Preseason Player Projections - March 28, 2008| article by Michael Berman
What do a hand fracture, a chronic bad back, a broken cheek bone and a broken leg have in common? They are all injuries that have kept Nationals 1B Nick Johnson out of the lineup for a significant period of time during his career. Johnson is back and healthy and by all reports will be the starting first baseman for the Nats when the season opens. Johnson is a sabermatricans dream with his ability to get on base. He has posted BB% of 13% or more in the past four years. This has contributed a career .395 OBP. In addition to his ability to take walks, Johnson is a heavy line drive hitter posting a LD% over 20% since coming to D.C. Because of his past injuries, Johnson will be overlooked in many leagues. However, he should be considered, especially in deep leagues or leagues starting multiple utility players or corner infielders. Duplicating his 2006 numbers might be a little ambitious but if he can stay on the field he should put up numbers similar numbers 2005.
Rangers SP Jason Jennings won his first game of the spring on Thursday allowing two runs in 5.1 innings. Jennings did not pitch after August 20th last year and is recovering from surgery to fix a torn flexor tendon. Jennings finished with a 2.12 ERA this spring. However, even if you wanted to ignore and give Jennings the benefit of the doubt for his injury plague 2007, one should not expect Jennings to return to his 2006 numbers. That year was almost a perfect storm for Jennings where he posted a HR/FB% of 7% and a career low in .293 BABIP. Both these indicators combined with a below average career K/BB ratio of 1.51 should mean a return to a 5+ ERA and 1.50+ WHIP that was the norm for Jennings prior to 2006.
The chants to “Free Andre Ethier” are growing louder by the day from both Dodger fans and fantasy owners alike. Ethier (1.165 OPS) has out produced incumbent Juan Pierre (.500 OPS – that’s not a typo) by a country mile this spring. His offensive supremacy combined with being an above-average fielder would make it an absolute crime if Ethier isn’t starting in left field for Los Angeles come opening day. His gaudy spring numbers is making fantasy owners salivate but owners’ expectations should be tempered a bit. Ethier has displayed only a slightly above average eye in his career (8.7 BB%) and has only hit 9.3% of his fly balls out of the park. Owners should expect just average numbers from Ethier in 2008. However, given the chance to play every day he’s a nice alternative to the norm and has plenty of upside.
Padres SP Mark Prior threw 25 pitches off the mound to live hitters for the first time since he had arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder last February. Prior has been place on the Padres 60-day DL and isn’t expected to return to the big club till at least June 1st. Prior to an injury plague 2006 season, Prior had four consecutive seasons of K/9 ratio great than 10.00. In addition, Prior has a career 3.51 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, this is all despite batters having a career .315 BABIP. Prior is worth stashing away in leagues with multiple DL spots for the potential strikeout numbers alone.
The Rockies named Franklin Morales the team’s fifth starter. Despite a 6.65 ERA this spring, fantasy owners should keep an eye on the young Rockies hurler. Morales pitched well in his 8 starts in the big leagues last year posting a 3.43 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. However, this was aided by a .274 BABIP and 6.7 HR/FB%. On the positive side for Morales backers, he greatly reduced his BB/9 after he got called up. In 112.2 minor league innings in 2007, Morales posted a 4.63 BB/9. However, in just 39.1 major league innings, Morales reduced this metric by 44.7% to 3.20, which is just around the league average. It’s a small sample size but definitely a step in the right direction. In addition, he showed himself to be an extreme groundball pitcher (54.9% GB% in 2007) which bodes well in Colorado. Duplicating his 2007 numbers over the course of the full season for Morales seems a bit of a stretch but a 4.30 ERA and 1.30 WHIP wouldn’t be out of the question.
When the Rockies have a competition for the final spot in their rotation and it’s between Mark Redman and Josh Towers, someone has to win. Redman was the winner as his 7.20 spring ERA just edged out Towers’ 7.23 ERA. If Redman even crossed your mind as a potential deep sleeper, here are some numbers to hopefully erase that thought. In three of the last four years, Redman has posted a 1.50 WHIP or greater. In addition, his K/BB ratio hasn’t even approached 2.00 since Bush’s first term in office. To make matters worse, Redman’s FB% increased by 8.9%, a jump that doesn’t bode well in Coors Field. Redman shouldn’t even be on the radar for any fantasy owners.
