Ryan Theriot
“The Riot” gets a huge boost in fantasy value if manager Lou Piniella’s decision to use him as the team’s leadoff hitter sticks. Piniella made that announcement Wednesday, and considering Theriot has a .355 career minor league OBP (.341 as a major leaguer), the decision may actually wind up working out. Of course this assumes the Cubs don’t acquire Brian Roberts (a big assumption), Roberts would be a natural choice to lead off for the Cubs, with Theriot likely hitting towards the bottom of the order in that scenario. Theriot, 28, offers very little in the way of long-term upside and his .202 performance in September is a concern, but that matters little for fantasy leaguers chasing cheap stolen bases.
Neil Walker
Walker is turning heads early in camp thus far, and though Jose Bautista still has to be considered the favorite to be the club’s Opening Day third baseman, don’t forget about Walker as a potential mid-season callup. He’s looked solid defensively and is 5-for-16 with three doubles so far. The 22 year-old Walker has a modest .283/.333/.430 minor league line, but he’s also a guy who’s been young for each level he’s played at in his career and was the #11 overall pick by the Pirates back in 2004. Walker will probably never be a superstar, but guys with .280-20-80 upside still have value. I particularly like the upward trend in his EYE: 0.32 from 2004-2006 and 0.64 in 2007. Very promising indeed.
Albert Pujols
Pujols homered on Wednesday for the fourth time this spring, certainly an encouraging sign considering how poorly he started last season (two spring homers and a .250 average in April). Still, a cloud of uncertainty will continue to remain concerning the elbow. At this point, when an injury to the likes of a Joel Pineiro really puts a dent in your pitching staff, you have to figure it’s going to be a long season. The Cubs have already upgraded with Fukudome and the Brian Roberts trade looks more inevitable with each passing day. The Reds should be better (thanks to their young talent, not Dusty Baker), Houston will win some games with that offense, and the Brewers look loaded. That all said, the Cardinals could be out of the race by July 1, leaving Pujols and the organization faced with the decision on whether to undergo an operation that will sideline him for eight months. What’s better, having him play through pain in a lost season and miss a good chunk (if not all) of 2008 when Chris Carpenter will be back or go under the knife quite a bit sooner and be 100% in 2009? Bank on the latter.
Rocco Baldelli
You really have to feel for Baldelli today. Baldelli announced Wednesday that he will be sidelined “indefinitely” due to a metabolic condition that he termed “life threatening” and that causes him to become exhausted after even the briefest of workouts. This may also have something to do with the inordinate number of leg injuries he’s endured over the past few years and is truly a big blow to both his future and the organization. GM Andrew Friedman all but said that the team wouldn’t be picking up Baldelli’s very reasonable $6 million option for 2009 and instead would buy him out for $4 million. 2009 and 2010 buyouts ($2 million each) would also be avoided, thus the Rays don’t think Baldelli is even worth $4 million. Considering his talent and upside, that’s probably saying they think he’s finished with the game. Very sad situation. This could mean the Rays take a second (and harder) look at Barry Bonds.
Dodgers Outfield
Pierre drew three walks in three plate appearances and stole two bases Wednesday against the Reds while Andre Ethier homered for the third time this spring. At this point, this isn’t really much of a job battle. Barring something unforeseen (trade?), Pierre will be the club’s Opening Day leadoff hitter and left fielder, especially if he mixes in walks like he did Wednesday. Ethier will be relegated to fourth outfielder status, likely getting the nod against tough right-handers in RF. We don’t expect a platoon situation here, so barring injury or trade, Ethier’s fantasy value is next to nil, home runs in spring or not.
Dodgers Third Base
Maybe $80 million or so for Adrian Beltre wouldn’t have been a bad idea. Since Beltre nearly walked away with the 2004 NL MVP and then walked away from the Dodgers at the end of year, it’s been a struggle for the club to find a hot corner replacement (wonder what kind of shape Ron Cey is in?). Andy LaRoche (finger) is probably out until July, Nomar Garciaparra is dealing with a nagging injury already, Tony Abreu is hurt and seems to have fallen out of favor with the organization anyway, and their top 3B prospect beyond LaRoche, Blake DeWitt, isn’t ready for the big leagues. That’s leading to lots of speculation that a trade could come prior to opening day. The names being floated around include Brandon Inge, Ronnie Belliard, and Joe Crede. Inge though brings contract baggage (three years, $19 million left), Belliard won’t hit enough to be more than replacement level at third, and Crede is coming off his own injuries. Here’s an idea: have Jeff Kent trade grounders at third and use Delwyn Young at second. Not the ideal defensive infield to be sure, but it’s better than dealing talent and/or taking on a burdensome contract. The Dodgers had better be careful here, or they’ll wind up resorting to seeing if Mike Edwards can be had.
