches where it was pedestrian. His GB% is quite poor, which might be OK when he's pitching at home, but probably not so much on the road. His K rates have been mediocre at best, so there's no help there. If you're going to use him, the next few starts (KC, @SEA) offer up his best chances for reasonable matchups. Following that, I don't think I'd be optimistic.
Jon Lester - Lester's control struggles continued against the Indians last night as he walked five more men in just 4 1/3 innings, giving him 15 free passes in 20 IP so far this year. You can't pitch well allowing that many men on for free, and his ERA (5.31) shows it. This has always been an issue for Lester, so for every person forecasting a bright future for the young lefty there has been someone on the other side of the fence claiming that he'll never be more than a 4th or 5th starter. I'm in the latter camp, and if Lester isn't careful Justin Masterson could usurp his spot before too long.
Delmon Young - Young hasn't been too exciting yet for the Twins, although he did have two singles and a double yesterday, but he also stole his third base of the season, which is halfway to our projected total for the year. Young stole over 30 bases a year in the minors, so I fear that we (and most other projections that I've seen) have shorted his speed a bit....in my opinion he is a potential 30/30 player down the road. I would revise my opinion upward of his expected SB total for the year obviously, which just adds another bit of value to a potentially top-tier player.
Evan Longoria - Well, he looks ready. Longoria doubled, homered, and walked in four trips yesterday, and looks every bit the top prospect starting his major league career. As Drew cautioned a few weeks back, he isn't likely to much better than the average 3B in his first season, but if there's any keeper aspect to your league at all you absolutely must take his likely future stardom into consideration. As for Willy Aybar, well, I probably would have tried to play through that hammy.
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