Much to the chagrin of his fantasy owners, Marlins’ manager Fredi Gonzalez stated his preference that SS Hanley Ramirez not do quite as much basestealing this year. Lucky for fantasy owners, even if there is a slight reduction in Ramirez’ stolen base attempts; he is still the best hitting shortstop in the game. Ramirez absolutely raked last year. He posted a .948 OPS and was also able to increase his HR/FB% by 3%. One thing to watch from Ramirez is that he has only showed average patience at the plate (7.5 BB% in 2007). However, with a weaker lineup than in the past behind him, if he is able to show even more patience, he should have some additional stolen base run scoring opportunities.
Many owners passed on Rich Harden in their drafts and for good reason; he’s only pitched 71.1 innings since 2005. Harden was around the 50th pitcher off the board in many drafts. After his first start vs. the Red Sox in Tokyo on Wednesday, those who passed on him may be regretting that decision. Harden pitched 6 strong innings, only allowing 3 hits and 3 walks while notching 9 strikeouts. Even when the Red Sox hitters were able to make contact, Harden had them fooled. His LD% for the game was a miniscule 9.1% while his FB% was 63.6%. In other words, Harden had the Red Sox hitters off balanced and popping up his pitches for easy outs. It’s only one start but it’s a nice thing for Harden owners to see and they should expect many more of them in the future...as long as he can stay on the field.
Marlins OF Jeremy Hermida has been battling a hamstring injury all spring and hasn’t played in a major league spring training game since Mach 15th. However, he did appear in a minor league game yesterday as a designated hitter. At this point, Hermida is likely to start the year on the disabled list and probably miss the Marlins’ first few games. However, Hermida owners shouldn’t panic yet. Hermida had a great second half of the season in 2007. He posted a .340 batting average and .956 OPS after the break. In addition, Hermida saw a nice jump in his power numbers between 2006 and 2007. His HR/FB% increased from 6.2% in 2006 to 15.7% in 2007. This correlated to 13 more home runs in ‘07 than in ‘06. His fantastic second half combined with his power surge in 2007, make Hermida a nice breakout candidate for 2008.
Phillies SP Kris Benson was reassigned to the team’s Minor League camp on Thursday as he continues to recover from right shoulder surgery. Benson had hoped to be ready for opening day but at this point hopes to return by late-April or early-May. After leaving the Pirates in the middle of the 2004, Benson has seen a big drop off in his strikeout numbers. His K/9 has dropped 39% from 2004 to 2006 and his numbers in ’05 and ’06 might have been worse if not for a generous BABIP. Owners should be cautious on Benson and shouldn’t expect a return to his Pittsburgh days but if you have numerous DL spots, he might be worth a flier.
Despite having a team-leading 13 RBI this spring training, Phillies 3B Pedro Feliz isn’t a good candidate for a breakout 2008. Feliz might be the only player in the majors to consistently hit 20+ home runs each season yet struggles to maintain a .700 OPS. The biggest reason for this shortcoming is his inability to display any patience at the plate. Feliz's BB% fell for the second straight year to a meager 4.9%. Feliz has also seen both his LD% and his HR/FB% decrease for the third straight year which is a sure sign that the stroke and power he once so prominently displayed has significantly diminished. However, everything is not bleak for Feliz. He does go from hitting in one of the worst home run parks for right-handed hitters in San Francisco to the best in the league in Philadelphia. However, even with the change of scenery, Feliz should still be considered a low-end 3B and fantasy owners’ expectations should remain typical.
On Wednesday Mets SP Pedro Martinez claimed that he a human-being and not superhuman after all. Martinez had me fooled for a while especially during his hey-day when in 1999 when he posted an astounding 0.74 WHIP. These days Martinez is more Clark Kent than ever but that doesn’t there still isn’t have some Superman in him. Instead of posting K/BB ratios in the 8’s, it now sits in the between 3.5 and 4.5, which is still excellent. Obviously, the biggest question mark for Martinez is his ability to stay healthy. Lucky neither the Mets nor fantasy owners need 35 starts in 2008 for their respective seasons to be successful. Fantasy owners should expect around 25 starts from Martinez this year and him to be good (3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) but not great, at least by Pedro’s standard.
The Orioles purchased the contract of Steve Trachsel on Thursday which all but ensures him a spot in the team’s rotation when the season begins next week. Steve Trachsel being in the O’s rotation is the epitome of their problems. Trachsel does nothing for Baltimore except eat up innings which could be used to give their youngsters some experience. Trachsel has seen his K/9, BB/9 and K/BB ratio all go in the wrong direction for two consecutive years. That’s not a very good combination no matter how you look at it. This has led to him having an ERA consistently near 5.00 and a WHIP consistently near 1.60 in recent seasons. Trachsel should be avoided in all leagues.