Padres Outfield
With Chase Headley hitting .400, it’s unlikely the Padres can justify giving the left field job to anyone else unless his defense is that much more awful. Reviews so far this spring are mixed in that area, but it’s looking more and more likely that Headley will be the guy. He had a three-run double in three at-bats Wednesday against the Giants, leaving him 10-for-25 this spring. With Jim Edmonds out for the first part of April most likely, expect Scott Hairston to get the initial nod in center, leaving the Padres with perhaps the majors’ worst defensive outfield considering Brian Giles is no spring chicken in right. With Jody Gerut 9-for-23 with a pair of homers this spring, it appears he’ll win a backup job and perhaps contribute some NL-only value at some point this year. He’s worth a late flyer in very deep leagues. Headley though is the guy to focus on here and should he stick in the lineup all year, he’ll have a good shot at contending for NL Rookie of the Year honors.
Padres Catcher
You always worry about a hitter’s production dropping off after wrist surgery, but from all accounts, the arthroscopic procedure Josh Bard had done this offseason was very minor. He’s expected to be fully healthy headed into 2007 and already says he wants to start 130 games. With very capable backup Michael Barrett on hand, however, that seems unlikely – expect more like 110-115. Bard though is clearly option #1 and could be even better this year considering the wrist was bothering him for a good chunk of the second half (though he still managed a .316/.397/.437. Bard isn’t going to get you much power, but catchers with his eye (0.86 in 2007) are going to hold their own in terms of batting average and I could still see him reaching double-digit homer s in 2008. Strangely enough, four of Bard’s five homers last year came at Petco Park. In leagues where you start two catchers, Bard is a very solid #2.
Giants #4 and #5 starters
Noah Lowry’s injury makes it all but certain that both Jonathan Sanchez and Kevin Correia will begin the year in the rotation with Pat Misch as the proverbial #6 starter. With Lowry hopeful to return in mid-April, that will only give each guy a start or two to prove they should be the guy that sticks once Lowry returns. Despite a 5.63 ERA, Correia has been the more impressive pitcher this spring. He’s struck out seven and walked three in eight innings while Sanchez has struck out just three and walked six in his six innings. Too small a sample size of course, but Correia also gets points for going 3-1 with a 2.54 ERA in eight starts last year. Who knows though, perhaps if Barry Zito’s ERA keeps rising from its current level (17.17), the Giants will move their $126 million man to the bullpen. Just kidding.
Giants first base
In a very deep league, I saw Dan Ortmeier’s name on the available players list and pulled the trigger for one simple reason – 20/35. The 20 being Ortmeier’s HR total in Double-A three years ago, and the 35 being the number of stolen bases he had that same season. Clearly I’m not expecting anything close to that as a big leaguer, but there’s enough upside for me to still be slightly intrigued. Ortmeier appears to have won the first base job really by default, as GM Brian Sabean realizes that bringing in a barely above average veteran first baseman won’t make much of a difference. Why not let the kids play, take your lumps in 2008, get that high draft pick, and build a solid foundation. Ortmeier did hit .287 with six homers in just 157 at-bats for the club last year, though his 41:7 K:BB suggests projecting those numbers over 550 at-bats is dangerous indeed. Still, .270 with 15-20 homers and a handful of stolen bases has some value.
Austin Kearns
Kearns is starting to heat up, raising his average to .231 via a 1-for-4 (three-run homer) effort Wednesday against the Dodgers. Wily Mo Pena appears set as the left fielder and with Lastings Milledge hitting .389 this spring, he’s probably a lock for center. There was some thought that Kearns could lose his job or be traded should Elijah Dukes light things up, but that’s just not happening, so consider Kearns a lock for RF. One of these years Kearns is going to make good on my breakout prediction, and I really think 2008 is that year. He’s moving to a less pitcher-friendly park (though how it will play out is TBD), and he really came on in the second half last year - .285/.390/.461 with 11 of his 16 homers coming after the break. Kearns was really hurt by RFK Stadium last year to the tune of a .691 OPS, so you have to figure there’s improvement coming in his home/road splits. He’s also 27 if you believe in that magical number.
