Preseason Blog - March 21, 2008
Vlad Guerrero - Vlad was removed from the game yesterday with stiffness in his right knee. He'll take a couple of days off before he resumes his baseball activities. I think Vlad is perceived as an aging veteran with potential injury concerns in many fantasy circles. Part of the reason is his appearance on the field isn't always a pretty sight (his gawkiness just looks like he's always hurt). But here are a few statistical facts that will hopefully ease your concerns going into the draft and into the 2008 season. Over the last four seasons, Vlad has averaged 578 AB per season, 100 runs, 119 RBI, 33 HR, AVG of .327, OPS of .955, and FPI of 0.82. That's good for a HR/AB of 17.7 and EYE of 0.93. I think I'll take those 4-year averages and apply them to my 2008 any day. Now that his ability to get into the game and produce is addressed, I do want to talk briefly about a negative power trend. Take a look at his HR/AB chronology since 2004: 15.7, 16.3, 18.4, and 21.3. Also look at his OPS decline in the same time period: .987, .954, .932, and .945. Last year's OPS spiked a little, because his OBP climbed to .398 with 21 incremental walks from the 2006 season (71 BB vs. 50). Declining HR/AB and OPS rates and steadily increasing BB totals for power hitters can be indicative of an overall loss in production value.
BJ Ryan - Ryan's draft value continues to decline as news out of Blue Jays camp indicates it is increasing unlikely for him to be ready for opening day. He is experiencing some minor soreness in his arm (biceps) and the Jays will hold him out of spring training games for a bit. Coming off of 2007 Tommy John surgery, it was doubtful that he would be 100% by the start of the '08 season anyway. We'll track the progress of Ryan over the next couple of weeks, but for now, he is dropping significantly in your drafts and Jeremy Accardo's value should appreciate. If Ryan drops too low, consider grabbing him at a good value since the Blue Jays are still admitting confidence in Ryan's overall health.
Jeremy Accardo - With BJ Ryan's inability to fully recover from Tommy John surgery in time for the start of the Blue Jays' season, Jeremy Accardo will likely get the call in the 9th inning in the short-term. Accardo slipped into the closer role well last year, hurling 67 IP and earning 30 saves while posting a 2.15 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and recording 57 K's. If you haven't drafted yet, Accardo will likely fly up draft boards and if he's still available in your league, grab him. Ryan's injuries could be ongoing for the season and Accardo has proven he can handle the job.
BJ Upton -Nothing serious here, but Upton left the game on Thursday after being hit on the left elbow with a pitch from Paul Byrd. Ah... makes you feel better when the guy throwing it was Paul Byrd, doesn't it? He does have a triceps contusion, but is simply considered day-to-day. This definitely isn't an injury that should diminish his draft-day value. Upton's 2007 breakout revealed power, speed, and average from a 2B/OF eligible future fantasy stud. He hit .300 with an .892 OPS, 0.78 FPI, 24 HR, and 22 SB in 474 AB. Upton's BHIPx was .341 (quite inflated from his .300 average), so we expect a significant drop-off in the average department to something around .280 for '08. Don't let that deter you from picking him in the late 2nd / early 3rd rounds. 6 months from now, I wouldn't be surprised to see him sitting at 30/30 and flirting with 100 RBI and 100 runs.
Kerry Wood - I could feel Cubs fans' collective gasp yesterday when Kerry Wood reemerged after admitting to back spasms on Wednesday. Really? Wood got hurt and is back the next day? He pitched an uneventful inning against the Rockies on Thursday, but the good news is that this back issue doesn't seem serious if sweet Lou Piniella was willing to march him back out to the mound 24-hours after the spasms. I think I actually believe Wood when he says he's healthy. He has yet to walk a batter this spring, showing his control, command, and certainly his health. Wood seems to be the favorite to win the closer job on the North-side of Chicago, but if history is any indication, injuries will side-line him at some point this season that could possibly give Carlos Marmol a chance to show off his stuff. Time will tell.