Tigers SP Dontrelle Willis continued his struggles this spring on Wednesday. Willis let up four walks, eight hits and seven runs in 3.0 innings. Willis finished the spring with an 8.64 ERA. Willis’ strikeout rates have remained consistent (around 6.40) during his recent decline but his walk rates have been on the rise (up 82% since 2005). On the positive side for Willis owners, he has been a bit unlucky as of late posting an unlucky singles % and BABIP which should lead to a lower ERA and WHIP in 2008. With additional run support, owners should see an increase in his wins total and if he ever was able to regain his control of the strike zone, we could see him return to his once dominant form.
The Rangers have named RP C.J. Wilson their closer to start the 2008 season. Wilson will be given first shot at the job but is expected to be on a short leash because of his past struggles and inexperience. Wilson has the stuff to keep the job. He’s a lefty with a very deceptive motion. Wilson’s strikeout numbers (8.30 K/9) are solid. However, he needs to improve his command. He has some control issues at time (4.35 BB/9) and also had hitters getting more lumber on the ball in 2007 as his LD% increased by 2.5%. Wilson is an extreme groundball pitcher having posted nearly a 50% GB% the last two seasons which bodes well for his owners in the Texas heat.
Cardinals’ manager Tony LaRussa suggested that the team could rest Troy Glaus one game a series this season. If the Cardinals went ahead with this plan, it would mean Troy playing between 110 and 120 games this season. Glaus hasn’t played more than 115 games in three of the last five seasons. Glaus’ reduction in playing time needs to be considered when thinking about him as a sleeper pick. Even playing through injury, Glaus has posted a .830 are greater OPS in each of the past five seasons. Glaus has a good eye and is willing to take walks as he’s had a BB% over 12.5% in eight consecutive seasons. Owners should watch how the Cardinals use Glaus and how he starts out of the gate. This should be a good indicator whether or not he is worth taking a gamble on for the rest of the season.
Blue Jays closer B.J. Ryan hasn’t thrown in Grapefruit League action since March 17th after complaining of minor discomfort in his left forearm. The Jays will put Ryan on the DL to start the season with the hopes of having him back with the club in mid-April. Ryan is a nice late round pick for those in need of saves. The team is paying him $30M over the next three season which means if he’s healthy he’ll be closing. Up until last season, Ryan posted 3 straight years of K/9 over 10.00. If Ryan returns to normal and is able to throw his devastating slider like he use to, he’ll again be one of the more dominant closers in the league.
Andy Sonnanstine started for the Rays on Thursday had his first poor outing of the spring as he gave up four runs on five hits with two walks and two strikeouts in four innings of work. Sonnanstine had an impressive spring (2.50 ERA/0.94 WHIP) which earned him the third spot in the Rays’ rotation to start the season. With all the talk in Tampa being about the health of Scott Kazmir's elbow, the emergence of James Shields and Matt Garza finally getting an opportunity, second-year SP Andy Sonnanstine has been lost in the shuffle. Don't let Sonnanstine's 5.85 ERA throw you off, he is the real sleeper in the Rays rotation. Sonnanstine's control is good as he walked only 4.69% of batters he faced in 2007 while also posting a K/BB rate of 3.73 in 2007. Owners should expect his WHIP to remain around 1.30 and while also posting an ERA in the low 4's.
Jose Guillen might be in the Royals opening day lineup after all. A report by The Associated Press indicated that Major League Baseball and the Players Association were nearing an agreement on a tougher drug policy. Part of the agreement would eliminate the 15-day suspensions imposed on Guillen and Baltimore's Jay Gibbons. Guillen in the lineup would be a welcome site to Royals fans and his fantasy owners alike. After a terrible 2006 in Washington, Guillen produced well last year in Seattle (.813 OPS) but now is on his seventh team in as many years. Guillen set a career high in BB% in 2008 but it was only 6.5% which doesn’t say a lot for his patience. Guillen did benefit last year from a .330 BABIP and a decrease in his batting average should be expected. Until he proves otherwise he is nothing more than a fifth outfielder in most fantasy leagues.
Giants SS Omar Vizquel who is recovering from left knee surgery is expected to play in a Minor League exhibition game on Saturday and hopes to return to the team in mid-April. Vizquel arguably had the worst season in his career and may finally be showing his age. Vizquel had a .621 OPS in 2007, a drop of 20% points from .06. At this same time his LD% decreased by 3.9% which is probably partly responsible for the .265 BABIP. Even if he’s healthy, Vizquel is nothing more than a desperate injury replacement as a shortstop or middle infielder at this point in his career.
