Dodgers Outfield
Pierre v. Ethier. A decision that Dodgers fans and fantasy owners await with bated breath. No decision has been made as of late Wednesday, but the guess here is that Ethier will open as the starting left fielder with Matt Kemp in right as the other bookend to Andruw Jones. Joe Torre may have already made up his mind, but I’d certainly love to be a fly on the wall during an “Andre, I hate to tell you this, but…” conversation. Ethier is batting .340 to Pierre’s .204. Ethier also leads the team in home runs with five and he’s even tossed in two steals. Pierre has already made it known that he won’t be happy as a reserve, so this could get ugly quickly.
Dodgers Third Base
So far, it doesn’t seem that the Dodgers are planning on pursuing a third base solution from outside the organization, as the Brandon Inge and Joe Crede rumors seem to have all but dried up. That leaves Tony Abreu as the likely starter to open the year, with Nomar Garciaparra (hand) replacing him when healthy and then battling Andy LaRoche (finger) when LaRoche is able to return, likely sometime in late-May. Abreu has very little power and doesn’t run enough to provide much fantasy (or real life) value and would need to hit over .300 to have much of a chance at seeing regular at-bats, particularly once Garciaparra returns. Blake DeWitt has impressed this spring, but he’s just 22 and not quite ready.
Clayton Kershaw
Kershaw has been quite impressive this spring, including Monday in which the lefty struck out six Brewers over three scoreless, one-hit innings. He has the best ERA, 0.90, of any pitcher on the team with at least 10 innings and has mixed in a 13:3 K:BB. Kershaw is still just 20 years old with five games above A-ball to his credit, but there’s been some talk about having him open as the team’s No. 5 starter. That’s not likely to happen according to manager Joe Torre, but with Jason Schmidt’s status up in the air due to his shoulder rehab and Esteban Loaiza’s always-shaky status, we could see Kershaw in Dodger blue sometime this summer, or perhaps earlier. His 4.9 BB/9 last year in the minors would seem to suggest he’s not quite as polished as he needs to be, but he’s coming – quickly.
Giants infield
What a mess. With the season-ending Achilles injury to Kevin Frandsen, Giants fans are looking at paying triple-digits a pop to see this starting infield: 1B Rich Aurilia, 2B Eugenio Velez, SS Brian Bocock, 3B Jose Castillo. If you’ve heard of all four of those guys, give yourself a pat on the back. Ray Durham (hamstring) and Omar Vizquel (knee) won’t be out too long, but does it really matter? None of these guys are going to have much fantasy value outside of Velez. Velez is actually somewhat interesting from a fantasy perspective. Velez is enjoying a fantastic spring, batting .309 with a league-high 10 stolen bases. Velez has little power, but he’s also stolen 64 and 58 bases the past two years, and with the problems the Giants have been having, 350 at-bats seems possible. Nice NL-only and deeper mixed league play. He’ll probably never be a regular thanks to the lack of power and shaky batting eye, but if you need steals, Velez is a nice end-game option.
Giants Left Field
Clearly the veteran Dave Roberts is going to get most of the starts here while he’s healthy, but expect a semi-platoon with Rajai Davis as the right-handed side. Roberts is hitting .342 to Davis’ .273 this spring, but you have to figure at some point the Giants will realize (they probably have already) that their name has already been written in the NL West cellar. I’m not sold on the 27 year-old Davis as a future regular, but he did have a nice .363 OBP last year in 142 at-bats for the Giants and has shown pretty solid strike zone judgment in the minors as well.
Jorge Cantu
Cantu has locked down the Marlins’ starting third base job, probably giving the club yet again, the worse defensive infield in baseball, especially on the left side, as Mike Jacobs is okay at first base. Cantu is certainly draftable in NL-only leagues, as there’s 20-homer potential in his bat, though if you’re expecting .286-28-117 again (2005), you’ll be disappointed. Cantu’s career EYE of 0.27 firmly caught up to him in 2006, and after batting .249/.295/.404 that year, it’s surprising to see him land a starting job at this point in his career. Fortunately for him, the Marlins obliged by dealing Miguel Cabrera. Cantu’s competition was either waived (Jose Castillo) or sent to Triple-A, so he should get an extended chance to prove he deserves to stick in the job. Should Dallas McPherson managed to stay healthy long enough to flash his enormous power potential in Triple-A, Cantu may have a battle on his hands.