Miguel Tejada - Tejada banged a HR for the 2nd straight day and is heating it up in spring training games with the Astros. At 31 years old and coming off one of the worst seasons of his career (not to mention the off-season steroid controversy), Tejada becomes an interesting pick on multiple levels. He's averaging 7th round consideration on draft-day, but be careful not to overvalue him for name recognition. We have him projected for a .300 season, 20 HR, 97 RBI with a little upside in HR going to a better lineup and staying in a HR-friendly ballpark in Houston (104 ballpark factor compared to 106 in Baltimore - difference is negligible). For my money, I wait on SS if the other 6 (Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Troy Tulowitzki, Derek Jeter, and Carlos Guillen) are already off the board. Of course, if Tejada starts to drop, grab him for good value, but I think there is some risk that ongoing controversy could be a distracting factor for Tejada throughout the season that could lead to lackluster fantasy results.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - An interesting scheduling anomaly gives Dice-K a slight edge (all else equal) on draft-day among his fellow 2nd/3rd tier pitchers. If you play in head-to-head leagues and your commissioner has decided to count next week's Red Sox/A's games in Japan, Dice-K may become a rare 3-start pitcher for the first scoring period in weekly leagues. He'll get the nod for Tuesday's game in Japan for sure. When the Sox return to U.S. soil, they'll play on the west coast on Tuesday, April 1st (again, against the A's) followed by a series in Toronto for the weekend. If Beckett isn't ready for the U.S. opening day in Oakland, Dice-K could get the start on Tuesday April 1st and then again on his regularly scheduled start day of Sunday, April 6th against the Blue Jays. My gut says the Red Sox will be careful with Beckett for the first week of the season and then save him for the home opener at Fenway Park on Tuesday, April 8th.
Homer Bailey - From fantasy hype to a fall from grace, Homer Bailey is now battling for the #5 spot in the Reds rotation with teammates Josh Fogg and Matt Belisle. Johnny Cueto (up and coming prospect) and Edinson Volquez (the pitching prospect the Rangers traded for Josh Hamilton, because, for some reason, the Rangers thought they needed another bat and they were fine in the pitching department) have secured the #3 and #4 spots. I would be shocked if Bailey is anywhere other than Louisville (Triple-A) to start the season. He has great strikeout potential and has been hyped by scouts for years for his electric stuff and solid command, but his struggles in 2007 and his inability to impress new Reds manager Dusty Baker has left him as the possible odd-man out. A brief stint back in Triple-A to start the season could prove useful for Bailey before returning to the big leagues. In 9 starts in 2007, Bailey failed to earn a quality start and posted a 5.76 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and K/BB of just 1.0.
Tim Hudson - Hudson has looked really good this spring and yesterday's outing was no exception. He hurled six strong innings and allowed one unearned run to the Tigers. Since joining the Braves three years ago, Hudson has averaged 212 IP per season, 3.91 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 129 K's, and 14 wins. His K/9 during that period is a modest 5.5, but he keeps his BB/9 total low at just 2.8 and his HR/9 of 0.78. It seems that Hudson has been around forever, but he's just 32 and can certainly put up another 200+ IP season. In fact, we forecast him put in 217 IP, 3.64 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 15 W, and 125 K's for the upcoming season. Consider him a top 40 starter and a solid pick in the early-teen rounds in vanilla mixed league drafts.
News out of Nationals Camp
John Patterson - The big news out of Nationals camp was the outright cut of pitcher John Patterson. Washington assessed Patterson's ability to return to his 2005 stats (185 K's, 3.13 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) and decided that his arm problems just weren't getting better. Instead, the Nats will go with a rotation of 5 from the following list of potential starters: Shawn Hilll, Jason Bergmann, Matt Chico, Odalis Perez, Tim Redding, John Lannan, Joel Hanrahan, and Mike O'Connor. For Patterson to be in such bad shape that the team would rather select 5 of those guys rather than continue to take a chance on a former pitching star should scream volumes about his health. I'm sure Patterson will land with a team somewhere, but while he entered the 2008 season as a deep flier in some leagues, his fantasy value is now officially done.