Brendan Harris
At age 27, Harris may be finally coming into his own, though his detractors are quick to point to a .256/.316/.397 second half last year and solid but unspectacular minor league track record, though the .365 OBP is nice. Harris is the favorite to start at second base for the Twins this year, though Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla (not necessarily in that order) could also see time at the position. Harris was 2-for-3 with a two-run homer and RBI double Wednesday against Boston and is now 6-for-22 this spring. He’ll probably open as the everyday second baseman hitting near the bottom of the order, but Harris will have to hit to hold off Casilla.
Clay Buchholz
Along with Francisco Liriano, Buchholz is another young pitcher with very lofty expectations that probably aren’t likely to be met in the short term. I suppose that’s what happens when you toss a no-hitter in your second ever big league start. Buchholz is the overwhelming favorite for the team’s No. 5 starter, though the Red Sox have Bartolo Colon in camp as an insurance policy. Buchholz hasn’t nailed down the job quite yet, and after allowing two runs in 3.2 innings Wednesday, his spring ERA stands at 9.35. Colon will make his spring debut Thursday, so we’ll probably have a better idea of this job battle then. Give the big edge to Buchholz now, but realize that even if he does win the job, he may need a little more polish (10 BB In 22.2 innings for Boston last year) before those Cy Young awards start coming.
Rockies rotation
We know the Rockies are set in the top three slots with Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook, and Ubaldo Jimenez, but there remains questions in the four and five slots. Jason Hirsh has a sore shoulder and is set to undergo an MRI on Monday, though he believes it’s simply a minor strain. A healthy Hirsh should occupy the #4 slot, and Franklin Morales appears to be the front-runner to round out what could be a surprisingly good rotation. Morales has a 9-7-3-2-3-6 line this spring. He has so much upside, and only his lack of command (119:72 K:BB last year) will get in the way of a career with #1 starter potential. I think he’s that good, though at age 22, there are sure to be growing pains along the way. If Hirsh or Morales get hurt or prove ineffective, that’s where it gets dicey. Colorado would be looking at going with Kip Wells, Mark Redman, or Josh Towers. Do we really need to say that none of the three belong anywhere near a fantasy roster?
Rockies Second Base
In a competition that is still far from over, I’ve currently penciled in Jeff Baker atop my depth chart over Jayson Nix. Baker started over Nix on Wednesday for what it’s worth, going 0-for-3 to drop his average to .250 (one homer, two doubles). Nix meanwhile went 0-for-1 and is just 2-for-15, though both hits have cleared the outfield wall. Marcus Giles, the forgotten man, is hitting .278, and prospect Ian Stewart .250, but neither appears to be much more than a minor threat to Baker/Nix. We really don’t know which direction the Rockies will go here, b ut check those boxscores daily. They will tell the story. Ultimately, this is a position that the Rockies will likely be targeting in the trade market unless someone steps forward with a vengeance.
Nate McLouth
McLouth was 3-for-3 on Wednesday to raise his spring average to .400 (8-for-20, two doubles and a home run). He’s in competition with Nyjer Morgan for the center field job, though if the competition ended today, McLouth would have to be the guy. Morgan is hitting .269 (all singles), but McLouth also has the better resume – more power, .367 minor league OBP, and an underrated 2007 with the Pirates (13 homers and 22 SB in just 329 at-bats). McLouth could be a pretty cheap source for 15/35 with full-time duty, with batting average the only real concern.
Oliver Perez
Assuming the Mets don’t extend his contract in-season, Perez could be one of the more intriguing free agents next winter. Sure, it seems unlikely Perez will again approach his magical 2004 season – 239 strikeouts, 2.98 ERA, but excepting some command problems, Perez had a very nice 2007 – 174 strikeouts, 3.56 ERA, and 15 wins. He’d been struggling with his release point this spring, but Wednesday’s outing against Baltimore was highly encouraging – four innings, three hits, one run, zero walks, and one strikeout. All this talk about the Mets’ rotation being thin after Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez had begtter wake up and realize that Perez and John Maine could pitch at or near the top of many teams’ rotations. I look at Perez as a left-handed version of Carlos Zambrano with a slightly higher degree of risk.
Johnny Cueto
If Cueto is not on the club’s Opening Day roster, then it will not be for lack of performance, but for monetary reasons (delaying his debut a couple months also delays his arbitration eligibility). Cueto tossed four more scoreless innings on Wednesday and has now allowed one run over nine innings, with six hits allowed, one walk, and eight strikeouts. Cueto is obviously a guy to target in keeper/dynasty leagues, and the way things are looking, he’s worth a late-round pick in 12-team non-keeper mixed leagues. The upside is just too huge to ignore.
Alex
Mar 12, 08 at 11:38 PM
Thank you for sharing this stuff