Akinori Iwamura
Iwamura appears to have locked down the leadoff spot in Tampa Bay, and with some pretty big bats behind him, 100 runs scored appears likely. Iwamura went 2-for-4 Wednesday to raise his batting line this spring to a solid .333/.417/.548. Iwamura isn’t your prototypical leadoff hitter in the sense that he won’t get you 30+ stolen bases, but 10-15 steals and a dozen or so homers is reachable. There’s some batting average risk here, but Iwamura should draw enough walks to maintain a sufficient OBP. There’s also the nice bonus that he’ll qualify at second base in most leagues very soon.
Rockies starting rotation
There really aren’t any position battles remaining in Colorado worth mentioning now that it’s been announced that Jayson Nix has won the second base job. As far as the rotation, the locks are Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Franklin Morales. Morales is sporting a 5.40 ERA and mediocre 8:5 K:BB in his 11.2 innings, but the Rockies rightfully realized that having both Mark Redman and Kip Wells is the rotation at the same time doesn’t exactly do wonders for their pennant hopes. Wells has been the least worst of the two, but even he sports a 3:7 K:BB (no, I didn’t get the two number inverted). Josh Towers is also in the mix, but really the only name to remember for fantasy purposes is Jason Hirsh. Hirsh should return from a right shoulder injury around mid-April and would be worth an NL-only look once we see how he fares in his first couple starts. Back in 2005 and 2006, Hirsh sported minor league ERAs of 2.94 and 2.10 with a combined 8.4 K/9 for those two years, so he’s worth monitoring despite his home park.
Rockies outfield
Clearly Holliday-Taveras-Hawpe is set as the starting trio. Despite Hawpe’s troubles with southpaws (.214/.283/.397 in 2007), he isn’t expected to be a full-time platoon guy, though he could lose a few starts to Jeff Baker. Scott Podsednik could be NL-only worthy at some point this year as he’s made the team as a No. 4 / No. 5 outfielder after hitting .345 with a team-leading six stolen bases, though it’s hard to project more than 200 at-bats barring a significant injury to Willy Taveras.
Padres Left Field
With the demotion of Chase Headley to Triple-A despite a .371 average and .738 slugging percentage, it’s likely that journeyman Jody Gerut will begin the year as the starting left fielder. The only reasonable explanation for the move is that the Padres want to limit Headley’s service time and delay his free agency an extra year, as they could clearly use his bat in what is looking like an anemic lineup. Gerut wasn’t exactly terrible this spring, batting .303 with three home runs, but you have to figure that as soon as Headley gains some more experience defensively in Triple-A, that he’ll be back. Scott Hairston will probably play center while Jim Edmonds is out, and with Brian Giles having a nice game on Tuesday, it appear he’ll be ready to go Opening Day in right. Target Headley (.330/.437/.580 last year in Double-A) in keeper leagues and year-to-year leagues with deeper rosters.
Padres No. 4 and No. 5 starters
Randy Wolf looks ready to go as the team’s No. 5 starter. He had a couple pretty brutal games to open camp, but he’s gotten better and better each time out since, including Monday when he tossed six shutout innings against the Angels. That lowered Wolf’s ERA to a still-ugly 6.28, but it’s all about momentum headed towards Opening Day, and Wolf seems to have it. You know the risks with Wolf, but don’t forget this was a guy who, despite having his season cut short last year, still posted a strong 8.2 K/9. In the No. 5 spot, Mark Prior reportedly threw some “nasty curveballs” over the weekend and is targeting a May return. It’s hard to be too optimistic about a guy who’s thrown just 43.2 innings cine 2005, but Prior had always been known for having clean mechanics and a strong work ethic, so perhaps there’s a chance he’ll be a viable starter this year. You never know. Justin Germano was officially named the No. 5 starter on Wednesday, but it’s tough to recommend a guy coming off a year in which he had a 5.3 K/9.
Kelvim Escobar
Given Escobar’s shoulder woes this spring, it wasn’t a total surprise Wednesday to hear that he may miss the season with a tear in his right shoulder. It’s a tough break for the Angels and for Escobar’s fantasy owners, as both expected big things from him this year. With John Lackey already out with an elbow injury, this leaves an Opening Day rotation of Jered Weaver, Jon Garland, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, and probably Dustin Moseley. Moseley has the edge on prospect Nick Adenhart after a five scoreless innings effort earlier in the week. They say you can never have too much pitching, and after I was critical of the Garland/Cabrera deal, I have to give GM Tony Reagins credit for bringing in additional rotation depth. Now he probably needs to go out and find another starter unless Lackey is truly ready in May and both Saunders and Santana prove they are worthy of rotation spots all year. Santana has a 5.09 ERA in 17.2 innings, though the 14 strikeouts are good to see. If he can improve his work away from Anaheim, all the better.