Nick Johnson - Johnson hit his first HR of the spring on Thursday and looks to be in relatively good health entering the 2008 season. He's a late-rounder flier, but we all know Johnson's inability to stay healthy. He didn't play at all in 2007 and has only recorded 500 AB or more once in his career over the last 8 years. There are too many serviceable first basemen on the wires to give Johnson much value on draft day (especially in mixed leagues). With 491 AB forecasted for Johnson (so basically assuming he stays healthy for most of the season), we forecast him to hit the 20 HR mark in the new Nats park with 70 RBI and a .270 average. Nothing special coming out of 1B, but not a terrible option to fill-in your corner spot.
News out of Yankees Camp
"The Other Rookie" - Its tough to read anything about the Yankees without hearing about either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain. There hasn't been this much hype about youngsters in the Yankee organization since the mid-90's. But little has been reported about Ian Kennedy, who will likely be the 5th starter in the rotation (behind Chien Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, and Hughes). The 23-year-old righty isn't the power that Hughes and Joba bring to the table. Think of Kennedy as a young Mussina who can spot his curve and change-up and can change speeds to keep hitters off-balance. On Thursday, he hurled 4.1 IP against the Blue Jays and gave up 1 ER on 6 hits while striking out 4 and walking none. Control will be the key for Kennedy throughout the season, as well as his ability to handle the pressure on the big stage. He'll likely go undrafted in your league on draft day, but with a stellar Yankees lineup giving him plenty of run support throughout the season, he'll be an interesting rookie to keep an eye-on for spot-starts.
Alex Rodriguez - One of the more popular questions I have received this spring from Fantistics subscribers is if there is ANY reason to consider anyone other than Alex Rodriguez with the first pick of the draft. Yes - if you're in an NL-only league (its a joke). Otherwise, absolutely not. There are a few factors at work here. Let's first discuss the qualitative / psychological effects of having the 1st pick of serpentine drafts. If you don't pick A-Rod and he amazingly duplicates last year's numbers, you miss out and you kick yourself (not to mention looking terrible in front of your league-mates). Now for some stat talk - Even if he performs at 10% less than he did last year across the board, he's still worthy of that first pick (doing some quick-and-dirty math, he posted a 0.94 FPI last season - 10% offense cuts given the same total # of AB would still give him a 0.80+ FPI). Finally - health and injury. The alternative picks (Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Matt Holliday) all bring a youth factor to the table that potentially could lead to inconsistent results. A-Rod consistently puts up huge numbers, is as healthy if not healtheir than the alternatives, and plays for a team that produces every year (so plenty of run and RBI opportunities on top of the HR production). So, while it sometimes pays to be different in fantasy baseball, you have nothing to gain and just about everything to lose by NOT picking A-Rod with the #1 pick. So for all of you A-Rod haters, Red Sox nation members, and bitter Mariner and Ranger fans, you'll just have to suck-it-up for the next 6 months and cheer, cheer for 'ol Alex Rodriguez.
News out of White Sox Camp
White Sox 2nd Base Battle - The 2B position on the south-side of Chicago seems to be getting clearer. Danny Richar will start the regular season on the disabled list with a stress fracture near his left rib. Juan Uribe, the former Sox SS before Orlando Cabrera joined the team, was reportedly placed on waivers on Wednesday but there is still no official word of his release from the Sox. That leaves Cuban rookie Alexei Ramirez as the favorite to win the spot. He's hitting .400 (15-for-41) this spring and reportedly had incredible skills at SS (as I wrote about last week), but there are some concerns about his ability to switch to the other side of the bag. AL-only consideration at this point and nothing else.
Mark Buehrle - Buehrle hurled 5.0 IP of solid ball, giving up 1 ER and 5 hits while fanning 5 and walking 2. There's something to say about health and consistency out of a starting pitcher and Buehrle is the epitome of both. He has averaged over 225 IP since 2001 (with each year recording 200+ innings) and consistently hits double-digit W totals. Forecasted this year for another 200 IP season, consider him a solid candidate for 13 W, 3.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 120 K's. Taking the mound in a notoriously bad pitcher's park, Buehrle still manages to put up solid numbers. I'd be happy to come away with him as my #3 SP on draft day.