Chris Snyder
Snyder’s so-called “sleeper” status is probably out the window by now. The word is certainly out considering he’s now hitting .390/.479/.878 with five homers in 41 at-bats this spring and has no real competition (from Miguel Montero). Snyder is probably a top-8 catcher at this point and considering his second half performance last year (.284/.366/.503), these spring training numbers aren’t a total fluke. Snyder’s batting eye took a nice step forward last year from 0.56 to 0.60 and his .280 BABIP hints at a possible average increase. He’s also entering his age 27 year, and though that’s not quite as magical a number as some analysts would have you believe, a lot of catchers take a while to develop, and we could see a true breakout this year. If you’re in an NL-only league, you need to pay particular attention to Snyder, as after Brian McCann and Russell Martin, the pickings start to get slim.
Josh Hamilton
We’ve yet to write about Josh Hamilton this spring, so here you go. Analysis: he’s good, very good. The only thing seemingly holding Hamilton back from his first All-Star appearance this year is his health. We saw it last year when Hamilton was the talk of baseball after being taken in the Rule 5 draft by the Reds and hitting .292/.368/.554, but dealing with a myriad of nagging injuries. I’ve heard the theory from those in the baseball community that Hamilton’s injuries may be a result of his body being degraded by years of drug abuse, but we’ll probably never know. I wouldn’t count him out for getting 500+ at-bats this year, as one year of being injury-prone isn’t enough of a sample for us to label him as a huge injury risk for 2008. There’s certainly risk, but I’ll take that on a guy batting .455/.492/.818 as Hamilton is this spring. I’d like to see him get his EYE up above 0.60 this year (it was right around 0.50 in 2007), but the natural talent is clearly there for big things this year.
Dontrelle Willis
We won’t recommend avoiding Willis entire, as he should be a decent source for wins this year, but it’s getting ugly this spring for the D-Train – 8.64 ERA, 12:15 K:BB. Those are Barry Zito numbers. We’re not sure anyone should have expected less after Willis put up a 5.17 ERA last year and 80+ walks in each of the last two years, but he’s certainly a guy who’s catchy nickname belies the fact that he’s simply not a very good pitcher right now. Barring a hidden injury, there’s always the possibility he could rebound (Willis is still just 26), but even AL-only leaguers shouldn’t feel too comfortable with Willis until we see a couple solid starts. Remember, Mike Lowell was a salary dump by the Marlins in the Josh Beckett deal, but while Lowell thrived in Boston, I wouldn’t be expecting the same for Willis in Detroit.
Manny Ramirez
In case you haven’t noticed, Manny Ramirez is off to a nice start this year. Perhaps he’ll consider playing in Japan should the Red Sox choose to decline their team option for 2008 (just kidding there). Ramirez’s two-month stint at Athletes Performance Institute this offseason may certainly be a factor in his hot start, though skeptics may point to Manny playing for a new contract. Whatever it is, Ramirez is a guy on a mission and though we hear of these conditioning programs, diets, weight trainings, etc. every offseason, when I hear it in connection with Manny, I get intrigued. .300-30-100 could be the floor for him this year and right now, I’d go as high as $27 on him.
Kaz Matsui
I’ve always wanted to type the phrase “anal fissue”, and here’s my chance. Okay, just kidding there, but along with Felix Pie’s testicular torsion, there’s have certainly been some interesting and wince-inducing injuries this spring. Matsui was placed on the 15-day DL, meaning he’ll miss at least the first 13 games of the season recovering, a bit longer than originally anticipated. Matsui will be replaced by a combination of Mark Loretta and Geoff Blum, but this also means Hunter Pence will move into the No. 2 spot in the order, giving him a slight bump as he’ll hit between Michael Bourn and Lance Berkman. Matsui’s numbers should take a dip being away from Coors Field this year, though 25 stolen bases seems a given.
Mike Pelfrey
In somewhat of a surprise, Pelfrey was named the team’s No. 5 starter on Wednesday . Pelfrey has struggled with his location all spring and is sporting a 5.79 ERA, but the Mets aren’t confident in either Orlando Hernandez or Jorge Sosa, so Pelfrey is the winner by default. There is some interest reportedly in recently released Claudio Vargas, but he’s not exactly a top-of-the-rotation guy either, so the Mets may as well give Pelfrey a chance. He’s had zero big league success the last two years thanks in large part to a 58:51 K:BB, but the Mets thought enough of Pelfrey to draft him with a high first round pick in 2005 and give him $5.3 million, so don’t dismiss his chances entirely. He could just be a late bloomer, though at age 24, he’s not exactly an old man.
